Two World Series hopefuls are set to hit the diamond as the Milwaukee Brewers head to Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles.
With Baltimore coming off a three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox, the Orioles are the favorites, but the 8-3 Brewers have their ace taking the mound in what should be a tantalizing matchup.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and Brewers vs. Orioles predictions on Friday, April 12.
Brewers vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 strikeouts (+100 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The big news in the MLB this week was No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday getting called up to the majors to make his debut against the BoSox. The 20-year-old Holliday is off to a difficult start with zero hits in eight at-bats through two games.
While the Baltimore hopeful expect him to find his groove soon, it may not come in the first game of a three-game series with the NL Central-leading Brewers. Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy has All-Star Freddy Peralta set to start in Baltimore and he’s poised to rack up the Ks and go Over 6.5 strikeouts.
In two starts this year, the 27-year-old Peralta has 15 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings pitched and sits fifth in the MLB with 11.6 Ks per nine innings. The four-seam throwing ace is off to a hot start after an impressive season last year, in which he was 10th in the MLB in strikeouts with 210 in 165 2/3 innings pitched and fourth in Ks per nine with 11.4.
Obviously, this Orioles lineup won’t be easy to strikeout — which is why Peralta’s odds aren’t shorter — but for as good as Baltimore looked against Boston, this team has struggled. The Orioles are just 17th in the MLB in batting average (.236) and 19th in hits (98).
While Baltimore has only struck out 91 times, it hasn’t faced a pitcher throwing heat quite like Peralta yet this season. The Brewers righty predominantly uses two pitches with his four-seamer 55% of the time and his slider 26.1% of the time.
So far, opponents are batting just .217 against the four-seamer with nine strikeouts and .000 with five strikeouts against the slider. That doesn’t bode well for a Baltimore lineup that’s in the top half of the league in whiff percentage (27%), swing percentage (48.6%), and chase percentage (29.4%).
The concern would be Peralta not going long enough to hit this prop, but against a lineup with six batters hitting under .230, he’s in good shape to go at least six innings and put up his third straight game of more than 6.5 strikeouts.
Brewers vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 strikeouts
Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 hits
Christian Yelich Over 0.5 hits
While Peralta is in position for a nice night, that doesn’t mean Baltimore’s All-Star Adley Rutschman won’t get his against the Brewers. The catcher is second on the Orioles in hits (13) and has seen success against both of Peralta’s go-to pitches. He’s batting .400 against sliders this season after hitting .331 against four-seamers last year.
As for Milwaukee’s bats, Christian Yelich looks like he’s having a bounce-back year with 12 hits and five home runs in 10 games. He’s batting .316 and hammers two of Baltimore starter Tyler Wells’ top pitches. Yelich hit .331 against four-seamers and .340 against cutters last season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Orioles odds
Brewers vs Orioles live odds
Brewers vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 -210 | Baltimore -1.5 +175
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +100 | Baltimore -120
- Over/Under: Over 8 -115 | Under 8 -105
Brewers vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- After sweeping Boston, the Orioles opened as a -120 moneyline favorite against the Brewers.
- Both teams are among the best squads in baseball so far this season, with Milwaukee 8-3 and Baltimore 8-4.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 7.5 with some books coming up to 8. The Under can be had for plus-money at a few books.
- The Orioles and Brewers are both in the top half of the league for hitting the Over with Baltimore doing it six times in 12 games and Milwaukee hitting it seven times in 11 games.
Brewers vs Orioles trend
The Brewers have hit the moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Orioles
Brewers vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Friday, 4-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (1-0, 3.09 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Tyler Wells (1-4, 3.40 ERA) |
Brewers vs Orioles latest injuries
Brewers vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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