It was a Week 1 to remember for the Minnesota Vikings.
After looking rudderless in the first three quarters versus the Chicago Bears, Minnesota’s offense sprang to life with first-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy leading the charge. The Vikings would overcome an 11-point deficit to win 27-24 on Monday night.
A big part of that rally was star receiver Justin Jefferson, who snatched three of his four catches in the fourth quarter, along with a touchdown.
With McCarthy working out those Week 1 jitters, look for a much busier outing from Jefferson against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football.
Here are my best Falcons vs. Vikings predictions and NFL picks for September 14.
Falcons vs Vikings prediction
Falcons vs Vikings Best bet: Justin Jefferson Over 5.5 receptions (-120)
Justin Jefferson entered Monday’s Week 1 matchup with a receptions total of 6.5, but thanks to a slow first half, the Minnesota Vikings superstar finished with just four catches.
J.J. McCarthy threw the ball just 20 times, with seven of those passes targeted at J.J., who struggled with timing and footing on the torn-up turf at Soldier Field. Poor pass protection for McCarthy also saw the pocket collapse before he could find No. 18.
Jefferson is projected for a much better night in Week 2. He gets to come home to the fast indoor track of U.S. Bank Stadium. For his career, Jefferson averages 7.0 receptions in domed stadiums, compared to just 5.7 outdoors.
Atlanta Falcons coach Raheem Morris almost exclusively runs zone coverage, and J.J. is one of the top WRs in the NFL at finding space and exploiting zones.
In fact, Jefferson has smashed Atlanta for big days in past matchups, totaling 16 receptions for almost 300 yards and four touchdowns. That includes seven grabs on seven targets last December.
Week 2 projections love Jefferson, as models range from 6.1 to 6.7 receptions on Sunday night. That’s more than enough to get him Over his total of 5.5 grabs.
Some books are offering the Over 5.5 as pricey as -150, but you can find the same ask for -120 at FanDuel.
Falcons vs Vikings SNF same-game parlay
Jefferson has reeled in 16 receptions in two meetings with Atlanta and is projected for as many as seven Sunday night. He’s scored four touchdowns against the Falcons in the last two meetings.
Most models call for close to 90 yards for the Vikings' stud receiver, who plays his best ball at home.
A short week puts the Vikings against the wall against a hungry Falcons team trying to avoid a 0-2 start.
Falcons vs Vikings 4-leg SGP
- Falcons +3.5
- Justin Jefferson Over 5.5 receptions
- Justin Jefferson Over 72.5 receiving yards
- Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Justin Credible
- Buying the dip on Jefferson’s reception total.
- Atlanta allowed three passing TDs in Week 1.
- Jefferson has almost 300 total yards in two games vs. ATL.
- Allgeier got stuffed by the Bucs run stop, but he is projected to bounce back.
- Injuries are adding up for the Vikings, and Atlanta has a gamer in Penix Jr.
Falcons vs Vikings 5-leg SGP
- Falcons +3.5
- Justin Jefferson Over 5.5 receptions
- Justin Jefferson Over 72.5 receiving yards
- Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown
- Tyler Allgeier Over 26.5 rushing yards
Falcons vs Vikings odds
- Spread: Atlanta +4.5 (-110) | Minnesota -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Atlanta +190 | Minnesota -220
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Falcons vs Vikings betting trend to know
Minnesota has played Under the total in 10 of its last 16 home games (62.5%). Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Vikings.
How to watch Falcons vs Vikings
| Location | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Sunday, September 14, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Falcons vs Vikings latest injuries
Falcons vs Vikings weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
