Best NFL Picks Today

Looking for a slam dunk? It's Kenneth Walker. He was denied three straight times on the 1-yard line a week ago but is in line to score at least once against one of the worst run defenses in football. With the Chiefs likely in cruise control come the second half, look for them to lean on Walker and Emmett Johnson. If you're looking for more value, the team is looking to give the latter "more snaps," which could bode well this week in the touchdown department.

With two Panthers receivers on the injury report, Young may look to the tight end. Waller had two scores last week and would have ranked second on the team in scoring if he'd been a Panther last season. 

The Giants have allowed three touchdowns and a monster 5.62 yards per rush to opposing running backs, and Pollard is set for a heavy workload with backfield mate Tyjae Spears questionable with an ankle injury. Pollard has handled 45.5% of the red-zone carries for the Titans, and he’s picked up a solid 3.05 yards after contact per attempt with a 79.5 PFF Elusive Rating through two games.

TreVeyon Henderson made his season debut for New England in Week 2, garnering 60% of snaps after his backfield mate Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled early on. Henderson finished with 16 carries for 76 yards and while the touches could be better balanced in Week 3, head coach Mike Vrabel didn’t dismiss Henderson’s involvement. With the Jaguars pass rush a problem, the New England run game needs to take heat off Maye and avoid long third downs. Jacksonville isn’t as strong versus the run, including the No. 28 rating in run stop win rate at ESPN. Measuring projections between the Pats two RBs, Henderson holds the most value. His forecasts lean toward 40+ rushing yards with some as high as 57 gains on the ground in Week 3.

Hampton has also rushed for 3.2 yards after contact per attempt with a third-ranked 103.8 PFF Elusive Rating while handling 66% of the team’s carries. So, with Buffalo surrendering four touchdowns to opposing running backs already, I like the go-to rusher to score for a third straight week. Hampton has handled 50% of the touches in the red zone for the Bolts and has converted both his rushes inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns, too.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has now scored 10+ touchdowns in three straight seasons, and he's off to an even faster start in 2026. Detroit's star receiver has scored twice in each of his first two games of the season, catching a total of 19 balls for 209 yards in that span. I'm taking St. Brown to score at up to 55% in Week 3.

The Colts own one of the worst red-zone defenses in the NFL, allowing teams to score at a near-70% clip when they reach their 20. This bodes well for Montgomery, who's being used the third-most in the red zone of any other running back in football, totaling six attempts for 19 yards and two touchdowns. Suffice to say when they get down by the goalline, Montgomery is their man.

Smith-Njigba is off to a flying start, with 277 receiving yards and four touchdowns through two games, and he cleared this O/U number in 13 of his 17 regular season outings last season.

Look for JSN to exploit mismatches against a Commanders secondary that’s leaked seven passing TDs already this season.

The Bengals haven’t looked to Higgins in the red zone yet in 2026, and I’m anticipating that to change following consecutive seasons with double-digit touchdowns. Higgins garnered 19.8% and 19% of the red-zone targets the past two years, and wide receiver Andrei Iosivas (thumb) is also out of the lineup. With Pittsburgh set to have its hands full with star wideout Ja'Marr Chase, Higgins stands to see softer coverage in Week 3, too.

McCaffrey has a team-high 12 targets this season and led San Francisco with 102 catches last season. It was his third season with 100+ receptions. CMC caught five passes in Week 1 and caught at least five passes in 14 of his 19 regular-season and playoff games last season.

Bucky's red-zone usage alone should make you want to invest in him to score against the Vikings. Minnesota is coughing up 100 yards per game on the ground, and when you add in Irving's volume both as a runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield, it's the perfect storm for him hitting pay dirt for the second time this season.

Play up to 35%. Lamar Jackson’s rushing upside stands out against a Dallas defense that has already allowed an NFL-high 126 rushing yards to quarterbacks. With 74 yards and a score on 11 carries himself, Jackson has multiple paths to capitalize on a matchup that has been especially vulnerable to mobile QBs.

New Orleans offensive-minded head coach Kellen Moore will find ways to use RB Travis Etienne Jr., who signed a four-year, $48 million deal this offseason. Etienne has 26 career rushing touchdowns and eight receiving touchdowns, including a career-best six receiving scores last season.

This might seem short, but I have this fair price much closer to even money. Matthew Stafford had no interest in passing to anyone but Davante Adams last Monday, even with the injuries to Puka Nacua and Jordan Whittington, who have been DNPs early this week. Adding to the pass-catcher injuries, Colby Parkinson is dealing with a knee injury. Parkinson played 70% of the snaps in Week 2 and was used more as a blocker, which could be a downgrade for the run game. Stafford was also happy to keep passing in the second half in a game that was already over when Jaxson Dart left. Adams was a beast against a bad secondary, putting up 195 yards and two TDs on 10 targets. He has a 28% target share heading into the Sunday nighter. Adams is also arguably the best red-zone pass-catching wide receiver in football. He tied for the league lead in RZ targets last year with 32 despite playing in only 14 games. He should be even money here, and even Patrick Surtain doesn't scare me.

I'll be backing the Philadelphia Eagles at -4.5 in this one, as I price them closer to a 6-point favorite against the Chicago Bears. I'm not going to lie, the side I choose always comes down to the numbers, but as a football fan, I'm thrilled that my edge in the projections is with the Eagles instead of Tyson Bagent/Case Keenum and the Bears. The line has moved six points from Bears -1.5 to Eagles -4.5 following Caleb Williams' injury and the downgrade to Bagent/Keenum. But I don't think the market has adjusted enough for this specific matchup against an Eagles defense coached by Vic Fangio and loaded with playmakers. This isn't a Williams-to-Bagent/Keenum downgrade against the Tennessee Titans.