Fireworks erupted Friday night at Fenway Park, with the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox combining for a dozen runs in an 8-4 Astros victory.
Today’s weather forecast calls for hot, humid, and very windy conditions, which is why my Astros vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for this AL matchup expect another high-scoring affair on Saturday, August 10.
Astros vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Over 10.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox combined for a dozen runs on Friday night, and the 10.5 run total suggests more of the same this afternoon.
That’s a big total but the forecast calls for a hot and humid day with strong winds blowing out to right-center field, and that’s going to make life difficult this afternoon for Houston righty Spencer Arrighetti and Boston’s bullpen game featuring opener Josh Winckowski.
Arrighetti has great off-speed stuff with a high strikeout rate (26.4%), but his command has been shaky this season. The rookie walks 4.50 per nine but the curveball and changeup fuel his 10.5 punchouts per nine.
The big strikeout numbers aside, Arrighetti struggles against left-handed bats. Southpaws boast a .370 OBP with a .364 BABIP and have bashed seven of the rookie’s 13 bombs allowed.
Arrighetti could see as many as seven Red Sox lefties and with the wind blowing out, their MLB-leading .322 BABIP suggests the Houston hurler could be in for a short day.
Winckowski will likely open the game before turning things over to the Boston bullpen. The 26-year-old righty issues 3.52 walks per nine innings with eight earned runs across his past 14 1/3 frames.
The problem won’t be Winckowski as much as it will be the Boston bullpen; since the All-Star break, Boston relievers has allowed 46 earned runs and 11 bombs with an MLB-worst 11 blown saves.
That’s not going to get it done against Houston. The Astros offense has struggled since the break, but they’ve scored 21 runs through the first four games of this road trip and average 4.39 runs per game away from Space City.
Today’s shaky pitching matchups combined with the weather forecast should lead to a high-scoring affair in Beantown today.
Astros vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 10.5
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases
Spencer Arrighetti Under 16.5 outs
I like the Over today with Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers having a big day, which should lead to an early hook for Arrighetti.
Devers has cleared his 1.5 total bases prop in seven of his past 10. Devers post-break .398 OBP and .390 BABIP along with his 1.080 home OPS against righties leads me to believe he’ll have a big day at the plate.
Arrighetti is 1-6 away from Houston and his woes against lefties should lead to an early hook windy day at Fenway against possibly seven Red Sox southpaws.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Red Sox odds
Astros vs Red Sox live odds
Astros vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-170) | Boston -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: Houston +110 | Boston -130
- Over/Under: Over 10.5 -105 | Under 10.5 -115
Astros vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Astros have hit the moneyline in 27 of their last 42 games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI) and are trading as high as +105.
- The Red Sox have hit the moneyline in 28 of their last 47 games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI) with odds ranging from -120 to -122.
- Over 10.5 bettors will find odds from +100 to -115 while Under markets are trading odds from -110 to -122.
Astros vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have hit the Over in 39 of their last 59 games (+19.00 Units / 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Red Sox.
Astros vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Spencer Arrighetti (4-10, 5.33 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Josh Winckowski (2-1, 3.44 ERA) |
Astros vs Red Sox latest injuries
Astros vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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