Avalanche vs Blackhawks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Bedard Raises the Stakes

Connor Bedard hasn't missed a beat since returning to the Blackhawks lineup and will be a key contributor if Chicago has any hope of sending the visiting Avalanche out the door with a loss.

Feb 29, 2024 • 15:11 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The Chicago Blackhawks are mired in a 1-12 run and enter tonight vs. the Colorado Avalanche, who are massive -300 road favorites despite closing at -225 in Chicago before Christmas in a 3-2 Hawks win.

It’s tough to pitch the Blackhawks, but +235 home dogs in the NHL odds aren’t a common sight and with the Avs being a weaker road team and the Hawks being more competitive at home, there is something to betting the number tonight in Chicago. 

I break down the odds and offer my best free NHL picks for Avalanche vs. Blackhawks for Thursday, February 29.   

Avalanche vs Blackhawks odds

Avalanche vs Blackhawks predictions

The Colorado Avalanche were without Cale Makar in that December loss, but they also had Val Nichushkin, which adds a little to the lost value from the defenseman's absence. 

The Chicago Blackhawks won that game and considering they're paying more to win tonight as a +235 home dog, Thursday’s longest odds might be worth a sniff — or the +1.5 for the faint of heart. 

Colorado’s numbers are overvalued thanks to the league’s best home record at 23-6 and a plus-45 goal differential. The Hawks are undervalued at home thanks to the league’s worst road record at 4-25 straight up.

However, getting the Avs on the road and the Hawks at home is where the value is hiding. 

On the season, the Avs are 13-18 SU on the road with a minus-14 goal differential. They are a different team on the road and one that is profitable to fade. 

Chicago is 11-19 SU at home, which isn’t amazing, but its goal differential per game goes from minus-0.63 per game at home to minus-2.27 on the road. It’s a big difference. 

Chicago will also have the benefit of seeing backup goalie Justus Annunen, who has a career .881 SV% over eight games. On the other hand, Petr Mrazek has a very surprising .924 SV% at home to go along with a 10-12 SU record.

If the books are valuing the Hawks and Avs on their overall output this year, it’s safe to say Colorado is overvalued on the road and Chicago is undervalued at home.

This play might not be for everyone, and the Blackhawks +1.5 at -105 is available, but this is a tough number to pass on with the Hawks, even in what is perceived to be its toughest home matchup of the season. I mean, Carolina is just -270 in Columbus tonight with the Jackets on the second game of a back-to-back. 

My best bet: Blackhawks moneyline (+235 at bet365)

Avalanche vs Blackhawks same-game parlay

Blackhawks moneyline

Connor Bedard Over 0.5 points

Connor Bedard Over 2.5 shots on goal

There is one man to back on the Chicago offense and it's Connor Bedard. He has a great matchup vs. Annunen, who is a bottom-tier goalie, and having last change is massive for a shallow Chicago attack so Bedard can get the better matchups. 

Since his return to the lineup, Bedard has seven points and 17 shots over six games, including 4-2 to the Over on his shots prop. If Chicago pulls off the upset (again), it will be the rookie leading the offense.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Avalanche vs Blackhawks moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Colorado opened as a -300 favorite on the moneyline but the Hawks are starting to take some money as a large home dog.

Despite a road record of 13-18 SU, Colorado is being priced closer to the elite home team it has been this year. Beating up on teams in altitude has its benefits. 

Annunen has been announced as the starter for the Avs, which is another reason for the move towards Chicago. The backup has one win over four games with 14 goals allowed. He is arguably the worst backup in hockey. 

Since Bedard has been back, Chicago is 1-5 SU but has taken points in back-to-back games vs. good competition in Detroit and Winnipeg. The more I talk about it, the more I like the Hawks. 

The total opened at 6 and did hit 6.5 today at some places before moving back to 6. I will not be betting the Over, even at the 6. Chicago is 13 games profitable to the Under and the difference between the Colorado offense at home vs. the road is over 1.2 goals per game. 

The Over money is likely coming in because of the goalie matchup, but Chicago has scored more than three goals just once over its last 19 games and Mrazek has been great at home. 

The Colorado power play is at 12.5% this month, one of the worst marks in hockey, while Chicago has the No. 2 penalty kill over that stretch.

I’m on the Hawks and off the total but would lean on the Under 6.5 at -120 or better which could be available later when bettors see the goalie matchup. 

Avalanche vs Blackhawks betting trend to know

The Blackhawks have hit the 1P Moneyline in 27 of their last 85 games (+12.30 Units / 14% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Blackhawks.

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Avalanche vs Blackhawks game info

Location: United Center, Chicago, IL
Date: Thursday, February 29, 2024
Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. ET

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