Best NFL Picks Today

Playable to 55%.

Tuten has received every rush attempt for Jacksonville inside the 10-yard line that has gone to the running back position this fall.

The Colts traded away star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner earlier this week, further weakening a defensive line that already ranked in the bottom-10 in most metrics against the run.

Even when Simmons was in the mix, Tennessee had allowed six scores to rival RBs. Brown has only one touchdown in 2026 despite 13 carries and three receptions in the red zone. Due that drought, we’re getting a discount on his ATTD market in Week 8. His TD forecasts range between 60% and 78%, given he’s a threat to run one in or catch a touchdown passes. 

Concepcion anytime TD is playable up to 25%. He leads Cleveland in targets and catches, also gets designed rushing touches, and faces a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 29th in missed tackles.

This Over is in play up to 56% because Murray has a respectable 66.7 completion percentage and ranks sixth in completion percentage over expectation over the past five weeks. The Lions have also surrendered the second-most passing completion despite playing just six games, and Detroit has allowed the fifth-highest dropback success rate.

Pitts anytime TD is playable up to 27%. He leads Atlanta with four touchdown catches, Tampa Bay has allowed five scores to tight ends, and Bijan Robinson and Drake London help create favorable one-on-one matchups.

The Cardinals run one of the highest rates of zone coverage and Lamb is excellent at spotting seams in that defense. He’s not only a downfield threat but also a catch-and-run weapon, exploiting an Arizona defense giving up the seventh most yards after the catch. The Cardinals have given up 10 touchdowns to WRs (second most) and Lambs’ TD forecasts for Week 8 all sit at 60% or higher, with some projections at 80%. 

I recommend this Over up to 46.5 because the Raiders and Jets send out two of the worst defenses in the league. Las Vegas has allowed the highest offensive success rate while ranking 32nd in defensive DVOA over the past five weeks, and New York has been nearly as bad with respective 26th-ranked marks in the metrics during the same stretch.

Going back to November 2024, Allen has rushed for at least 30 yards in nine of the previous 14 games with closing spreads of four points or shorter. He’s averaged more than 43 yards rushing in those contests. His Week 8 projections range from 29 yards to a ceiling of 40.5 yards rushing, with my number at 38.5 gains on the ground and giving plenty of respect to the higher forecasts.

The Chargers are coming off the bye, meaning embattled offensive wizard Mike McDaniel had a week to tinker. Look for that to mean plays for Vidal, who has seen his time and targets increase as he takes them from fellow RB Omarion Hampton. 

I recommend this Henry Over up to 41.5 receiving yards because Miami has allowed 29 receptions and a league-high 93.5% catch rate to tight ends over the past three weeks. Henry has also recorded 40 or more receiving yards in four straight while catching 19 of 21 targets for an average of 56.3 yards per game, and he ranks fifth in EPA per target and third in catch rate among tight ends for the year.

I recommend this touchdown prop to 35% after Coleman handled a 49% snap share and sparked Denver to a fourth-ranked rushing DVOA in Week 7. Head coach Sean Payton is looking to give Coleman more touches, and veteran rusher J.K. Dobbins has dipped to just 3.2 yards per carry over the last three weeks. Coleman's high-end 0.12 EPA per rush and physical between-the-tackles style make him the best option for red-zone looks in the Denver backfield.

At 29%, I'll hit the button on Jayden Daniels to score a touchdown, as I make him closer to 36% to find the end zone against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Vic Fangio likes to play man coverage near the goal line to take away quick-hitting routes like slants and fades. With defenders focused on their assignments, Daniels has an opportunity to exploit the coverage, escape the pocket, and run his way into the end zone.

Let’s pick on this Bears pass defense. Chicago hasn’t faced many elite receivers this season, but now gets JSN on his home field. He’s reached 100 yards in six of seven games, averaging a ridiculous 123.8. The Bears rank dead last in yards allowed per pass attempt and have surrendered a league-high nine completions of 40-plus yards.