Two flailing franchises face off in Sin City when the Las Vegas Raiders host the Pittsburgh Steelers.
While both defenses our strong, our Steelers vs. Raiders predictions are honing in on how poorly these offenses are playing.
I explain why the Under on such a low total is the right play in my NFL picks for Sunday, October 13.
My best bet
Under 36.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a familiar spot, riding another strong defense to some early success despite myriad struggles on offense. They sit 11th in defensive DVOA, flaunting arguably the best line in football to shut down the run and get to the quarterback to aid a perfectly average secondary.
The Las Vegas Raiders' offensive line ranks 28th through the first five games, according to Pro Football Focus, allowing a whopping 13 sacks to rank second-worst in the league, and that’s made life a nightmare for Gardner Minshew. He’s ranked 31st in EPA per play among the 38 quarterbacks to take at last 20 snaps, while his backup Aidan O’Connell has struggled in his own right at 27th.
Shockingly, this team has actually been marginally better through the air, ranking dead last in rushing DVOA, and O’Connell would seem to offer a glimmer of hope after being sacked just twice and throwing just one interception with one touchdown on 61.9% passing in two appearances.
O’Connell’s been much better than Minshew at avoiding sacks and stands a better chance at limiting turnovers, meaning this team should avoid donating field position to Pittsburgh and allow its miserable offense — now down Adams and perhaps Jakobi Meyers, who is questionable — to run plenty of plays.
I think that should help us get home on the Under in this game, despite the Raiders showing little on defense. They got Maxx Crosby back in the lineup last week, which should help a talented line lift this defense in the coming weeks and combat a Steelers team that ranks fourth in rush play rate.
I foresee plenty of three-and-outs in this one, handing things off to two talented punters, and with few turnovers expected and the promise of fewer sacks allowed by Las Vegas, time will tick off the clock quickly in a slog of a game
Steelers vs Raiders same-game parlay
Under 36.5
Aidan O'Connell Under 0.5 interceptions
Najee Harris Over 11.5 receiving yards
The price on O’Connell’s interception sure makes sense, considering this Steelers defense ranks fourth in interception rate, but their two picks of Dak Prescott last week came after a two-game drought in that category. On top of that, it was Prescott’s incompetence with time in the pocket that ultimately gifted this defense two takeaways.
O’Connell was intercepted just seven times in 11 games last season, and he ranked as the second-best of the 49 quarterbacks to see action with a 2.6% turnover-worth play rate over at PFF.
He may not offer much excitement, but O’Connell can manage the game for Las Vegas, taking few risks while keeping the ball in this team’s hands. There’s plenty of value in backing him to hang onto the ball.
Conversely, there’s a lot to like with Najee Harris.
The Steelers’ lead back has begun to feature in the passing game over the last three weeks, receiving 13 targets and responding with 10 catches for 105 yards. He’s cashed the Over on this total in each game, despite being targeted just twice last week against Dallas, and I’d much rather attack his yardage prop here than the Over on 3.5 receptions as a result.
Las Vegas ranks eighth-worst in the league with 42.9 receiving yards allowed per game to running backs and sixth-worst with 6.7 targets on average, putting Harris in a smash spot.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Steelers vs Raiders odds
Steelers vs Raiders live odds
Steelers vs Raiders opening odds
- Spread: Pittsburgh -3.5 (-110) | Las Vegas +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh -175 | Las Vegas +145
- Over/Under: Over 37.5 (-105) | Under 37.5 (115)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Steelers vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Steelers remain right around the opening line here at -165 as of this writing, but initially, some money pushed them as short as -150 before briefly diving back to -175.
- A sturdy 85% of the moneyline bets and 85% of the cash at DraftKings is on the Steelers.
- The total quickly dipped down a full point from the opening line of 37.5, recovering for a few hours at 37 points before heading back to 36.5.
- The Over has accounted for 56% of the tickets, but just 32% of the handle.
Steelers vs Raiders betting trend to know
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Raiders.
Steelers vs Raiders game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-13, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Steelers vs Raiders latest injuries
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