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Cleveland enters the short week with major issues on the offensive line. Poor pass protection is amplified by injuries, with the Browns potentially down center Elgton Jenkins and guard Teven Jenkins. Watson faces a new-look Pittsburgh defense under Patrick Graham, but the Steelers’ pass pressure and ball-hawking tendencies remain. They sit 15th in pressure rate with eight sacks and have three interceptions already (FYI: top corner Joey Porter Jr. could be back for TNF). All that chaos in a collapsing pocket pushes Watson to hurry throws into the teeth of this Steelers zone coverage. Mix in the potential for some wet weather on Thursday and I see Watson throwing some meatball subs (as Tom Brady would say). Interception probabilities range from 40% to one model calling for an INT. My forecast boiled down to a 70% shot that Pittsburgh picked off Watson in Week 4, considering game script has the underdog Cleveland pressing the passing from behind.

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-most among all teams this week.. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Commanders defense has conceded a whopping 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-highest rate in football.. The Washington Commanders defense has yielded the most TDs through the air in the league to TEs: 0.85 per game since the start of last season.. The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

While the Patriots offense has yet to show a sign of life, the defense has been serviceable. New England ranks fifth in total defense and seventh overall in success percentage, which means they should be able to limit Allen enough to go Under the number. We've all seen Maye's struggles so far this season, and with the Bills front seven wreaking havoc through the early parts of the year, I'm leaning on Greg Rosseau and Co. to disrupt Maye enough to get the job done. These two teams have gone Under in two of the last three matchups in this divisional rivalry - points will be tough to come by.

The Jets defense struggled against a more dynamic offense from Detroit in Week 3, giving up 381 yards and 24 first downs while ranking 29th in EPA allowed per play. Former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and his play calling is a problem, even with Case Keenum under center. Chicago spread the ball around to eight different receivers while also mixing in unique run calls. With confidence in the QB3 rising, expect Johnson to take the training wheels off in Week 4.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 132.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.. After comprising 8.8% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Dak Prescott has played a bigger part in the ground game this season, now sitting at 14.5%.

The leading projections forecast the Eagles to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Philadelphia's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially decreased (and rushing stats inflated) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We figure to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.. DeVonta Smith has run a route on 97.9% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs.. DeVonta Smith comes in as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 53.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

This game's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Titans, who are giant -11.5-point underdogs.. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (36.6 per game) since the start of last season.. The Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Both teams have looked solid against the run, so the stage is set for Burrow and Trevor Lawrence to air it out on Sunday – and that game plan plays to both teams’ strengths.

The numbers back that up. The Bengals are averaging 26.7 PPG, while the Jaguars sit at 27.3 PPG, and the Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these squads.

Miami just lost its biggest weapon in Achane, leaving Malik Willis to face this insane Vikings defense with little help. Minnesota's blitz-hefty schemes are humming and face a Dolphins offensive line that gave up nine sacks in the opening two games. Willis ranks among the worst QBs when blitzed at PFF. Justin Jefferson's injury status doesn't worry me as much in Week 4. If he does play, this spread jumps to key number of -10 and beyond.

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Raiders to pass on 62.0% of their downs: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see 128.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Kirk Cousins's 67.4% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a substantial growth in his passing accuracy over last season's 60.8% rate.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Chargers are enormous underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chargers since the start of last season (a massive 59.5 per game on average).. Opposing teams have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.. With a fantastic record of 211.0 adjusted passing yards per game (80th percentile), Justin Herbert ranks among the top QBs in the league since the start of last season.

Even against a strong Denver defense, the 49ers have the explosiveness to create scoring opportunities. It helps that they own the best red-zone offense in football - scoring 90% of their trips inside the 20. Denver shouldn't need a huge offensive performance to get this game over the number, either. Nix showed flashes on Sunday Night Football in his 16-0 comeback victory, and is in a groove after two straight wins. 

Detroit is willing to win shootouts, as we’ve seen, and new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is finding his groove. Quarterback Jared Goff spread the ball around to eight different options on Sunday, and it woke up the rest of the weapons, beyond Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions owned the fourth-highest EPA per play in Week 3 and aren’t leaving points on the table, boasting the sixth-highest TD rate inside the red zone to start the year. Carolina is short in the secondary and dead last in red zone defense, giving up a TD on almost 86% of their opponents' trips inside the 20-yard line. Detroit does the "lion's share" of the scoring to get this Sunday night game and gets Over its team total.