It’s only Week 2, but the bad-vibes Miami Dolphins are already teetering.
After last weekend’s no-show in Indianapolis, followed by a players-only meeting, Mike McDaniel’s seat just got even hotter, and the New England Patriots have a chance to add to the misery for their AFC East rivals on Sunday.
My Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions and NFL picks for this September 14 matchup believe Stefon Diggs will add to the misery in Miami.
Patriots vs Dolphins prediction
Patriots vs Dolphins Best bet: Stefon Diggs Over 41.5 receiving yards (-114)
Stefon Diggs’ Week 1 stat line may not have jumped off the screen, but there was a lot to like about his New England Patriots debut.
Returning from knee surgery, Diggs caught six of his seven targets for 57 yards, and I expect him to be even more productive this weekend against the reeling Miami Dolphins.
While New England would surely prefer to avoid a repeat of Drake Maye’s 46 pass attempts in that loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, there’s every reason to attack this Dolphins defense through the air.
Miami was picked apart in the season opener as Daniel Jones completed 22 of his 29 passes for 272 yards and, as long as the Patriots’ O-line can hold up, there should be ample opportunities for Maye to flash his growing connection with Diggs.
Even though Diggs isn’t the same downfield threat at this stage in his career, this receiving yards O/U line feels way too low. He’s still a target machine – 7+ in seven of his last nine games – and the need for Maye to get the ball out quickly to negate the Miami pass rush plays to Diggs’ strengths.
With the Dolphins coming off a Week 1 stinker full of defensive breakdowns and half-hearted tackling, New England’s veteran receiver is well-placed for another productive day.
Patriots vs Dolphins same-game parlay
Like Diggs, TreVeyon Henderson is an ideal outlet for Maye in this matchup, particularly on plays that go off-script.
I like this Over for Henderson, who caught six passes for 24 yards against the Raiders and has the explosive ability to nail this prop on less volume than that.
While I’m locked in on two receiving Overs, don’t count on slick drives at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Under is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and Miami was shut out until the 6:21 mark in the fourth quarter against the Colts. Plus, New England’s defense would get a major boost if Christian Gonzalez and Harold Landry III are cleared to return.
Patriots vs Dolphins SGP
- Stefon Diggs Over 41.5 receiving yards
- TreVeyon Henderson Over 18.5 receiving yards
- Under 43.5
Our big-ticket SGP: Nothing easy for Tua
Week 1 was a horror show for Tua Tagovailoa, so I’ll supercharge the odds with the Under on his passing yards total and a wager on De’Von Achane to have a busy day catching passes out of the backfield, with Miami looking out-of-sync on shots further down the field.
I’m not sold on the Pats’ defense until we see that unit at full strength, but the Dolphins have injury woes of their own. They’ll be asking a lot of Tyreek Hill and Achane to prop up a banged-up offense here, and even Hill feels like a wild card after being in the off-field spotlight again this week.
Patriots vs Dolphins SGP
- Stefon Diggs Over 41.5 receiving yards
- TreVeyon Henderson Over 18.5 receiving yards
- Under 43.5
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 232.5 passing yards
- De’Von Achane Over 29.5 receiving yards
Patriots vs Dolphins odds
- Spread: Patriots +1.5 | Dolphins -1.5
- Moneyline: Patriots +110 | Dolphins -130
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Patriots vs Dolphins trend to know
The Dolphins have only hit the 1H team total Over in seven of their last 18 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Dolphins.
How to watch Patriots vs Dolphins
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date | Sunday, September 14, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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