Last week’s Over/Under picks went 2-1, putting Gimme The Over at 4-2 on the season.
This week, Josh Allen gets a Chargers defense that surrendered 26 points to both the Cardinals and Raiders. A tradition of high scoring in Detroit should also continue, and Baltimore gets to unload its Week 2 frustrations on a Cowboys defense that still can’t stop a nosebleed.
Here are my three NFL picks for Week 3.
NFL Week 3 Over/Under picks
| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Chargers vs  Bills |
Bills team total o28.5 |
 Jets vs  Lions |
o47.5 |
 Ravens vs  Cowboys |
Ravens team total o27.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 3 NFL Over/Under picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
Chargers vs Bills: Bills team total Over 28.5
The Buffalo Bills have scored at least 30 points in 14 of their last 18 regular-season home games.
Josh Allen & Co. have been a buzzsaw to start the season, dropping 36 on Houston and 41 on Detroit. The new-car smell of Joe Brady’s offense shouldn’t wear off after just two games, especially with Buffalo rested and playing only its second game in the new stadium.
Next up: the Los Angeles Chargers, the league’s top Survivor buster through two weeks. Los Angeles has given up 26 points in back-to-back games against the Cardinals and Raiders.
Neither offense has anything close to Buffalo’s firepower.
Jets vs Lions: Over 47.5
Asking the New York Jets to contribute to an Over sounds reckless, but the Detroit Lions have allowed 71 points and 915 yards through two games, so New York should get its chances.
That said, I expect the Lions to do most of the heavy lifting. They’ve led the league in home scoring in each of the past two seasons, have extra rest, and present a much tougher challenge for the Jets’ defense than its first two opponents did.
Including the playoffs, eight of Detroit’s last 10 home games have finished above 47.5, averaging 58.1 combined points.
Ravens vs Cowboys: Ravens team total Over 27.5
The Baltimore Ravens’ 17-point disgrace against New Orleans should lead to a much sharper effort if they’re the serious team many expect them to be.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys’ defense has shown next to no improvement from an awful 2025. Dallas ranks 28th in yards allowed per rush attempt and has let opponents convert a league-worst 68% of third-down attempts.
Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson should feast on those rushing lanes and keep drives alive. The Ravens still rank second in yards per play, and this matchup gives them every chance to look more like the team that hung 41 on Indianapolis in Week 1.
Week 3 Over/Under combo
Bills team total Over 28.5
Jets/Lions Over 47.5
Ravens team total Over 27.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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