It’s a massive showdown in the NL Central as the first-place Milwaukee Brewers take on the second-place Chicago Cubs on the road at Wrigley Field.
A pitching duel highlights my Brewers vs. Cubs predictions as Freddy Peralta and Javier Assad go toe to toe.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks on Sunday, May 5.
Brewers vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Freddy Peralta Over 7.5 strikeouts (+115 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Milwaukee Brewers righty Freddy Peralta has been a flamethrower through his first six starts, ranking seventh in the NL in strikeouts (45) and third in MLB in K/9 (12.0). The All-Star hurler has brought his best stuff with a 3.21 ERA across 33 2/3 innings and a career-low 0.861 WHIP.
While he’s coming off two of his lesser starts this season and hasn’t gone Over 7.5 strikeouts in three straight, this inconsistent Chicago Cubs lineup is the perfect opportunity to bounce back.
For as strong as the Cubs have been this season, they rank in the middle of the pack in the majors in most batting categories. That’s great news for Peralta backers with him likely needing to go more than six innings to cash this prop — the odds imply a 46.51% probability.
The Cubs are just 19th in batting average (.236) and 16th in hits (267) with the 11th-most strikeouts (294). With a team whiff percentage of 26.75% and a chase percentage of 56.4%, the Cubbies are going to be swinging against Peralta’s four-seamer.
The Brewers pitcher loves to lean on his four-seamer — he isn't called "Fastball Freddy" for nothing — using it 52.2% of the time, and it’s paid off. Opponents have struck out 24 times.
His slider (30.7%), changeup (10.1%), and curveball (7%) have been even better. Batters are hitting below .170 against all three and his slider has been especially devastating. Teams are batting .054 against it with 17 strikeouts.
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Brewers vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Freddy Peralta Over 7.5 strikeouts
Javier Assad Over 1.5 walks
William Contreras Over 0.5 hits
This is a great pitching duel in the NL Central with Javier Assad off to a wicked start for Chi-Town. But for as good as he’s been, the Brew Crew are one MLB's most patient teams and should be able to draw their fair share of walks.
Milwaukee is second in OBP (.336) and seventh in walks (121), while Assad has issued at least three walks in two of his last five games. The biggest scare for him at the plate will be William Contreras, who should be able to continue his over 1-hit per game pace.
The All-Star catcher leads Milwaukee in pretty much every batting category and has the 10th-highest average in the league (.336) with at least one hit in six straight games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Cubs odds
Brewers vs Cubs live odds
Brewers vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee -1.5 (+150) | Chicago +1.5 (-180)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -125 | Chicago +105
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-110)
Brewers vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Brewers opened as a -120 to -133 moneyline favorite. The line has seen little movement with most books offering Milwaukee -125.
- The Brewers are 20-12 on the season and 3-1 in their last four while the Cubs are one game back at 20-14.
- With this pitching matchup, the Over/Under opened low at 6.5 and hasn’t budged.
- The Brewers have been the best Over teams in the MLB this season at 19-12-1, but the Cubs have been far less consistent at 15-18-1.
Brewers vs Cubs trend
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 92 games (+9.25 Units / 8% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs
Brewers vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Sunday, 5-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Wisconsin, Marquee |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (3-0, 3.21 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Javier Assad (2-0, 1.97 ERA) |
Brewers vs Cubs latest injuries
Brewers vs Cubs weather
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