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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 19, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.67 |
+102 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +166 
|
|
4.41 |
-115 
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -184 
|
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Camerons last 6 interleague starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Royals last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 8-1 in Royals last 9 games as an underdog.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-2 in Chandlers last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Chandlers last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Chandlers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in Chandlers last 4 starts as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.58 |
-140 
|
o9.0 -115
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
4.96 |
+125
|
u9.5 -125
|
+1.5 -132
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 9-1-1 in Cubs last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1 in Boyds last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Boyds last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 4-1 in Boyds last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Lodolos last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Lodolos last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lodolos last 4 starts as a home underdog.
Top Projection
JJ Bleday o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
o0.5+255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
-102
|
o7.5 -114 
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.68 |
-104
|
u8.0 -124
|
-1.5 +150
|
Toronto
- Over is 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 overall.
- Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
Texas
- Over is 8-0 in Rangers last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Quantrills last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.77 |
+120
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -182
|
|
5.05 |
-128
|
u9.0 -120 
|
-1.5 +160
|
Atlanta
- Over is 6-0-1 in Braves last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Braves last 7 on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Holmes' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Astros are 6-0 in Wesneskis last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+194)
o0.5+194
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.60 |
-103
|
o8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.09 |
-108
|
u9.0 -110
|
-1.5 +140
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Alvarezs last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Alvarezs last 7 starts as a road underdog.
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Cardinals last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in McGreevys last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in McGreevys last 4 starts vs. National League East.
Top Projection
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
o1.5+130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.17 |
-136
|
o10.5 -120
|
-1.5 +110
|
|
5.29 |
+130
|
u11.0 -117
|
+1.5 -120
|
Seattle
- Over is 6-0-1 in Millers last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Millers last 6 road starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Millers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
Colorado
- Under is 3-0-1 in Hughes' last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 7-1 in Rockies last 8 home games.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Rockies last 9 overall.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
o0.5+265
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.73 |
-162
|
o7.0 -134
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.32 |
+140
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -125
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 road games.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Schlittlers last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Schlittlers last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Yankees last 8 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Arizona
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 8-1 in Pfaadts last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.04 |
+135
|
o7.5 -107
|
+2.5 -275
|
|
4.19 |
-135
|
u8.0 -110
|
-2.5 +215
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Perezs last 6 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Perezs last 4 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
San Diego
- Over is 9-0 in Padres last 9 games following a win.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.81 |
+350
|
o7.5 +102
|
+2.5 -112
|
|
5.60 |
-400
|
u7.5 -113
|
-2.5 +100
|
San Francisco
- Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 vs. National League West.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Giants last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1-2 in Giants last 10 games following a loss.
LA Dodgers
- Under is 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts on grass.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
o1.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.15 |
-104
|
o6.5 -172
|
+1.5 -240
|
|
3.87 |
-109
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +190
|
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0 in Ryans last 6 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Ryans last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Twins last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
LA Angels
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Detmers' last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Detmers' last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in Angels last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.22 |
-160
|
o7.5 -129
|
-1.5 +105
|
|
3.43 |
+140
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -122
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 9-1 in Sanchezs last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Phillies are 6-1 in Sanchezs last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Sanchezs last 6 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Sanchezs last 6 starts as a favorite.
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Mets are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. National League East.
- Over is 7-1 in Mets last 8 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.25 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.99 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Royals last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 8-1 in Royals last 9 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-1 in Royals last 7 road games.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Pirates are 14-2 in their last 16 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.99 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
3.75 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Rays last 6 during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.14 |
+192
|
o6.5 -140
|
+1.5 -118
|
|
4.48 |
-215
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +105
|
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-2 in Perkins' last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in last 4 on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 8-1 in last 9 during game 3 of a series.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0-1 in Guardians last 5 overall.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Guardians are 6-0 in Williams' last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Guardians last 5 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.10 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.94 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cubs last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 9-1-1 in Cubs last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Cubs last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Lowders last 6 starts as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.27 |
+120
|
o7.5 -134
|
+1.5 -176
|
|
|
4.70 |
-130
|
u8.5 -122
|
-1.5 +152
|
Atlanta
- Over is 6-0-1 in Braves last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Braves last 7 on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 road games.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.60 |
+102
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -207
|
|
4.52 |
-118
|
u8.5 -138
|
-1.5 +170
|
Detroit
- Under is 4-0 in Meltons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Meltons last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 10-1 in Tigers last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 6-1 in Martins last 7 starts as a home underdog.
- White Sox are 10-1 in Martins last 11 starts as a home underdog.
- White Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 4 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.42 |
+128
|
o8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
|
4.84 |
-145
|
u9.5 -142
|
-1.5 +146
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Irvins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Mathews' last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Mathews' last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Mathews' last 4 starts overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.58 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.04 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 road games.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-2 in Rangers last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.57 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.11 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Mariners are 6-2 in their last 8 interleague games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 4-0-2 in Rockies last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Suganos last 5 interleague starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rockies last 4 during game 3 of a series.
KC
@
PIT
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 94.9-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.. Despite posting a .342 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bobby Witt Jr. has had some very poor luck given the .035 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .377.. Utilizing Statcast data, Bobby Witt Jr. grades out in the 97th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .301.
Total Bases
Carter Jensen o1.5 Total Bases (+138)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Carter Jensen ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Carter Jensen is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Bubba Chandler throws from, Carter Jensen will have the upper hand today.. In the past week, Carter Jensen's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12% up to 23.1%.. Over the last two weeks, Carter Jensen's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.9-mph over the course of the season to 97.6-mph recently.
