Buy low and sell high. It works in stocks. It works in sports betting.
If you’re interested in buying low in Week 2, you’ll find New York Giants quarterback Russell Wilson at earthworm-levels of low heading into Sunday’s showdown with the Dallas Cowboys.
Wilson’s debut for the G-Men was dismal, with the veteran QB rating among the worst passing performances from the opening week of football. It was so bad, in fact, that there were rumblings he’d be replaced by a rookie.
However, Wilson is back under center for this NFC East encounter, and my Giants vs. Cowboys predictions have faith that Russ will find his form against Dallas.
Here are my best NFL picks for September 14.
Giants vs Cowboys prediction
Giants vs Cowboys Best bet: Russell Wilson Over 217.5 passing yards (-114)
Overreactions are the flavor of the week, with the media making a mountain out of a molehill based on those Week 1 results.
Yes, Russell Wilson was pretty bad in his debut for the Big Blue, but it wasn’t all on him.
The New York Giants' offensive line couldn’t protect their new passer, finishing 23rd in pass block win rate while giving up six QB hits and two sacks. That didn’t allow for deeper plays to develop and left Wilson with an average depth of target of just 5.5 yards.
Washington’s pass pressure forced Wilson into shorter passes, especially in the first half. The Commanders' secondary also did a good job, sitting second in success rate per dropback allowed, using primarily man-to-man coverage versus Wilson and the Giants.
Although the Dallas Cowboys allowed only 152 passing yards to Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts in the season opener last Thursday, that says more about the Eagles’ rushing attack than anything, as well as some strange circumstances in Week 1.
Hurts still finished 19-for-23 passing, and Dallas finished Week 1 ranked 30th in opponent success rate per dropback. Thursday’s game was also impacted by an extended weather delay, which cooled the offenses in the second half (41 points in the first half, three in the second).
Under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, the Cowboys ran zone coverage almost exclusively against Philadelphia. For his career, Wilson has performed much better against zone than the man-heavy sets he faced from Washington in Week 1.
On top of that, Dallas’ secondary is running thin heading into Week 2. Top corner Trevon Diggs is still not 100% and standout DB DaRon Bland suffered a foot injury that could cost him multiple games. Starting safety Malik Hooker was also limited in practice with a foot injury this week.
The Cowboys don’t have the same fierce pass rush they once did, thanks in part to trading away star edge Micah Parsons before the season. Dallas was 18th in pass rush win rate in the opening slate, and while it did stir up a solid pressure rate per dropback, it scored only one sack on Hurts in Week 1.
With Wilson getting another full-speed run in this new offense and playing against a depleted Dallas defense, I’m optimistic for the Over 217.5 passing yards. Mix in a game script with New York as a big underdog, as well as an indoor venue, and Wilson will be passing plenty as the G-Men battle from behind.
Projections for Wilson range from a spot-on 217.4 yards to as high as 240 yards, with the majority of models calling for more than 220 passing yards in Week 2.
Giants vs Cowboys same-game parlay
Wilson faces a zone-heavy scheme with a secondary running thin on starters.
Nabers drew 12 targets but only caught five balls in Week 1. He’ll get lots of looks again on Sunday.
CeeDee Lamb is a threat to score anywhere on the field, and the Cowboys star scored a TD in his last matchup against New York.
I predict plenty of points – or at least 45 – with Dallas’ passing punch and improvement from the Giants offense.
Giants vs Cowboys 4-leg SGP
- Russell Wilson Over 217.5 passing yards
- Malik Nabers Over 6.5 receptions
- CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown
- Over 44.5
Our big-ticket SGP: Unlimited Scoring
- It’s a “buy low” spot on DangerRuss after a poor Week 1 showing.
- Nabers has the seventh-highest target rate of all WRs in Week 1.
- Lamb is the star of this Dallas passing attack.
- The Cowboys’ offense was cooled off by a Week 1 weather delay. There are more points on the table.
- Nabers is Wilson’s top target and can pick apart this banged-up Dallas defense.
Giants vs Cowboys 5-leg SGP
- Russell Wilson Over 217.5 passing yards
- Malik Nabers Over 6.5 receptions
- CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown
- Over 44.5
- Malik Nabers anytime touchdown
Giants vs Cowboys odds
- Spread: Giants +3.5 (-120) | Cowboys -3.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Giants +135 | Cowboys -160
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-110)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Giants vs Cowboys trend to know
Under former head coach Mike McCarthy, Dallas was 27-15 Over/Under inside AT&T Stadium (64% Overs) from 2020 to 2024. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Cowboys.
How to watch Giants vs Cowboys
| Location | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Sunday, September 14, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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