The Milwaukee Brewers have struck gold with Kyle Harrison, and he's in a prime spot against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.
My Cardinals vs. Brewers predictions expect the southpaw to stifle St. Louis' offense to cover the spread while also hitting the Under with our MLB picks for Tuesday, May 26.
Who will win Cardinals vs Brewers today: Brewers -1.5 (+123)
The Milwaukee Brewers will win this game, but I do not like the moneyline juice at -178 or worse.
St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy is playing with fire, and his 2.40 ERA is fool's gold. He boasts an expected ERA of 5.86 (ninth percentile) and relies on opponents hitting the ball directly at the defenders behind him.
So far, that's been successful... but it isn't sustainable. Not when he's getting barreled in the 18th percentile with a 41.1% hard-hit rate (37th percentile). Eventually, that hard contact will translate into some crooked numbers.
What the Brewers lack in power, they make up for with contact and speed.
Even if McGreevy continues to outpitch his peripherals, the St. Louis bullpen owns a 4.41 ERA (22nd in MLB) and a 20.2% strikeout rate (25th). Ideally, this line doesn't go any shorter, but I'd play it to +115.
COVERS INTEL: Kyle Harrison’s Milwaukee glow-up features 95th-percentile strikeout and hard-hit rates. Trust his elite swing-and-miss profile to lock in both the Brewers -1.5 and Under 7.5.
Cardinals vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+105)
Harrison was always a pitcher with promise. The lefty raced through the San Francisco Giants system, showed flashes of success after reaching the majors in 2023, but never lived up to his potential. He was one of the key pieces sent to Boston in the Rafael Devers trade, but was unceremoniously dumped to Milwaukee for Caleb Durbin this offseason.
Well, as has become custom, the Brewers have unlocked the version of Harrison that Giants fans caught glimpses of. Unlike the aforementioned McGreevy, everything looks good under the hood, as well.
Harrison's 1.77 ERA isn't sustainable, but an xERA of 2.96 tells us that he's not suddenly going to transform into a pumpkin. The southpaw is inducing chase and whiff at strong levels, and the Cardinals' offense has been woefully wobbly of late after punching above its weight class to start the season.
Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera, and Masyn Winn have all handled lefties well this season, but Walker also has a near-30% K-rate against southpaws. Given Harrison's leveling up and the Brewers' solid bullpen behind him, I like the Under to -105.
- ML/RL bets: 1-0, +0.67 units
- Over/Under bets: 1-0, +1.05 units
Cardinals vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Cardinals +170 | Brewers -178
- Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-133) | Brewers -1.5 (+127)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-117) | Under 7.5 (+113)
Cardinals vs Brewers trend
The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the run line in 30 of their last 50 games (+14.10 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Brewers.
How to watch Cardinals vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Tuesday, May 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Cardinals.TV, Brewers.TV |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Michael McGreevy (3-3, 2.40 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Kyle Harrison (5-1, 1.77 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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