Patrick Mahomes walks into Miami's home opener looking to feast on the fish, and I'm riding with him to do just that as part of my Chiefs vs. Dolphins prediction.
The Kansas City Chiefs head into Hard Rock Stadium (1 p.m. ET on CBS) as 10.5-point favorites looking for their third straight win, while the Miami Dolphins are simply trying to take another step forward in their rebuild.
Tap into all my NFL picks for Sunday, Sept. 27, and let's build that bankroll.
TOP Pick
Chiefs vs Dolphins prediction: Chiefs -10.5
This is undoubtedly my best trade of the week.
We're seeing the biggest spread on the slate, and for good reason; the Miami Dolphins enter this game with the largest point differential in the AFC (-36) and the fourth-worst red-zone defense in football.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs' offense is seemingly back, rocking the fifth-best passing attack in the NFL through two weeks. Add in a running game that is tearing defenses to shreds early on, and we have ourselves a blowout.
Expect Patrick Mahomes and Co. to play with their food and dominate.
COVERS INTEL: The Chiefs are the No. 1 team in total offense, averaging 457.0 yards per game. The Dolphins are in extreme trouble and will be lucky to keep this one within three touchdowns.
Chiefs vs Dolphins combo
With the Dolphins likely in catch-up mode from the jump, expect Malik Willis to go over his passing total for the third straight week.
On the other side, is Travis Kelce all the way back in this potent Chiefs offense? If last week was any indication, he is.
Miami has also struggled against tight ends — George Kittle posted 80 yards and a touchdown just last week — putting Kelce in position for another solid game.
Chiefs vs Dolphins combo
- Kansas City Chiefs -10.5
- Malik Willis 175+ passing yards
- Travis Kelce 50+ receiving yards
Chiefs vs Dolphins touchdown scorer: Kenneth Walker III
Looking for a slam dunk? It's Kenneth Walker III.
The reigning Super Bowl MVP was denied three straight times on the 1-yard line a week ago, but Walker is in line to score at least once against one of the worst run defenses in football.
With the Chiefs likely in cruise control come the second half, look for them to lean on Walker and Emmett Johnson. If you're looking for more value, the team is looking to give the latter "more snaps," which could bode well this week in the touchdown department.
- Top picks: 15-9, +5.64 units
- Combos: 0-0, +0.00 units
Chiefs vs Dolphins odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Chiefs -10.5 (51%) | Dolphins +10.5 (52%)
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (52%) | Under 45.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Chiefs 85% | Dolphins 15%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Chiefs vs Dolphins weather
We'll see sunny skies with a high of 84 degrees Fahrenheit, leaving little to no impact on game conditions.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Chiefs vs Dolphins trend to know
The Over is 3-0-1 in Miami's last four games after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous contest. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Dolphins.
How to watch Chiefs vs Dolphins
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Chiefs vs Dolphins latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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