My MLB moneyline predictions for this decent-sized Thursday slate, which features plenty of heavy favorites, are anchored by the Chicago Cubs. However, there are still some value opportunities to attack.
I’ve broken down the full board to determine which favorites are worth laying the juice on, and where bettors should think twice before paying the premium.
Before we dive in, check out all our MLB picks for September 18.
MLB moneyline picks for September 18
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Royalsvs  Pirates |
64% |
 Cubsvs  Reds |
56% |
 Brewersvs  Orioles |
43% |
 Red Soxvs  Rays |
56% |
 A'svs  Guardians |
68% |
 Philliesvs  Mets |
52% |
 Tigersvs  White Sox |
46% |
 Blue Jaysvs  Rangers |
56% |
 Marinersvs  Rockies |
37% |
 Bravesvs  Astros |
53% |
 Nationalsvs  Cardinals |
51% |
 Twinsvs  Angels |
51% |
 Marlinsvs  Padres |
66% |
 Yankeesvs  Diamondbacks |
50% |
 Giantsvs  Dodgers |
26% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 18.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 18
Royals vs Pirates: Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates win probability: 64%
The Pirates should rightfully be favored in this spot, even with Paul Skenes having an extremely down season. Their bats are far hotter than the Royals, who have posted just a 60 wRC+ over their last six games. Plus, Randy Dobnak owns a 5.09 ERA over his last three starts.
For the first time in a while, I feel like we can trust Skenes and the Pirates’ bats.
Cubs vs Reds: Chicago Cubs
Cubs win probability: 56%
Real simple: Who cares that Chase Burns is pitching when he draws a Cubs lineup that owns a 140 wRC+, .866 OPS and .226 ISO over its last six games? Meanwhile, the Reds have posted a below-average wRC+ during that stretch while striking out at a 25.4% rate.
Cubs or nothing.
Brewers vs Orioles: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles win probability: 43%
The Birds may be worth a look here, as Cade Povich has been pretty solid as of late, sporting a 2.57 ERA while doing a great job limiting hard-hit balls. Meanwhile, Dustin May has a 4.01 expected ERA while allowing a 12.5% barrel rate to opposing hitters during that same stretch.
The Brewers’ bats have been pretty hot, but Pete Alonso has been on a tear and I already like him to boom tonight, so I’m leaning with the Orioles here.
Red Sox vs Rays: Tampa Bay Rays
Rays win probability: 56%
The Boston Red Sox have just a 76 wRC+, .121 ISO and .624 OPS over their last six games, while the Rays are on Mars.
Ranger Suarez has been great for Boston as of late, but Ian Seymour should be able to hold everything down for the Rays’ offense. Seymour has some great underlying metrics that point to progression. Over his last five starts, he has posted a 2.67 expected ERA.
A's vs Guardians: Cleveland Guardians
Guardians win probability: 68%
Guardians or nothing here. I already love Jo Adell and Nate Lowe in this matchup against A’s right-hander Mason Barnett, who has a 13.09 ERA and 2.46 WHIP over his last three outings.
The A’s bats are frozen, so there is nothing pointing toward trusting them in this matchup other than the price.
Phillies vs Mets: New York Mets
Mets win probability: 52%
Between these two teams, the New York Mets have clearly been the better team at the dish over their last 12 games, posting a 112 wRC+, 44% hard-hit rate and .738 OPS. The Phillies’ bats have gone cold over their last 21 games, and Zac Thornton has played his best ball at home this season.
Although it’s a disappointment, the Mets are the side this evening.
Tigers vs White Sox: Detroit Tigers
Tigers win probability: 46%
I am truly conflicted. Are the White Sox bats back, or was last night a fluke?
The Tigers’ offense has been far more consistent over their last 12 games than the White Sox, making them worth a sprinkle as an underdog.
With how poorly the South Siders have been playing, fading them and taking the dog is probably the safer move.
Blue Jays vs Rangers: Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays win probability: 56%
Dylan Cease day, while the Blue Jays’ bats are red hot?! Blue Jays or nothing here, folks!
The Blue Jays have been humming over their last 21 games, sporting a 118 wRC+, .338 wOBA and .762 OPS during that stretch.
The Rangers send out Kumar Rocker to try and cool the Birds’ bats off. Good luck!
Mariners vs Rockies: Colorado Rockies
Rockies win probability: 37%
There is something magical about a ball game at Coors Field on a Friday evening when the Pebbles are rocking. I like the hometown team here. Their bats have been hot, and Ryan Feltner has some strong underlying metrics pointing toward progression. Over his last five starts, the right-hander owns a 2.90 xERA while allowing a hard-hit rate under 30%.
Plus, paying that much juice on an unreliable team? Pass. Go Rocks!
Braves vs Astros: Atlanta Braves
Braves win probability: 53%
A great price to back the Atlanta Braves, who send out Tyler Mahle this evening. The right-hander has been lights out over his last five starts, sporting a 1.44 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP.
The Braves’ bats finally have a spark over their last few games. Maybe they can keep that momentum going against Astros starter Peter Lambert, who sports a 6.33 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across his last five starts.
Nationals vs Cardinals: Washington Nationals
Nationals win probability: 51%
Is it insane to lean into the contract discussions Cade Cavalli and the Nationals are actively having? No? Good. That is why the Nationals are the play here. Cavalli is a nail. He has not been nails, he is one.
Over his last five outings, he has posted a 1.92 ERA, 2.42 xERA and 0.79 WHIP while limiting hard-hit balls. The Cardinals’ bats are ice cold, and Cavalli should shut them down early.
Twins vs Angels: Minnesota Twins
Twins win probability: 51%
Grayson Rodriguez is BACK! To being bad.
Over the right-hander’s last three outings, he is allowing a hard-hit rate of nearly 50% while posting a 6.46 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. I love Twins veteran Josh Bell in this matchup, and the rest of the Twins’ lineup should contribute as well. Twins or nothing here.
Marlins vs Padres: San Diego Padres
Padres win probability: 66%
There is no reason to get in front of this freight train. That being the Padres offense, which is easily the hottest in baseball, they have a 163 wRC+, .401 wOBA, and .935 OPS over their last six games. No team can match that at the moment. On top of that, Nick Pivetta has been very solid all season, posting a 2.73 xERA on the year.
Padres or nothing.
Yankees vs Diamondbacks: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks win probability: 50%
Yankees former ace Gerrit Cole has been horrible in his last three starts, owning a 6.48 ERA, 6.86 xERA and 1.44 WHIP. Yes, while allowing a TON of hard-hit balls.
The Diamondbacks’ bats have been red hot as of late and should tee off against a struggling, heavy-fastball pitcher.
Giants vs Dodgers: San Francisco Giants
Giants win probability: 26%
We do not pay that much juice for a team to secure a win. Plus, the Giants are playing for nothing other than the chance to upset their arch rival.
San Francisco has been playing some solid ball as of late, too. Over their last six games, they have a near-120 wRC+, .334 wOBA and .751 OPS.
Why not take a chance on the dog?
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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