The New York Yankees face the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday night as roughly 60% favorites after cruising to a 9-2 victory in the series opener.
Cam Schlittler gets the ball against Brandon Pfaadt, and the gap between the two starters has my Yankees vs. Diamondbacks predictions backing New York.
Check out my free MLB picks for Sept. 19.
Who will win Yankees vs Diamondbacks today: Yankees moneyline
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I'm backing the New York Yankees up to 66%.
Likely Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler owns a 2.86 xERA with a 31.6% strikeout rate, holding hitters to a .207 xBA and .263 xwOBA. His strikeout rate is nearly 10 percentage points better than the MLB average, while his 6.1% walk rate keeps him from giving the Arizona Diamondbacks many free opportunities.
That starting-pitching advantage is significant against Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt has improved considerably from last season, but his 3.77 ERA comes with only a 16.4% strikeout rate, creating far more reliance on balls in play. That’s particularly concerning against the left-handed portion of this New York lineup.
Lefties have hit .261/.311/.451 against Pfaadt and have taken him deep 12 times in 67 innings. Right-handed hitters have managed just a .318 SLG with two homers against him.
That gives Yankees hitters multiple favorable looks and gives New York enough offense to support a massive starting-pitching advantage.
COVERS INTEL: The Yankees are 5-0 in Schlittler's last five starts while he has posted a 0.83 ERA, allowing just three earned runs across 32 2/3 innings.
Yankees vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Over 7.5
Schlittler's presence makes this a little uncomfortable, but 7.5 is low enough for me to still lean toward the Over, and I'd play to 51%.
The Yankees don't necessarily need Arizona to produce much of the scoring. Pfaadt has allowed nine earned runs and 17 hits across 13 innings in September, and the matchup against New York's lefties is exactly where his season-long profile has been most vulnerable.
The key is his inability to consistently miss bats. Pfaadt's 16.4% strikeout rate and 32.0% chase rate mean New York should have plenty of balls in play, and the Yankees have enough power to turn that contact into damage against a pitcher allowing a .451 SLG to lefties.
New York scored nine runs in Friday's opener and has reached at least five runs in seven of its last 10 games.
Schlittler can certainly suppress Arizona early, but this doesn't require a back-and-forth slugfest. A 5-3 or 6-2 type of outcome is enough to clear a number this low.
Yankees vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Ben Rice
Ben Rice has posted a .511 xSLG with a 14.2% barrel rate this season while hitting nearly half of his batted balls at 95 mph or harder. That gives him one of the strongest combination of contact quality and left-handed power in this lineup.
Pfaadt's splits provide the other half of the handicap.
Left-handed hitters have launched 12 home runs against him in 67 innings this season, compared to only two homers allowed to righties. They've also produced a .451 SLG and .762 OPS against him.
- ML/RL picks: 53-48, +11.00 units
- Over/Under picks: 57-42, +17.30 units
Yankees vs Diamondbacks weather
The Chase Field roof will be closed, so weather will not impact the game.
Yankees vs Diamondbacks odds
- Moneyline: Yankees 62% | Diamondbacks 38%
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Diamondbacks +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Yankees vs Diamondbacks trend
How to watch Yankees vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Dbacks.TV |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Brandon Pfaadt (7-3, 3.77 ERA) |
Yankees vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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