Minnesota Wild star Matt Boldy leads the league in both shot attempts and shots on target.
He's seen a further uptick since moving to a stacked top line, and my NHL predictions expect the volume to stay strong in a high-paced matchup against the Seattle Kraken.
Let's dive deeper into my full slate NHL picks for Saturday, Oct. 24.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Tom Wilson Over 0.5 points |
54% |
 Pavel Zacha Over 0.5 points |
60% |
 Matt Boldy Over 3.5 shots |
55% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Tom Wilson Over 0.5 points
Play to 58%.
Tom Wilson ranks second on the Washington Capitals in ixG over the past five games and has 5.47 xG during that span. Only two goals were scored, and Wilson didn’t factor into either.
He deserves better results than he’s getting, and this is a good spot for the tide to turn.
Wilson’s line will see plenty of the Tage Thompson-Jason Zucker duo, which allowed nearly 38 shots on goal per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play last season.
The Buffalo Sabres have struggled to get stops and sit 31st in team save percentage. If ever there’s a spot for the puck to start going in, this is it.
- Matchup: Buffalo Sabres vs. Washington Capitals
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Capital One Arena, Washington
- TV: SN+, ESPN+
Pick #2: Pavel Zacha Over 0.5 points
Play Pavel Zacha for a point to 62%.
He’s skating alongside David Pastrnak and JJ Peterka on a top line that has controlled 65.7% of expected goals since it was assembled.
Zacha also plays on the No. 1 power-play unit, which is especially important tonight.
The San Jose Sharks take penalties at an above-average rate and defend them poorly. Only two teams have allowed xG at a higher clip while undermanned.
Zacha has points in five of his last six, including three straight at home. Expect him to stay hot in this favorable matchup.
- Matchup: San Jose Sharks vs. Boston Bruins
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: TD Garden, Boston
- TV: SN+, ESPN+
Pick #3: Matt Boldy Over 3.5 shots
I love this spot for Matt Boldy, and would play him for 4+ shots to 59%.
The Seattle Kraken have won plenty of games but not because of their defense. They rank 30th in 5-on-5 shot suppression, 30th on the penalty kill, and play at the league’s fifth-highest pace.
This sets up well for Boldy, who has averaged 4.5 shots on 8.3 attempts over four games against bottom-10 shot-suppression teams.
Boldy has also generated shots at a higher clip with Kirill Kaprizov than without him. Minnesota stacking the top line is not a concern.
- Matchup: Minnesota Wild vs. Seattle Kraken
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
- TV: SN+, ESPN+
- Top picks: 18-18, -2.29 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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