In the wake of ESPN acquiring the NFL Network, it was announced that beloved gameday staple “RedZone” would feature commercials for the first time in its 16-year existence.
And people lost their shit.
The outrage was instant as legions of fuming football fans ran a 40-yard dash to their phones and blasted the decision on social media, like it was the collapse of modern civilization.
In the end, the death of “seven hours of commercial-free football” wasn’t that painful. There were only four ads with a combined run time of one minute, shown in split-screen alongside the “RedZone” broadcast.
Not that bad, right?
Overreactions aren’t just reserved for “RedZone” selling its soul. Week 2 of the schedule is notorious for knee-jerk assumptions based on opening results. And nowhere is that more evident than the NFL odds board.
It’s very important not to overreact to Week 1, much like how I’m not overreacting to a 0-3 ATS start for my “NFL Underdogs” column.
Hell, those annual overreactions are a big reason why Week 2 underdogs cover at a 61% rate since 2020. Now we just have to sniff out those puffed-up point spreads.
Here are my best NFL picks for teams getting the points in Week 2.
Last week: 0-3 ATS
NFL Week 2 predictions and picks
Buccaneers +3
Falcons +5
Eagles +1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Houston Texans
Best bet: Tampa Bay +3
(-118 at DraftKings)
An awful offensive line has plagued the Houston Texans for the past few seasons, and one game into 2025, it appears that this terrible trend will continue.
After revamping the protection this offseason, Houston still allowed quarterback C.J. Stroud to suffer three sacks, get hit seven times, and feel the heat on 41% of his dropbacks in a loss to the L.A. Rams in Week 1.
Adding injury to insult (and more injury, with guard Ed Ingram still out) was the loss of starting center Jake Andrews to a high ankle sprain. I'm trying to follow my own advice and not "overreact," but center is one of the most undervalued positions in football.
That porous pass protection faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense just dying to hit a quarterback. Under Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers have a very aggressive pass rush that blitzes at a high rate.
That pass rush couldn’t get to Atlanta QB Michael Penix Jr. much in Week 1 (only one sack), but the chaos up front almost led to three interceptions (which all were dropped) from the Bucs secondary.
If the Houston offensive line can’t keep Stroud clean, the Texans will turn to the running game for a breather. Top rusher Joe Mixon is still sidelined with injury, leaving the load on the veteran legs of Nick Chubb.
He’ll run into a Tampa defense that just slammed the door on Bijon Robinson and Tyler Allgier for only 48 total yards. Bowles consistently puts one of the top run-stopping units on the field each and every season.
This feels like a lower-scoring slog with the Bucs' blitzers making game-changing plays for the underdog.
Atlanta Falcons (+5) at Minnesota Vikings
Best bet: Atlanta +5
(-115 at bet365)
Old-fashioned recency bias is bubbling up in the spread for Sunday night. After the Minnesota Vikings’ fourth-quarter comeback on Monday Night Football, the line opened at Minnesota -4.5 and rose to as high as -5.5.
J.J. McCarthy’s exorcism in the final 15 minutes almost makes you forget just how shit this offense was in the opening three frames (dead last in EPA per play in first three quarters). If it wasn’t for a couple of pass interference calls and a questionable roughing the passer penalty on the Bears, this spread would be much closer to a field goal.
The Atlanta Falcons' passing playbook did well in Week 1 against a defense that thinks very similarly to Minnesota. The Falcons finished with 289 yards passing and rated among the Top 10 in several fancy pass metrics, holding off an aggressive Tampa Bay pass rush for one sack and only four QB hits on Michael Penix Jr.
And for all the ballyhoo around McCarthy’s fourth-quarter antics, Penix was just as locked in for the Falcons in the final 15 minutes.
He nearly willed his team to victory with two pressure-filled drives in the fourth — one finishing with a go-ahead TD stretch at the goal line and the other setting up a potential game-tying field goal that was whiffed by kicker Younghoe Koo.
Penix is hoping to have both Drake London and Darnell Mooney for this Week 2 trip to Minnesota. London is day-to-day with a shoulder sprain, and Mooney is trending toward playing after sitting out Week 1.
I'll take the points with this bloated spread and the better QB on Sunday night.
Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Best bet: Philadelphia +1.5
(-110 at FanDuel)
Bookmakers are split on this Super Bowl LIX rematch, with most dealing the Philadelphia Eagles as slight road chalk in Arrowhead Stadium and others offering a pick’em. A select few sportsbooks are showing Philadelphia +1.5.
You'll see some squirrelly pricing for this game, especially around the moneylines. But like using a bidet for the first time, don’t question it. Just go with it.
The Eagles didn’t live up to the hype in Week 1, winning 24-20 and failing to cover as 8-point home faves to the Cowboys last Thursday. However, that was a strange game, and I’m not discounting the reigning champs too much.
A lengthy weather delay ended up being very disruptive (41 points in the first half followed by just three points in the second half), and top pass rusher Jalen Carter was tossed before kickoff after spitting on Dak Prescott. As of Tuesday, he’s avoided any suspension for Week 2.
The Kansas City Chiefs had an “off” opener as well. The Chiefs travelled to Brazil and lost 27-21 to the L.A. Chargers as 3-point neutral-site favorites.
An already thin receiving corps (Rashee Rice suspended) looks like Christian Bale in “The Machinist” after speedster Xavier Worthy separated his shoulder in a freak collision with Travis Kelce last Friday.
Patrick Mahomes relied on some big passing plays to keep Kansas City in the game last week (124 of 258 yards came on three plays). This is something Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio noted ahead of this rematch. He’s prepared to protect against the home run ball, just like last year when the Eagles allowed a league low 35 passing plays of 20 yards or more in 2024.
Not allowing those big plays to develop is step No. 1 for the Eagles' defense. Philadelphia is facing a retooled KC pass protection that ranked 25th in pass block win rate in the opening week. The Eagles’ four-man rush and Fangio’s tricky schemes terrorized Mahomes in the Super Bowl, scoring six sacks and 11 QB hits.
While the Philly defense may not be that dominant this Sunday, I’m not buying into “revenge” angles and see a Chiefs team just trying to survive this nasty opening stretch.
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