Sal Stewart got on me on the board early yesterday, and there's still enough time before the NHL season arrives to dig out of this slight hole and crush some September home run props.
The Guardians offense gets a lay-up matchup vs. a dinger-friendly Triple-A arm, and Alex Bregman might not see Chase Burns more than once, and will get to tee off on the Reds' bullpen at Great American Ball Park.
These are my favorite MLB player props for Friday, Sept. 18.
MLB home run props for today
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Jo Adell
Alex Bregman
Home run prediction: Jo Adell (19%)
Let's pick on Mason Barnett, who was just recalled from Triple-A but has already given up 12 homers in 40 big-league innings this year and has a worse ERA away from Sutter Health Park, which is tough to do.
The reason for his demotion: He allowed 25 runs in 20-plus innings across his previous six games, with seven dingers given up.
Jo Adell is the target and has two homers over his last three games. The former Halo has also seen Barnett twice this season during his time with the Angels.
The hitting weather is not great across the board today, so I want guys with elite power, and that's Adell for this lineup. I'm willing to play this to 4.9x, with a fair probability of 21.3%.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Guardians.TV, NBCSCA
Home run prediction: Alex Bregman (16%)
Let's take Alex Bregman at 6.44x with a fair price of 5.8x.
It might look like a tough matchup against Chase Burns, but the Cincinnati pitcher has thrown three innings in back-to-back starts and is getting scaled back as he approaches a career high in innings pitched. These prices are acting like Burns will go 18 outs, and that's not true.
The Reds' bullpen was busy yesterday after Brady Singer stunk up the joint, and the middle innings could be tee time for the Cubs at one of the best hitting settings in baseball today.
Bregman has hit 17 bombs already this second half, and only three other players can say they have more taters than Bregman in the second half.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Reds.TV, Marquee Sports Network
- HR picks: 39-141, -11.3 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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