CHC
@
CIN
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Total Home Runs (+222)
Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst
PCA has been Chicago's hottest hitter. He has three homers in the last four games and has hit Lodolo hard over his career. Lodolo is giving up home runs twice as often since the All-Star Break.
Total
o9.5 (+107)
Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst
TOR
@
TEX
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
George Springer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+450)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
George Springer has a knack for hitting homers when the Blue Jays need it most, and tonight qualifies. Still having a great second half of the season with a .823 OPS, Springer will need to lock into Quantrill's flat cutter - five of his 13 homers against have come off that pitch.
Outs Recorded
Jose Soriano o17.5 Outs Recorded (-135)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Jose Soriano will need to pitch deep into the ballgame after Dylan Cease threw just 2 2/3 innings last night. With a taxed bullpen behind him and the season likely one loss away from being over, he doesn't have much choice. The right-hander has gone over this number in three of his last four starts and has had some success against the Texas Rangers, limiting them to a .247 xBA and .313 xwOBA across 83 plate appearances. He'll have to be the man to keep the season afloat.
ATL
@
HOU
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+358)
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
Ronald Acuna Jr is heating up at just the right time for the Braves. He's slugging .672 in the month of September, with a 43.6% hard-hit rate and a 24% HR/FB mark.
He's also posted an opposite-field rate of 36.4% which ranks seventh among all qualifying hitters this month.
I'll back him to go deep for the fourth time in seven games.
Total
u8.5 (+103)
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
Astros SP Hayden Wesneski has yet to surrender a dinger in 22 IP at Daikin Park, with a home BABIP sitting 50 points below his road mark. He's also avoiding barrels, with a 25.8% soft contact rate in his last four starts.
Add in Atlanta's outstanding bullpen work over the past month (ranked ninth in HR/FB rate and hard-hit rate), and I'll back the Under out to 51%.
WAS
@
STL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the highest temperatures of all games today at 93°.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, CJ Abrams will have an advantage in today's matchup.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
CJ Abrams o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-125)
Projection 2.28
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the highest temperatures of all games today at 93°.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, CJ Abrams will have an advantage in today's matchup.
SEA
@
COL
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Mickey Moniak o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mickey Moniak in the 92nd percentile when estimating his home run talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best field in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Mickey Moniak will have the handedness advantage over Bryce Miller today.. Among all the teams playing today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best field in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Among all the teams playing today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.. Ezequiel Tovar will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.. In the past 7 days, Ezequiel Tovar's 77.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.5%.
NYY
@
AZ
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Ben Rice o0.5 Total Home Runs (+398)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
Ben Rice has posted a .511 xSLG with a 14.2% barrel rate this season while hitting nearly half of his batted balls at 95 mph or harder. That gives him one of the strongest combination of contact quality and left-handed power in this lineup. Left-handed hitters have launched 12 home runs against him in 67 innings this season, compared to only two homers allowed to righties. They've also produced a .451 SLG and .762 OPS against him.
Total
o7.5 (+101)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
The Yankees don't necessarily need Arizona to produce much of the scoring. Pfaadt has allowed nine earned runs and 17 hits across 13 innings in September, and the matchup against New York's lefties is exactly where his season-long profile has been most vulnerable.
MIA
@
SD
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+319)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 25%. Fernando Tatis Jr. is finally showing the power expected from him, going deep three times over the last week with a .414 ISO. His hard-hit and barrel numbers are climbing, and Eury Perez has struggled badly with home runs lately. Miami’s bullpen gives Tatis another favorable path to a long ball.
Total Bases
Griffin Conine u1.5 Total Bases (-235)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
20% of the time that Griffin Conine has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 6th-worst ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which generally leads to less offense.. In today's matchup, Griffin Conine is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.1% rate (92nd percentile).. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Griffin Conine in today's game.
SF
@
LAD
Sat, Sep 19 • 9:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kyle Tucker o0.5 Total Home Runs (+400)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Don’t look now but Kyle Tucker is crushing the baseball.
He is hitting .277 over his last 20 games with excellent metrics across the board, headlined by a .369 ISO and 13.6% barrel rate.
Tucker’s outputs have been excellent against pitchers of both handedness so it shouldn’t much matter who the San Francisco Giants have on the hill any given at bat.
Total
o7.5 (-101)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I trust the Los Angeles Dodgers to score in bulk, making the Over an appealing play up to 53%.
They’re not only getting on base consistently, but hitting for real power again. Just two teams have bested their 9.1% barrel rate during the month of September.
The conditions at Dodger Stadium are projected to provide more than a 20% boost to home runs, which should help convert hard contact into production.
MIN
@
LAA
Sat, Sep 19 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Bases
Josh Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+225)
Projection 1.28
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. The weather report forecasts the most favorable pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Considering Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Josh Lowe will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today.
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 8th-best batter in the majors.. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.. Mike Trout will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
KC
@
PIT
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:35 PM ET
Moneyline
PIT (-120)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Kansas City's lineup is completely lost right now, hitting an MLB-worst .197 with a punchless 73 wRC+ over their last twelve games. Pittsburgh's pitching staff gets an easy target here, giving the home club a straightforward path to cash.
ATL
@
HOU
Sun, Sep 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Moneyline
HOU (-134)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
NYY
@
AZ
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:10 PM ET
Moneyline
AZ (-103)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+124)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
