Jeremiah Smith has officially blown up the 2027 NFL Draft market.
The Ohio State receiver is now the favorite to go No. 1 overall at 27%, jumping ahead of Arch Manning after torching Illinois for 217 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Manning has fallen to 17%, while CJ Carr is right behind him at 16% and Darian Mensah continues his rapid climb at 13%.
That completely changes the biggest question surrounding the latest NFL Draft odds: Can Smith actually become the first wide receiver selected No. 1 overall since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996, or will one of the quarterbacks eventually reclaim the top spot?
2027 NFL Draft odds to be No. 1 pick
| Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jeremiah Smith (WR) |
27% |
 Arch Manning (QB) |
17% |
 CJ Carr (QB) |
16% |
 Darian Mensah (QB) |
13% |
 Drew Mestemaker (QB) |
8% |
 Trinidad Chambliss (QB) |
8% |
 LaNorris Sellers (QB) |
4% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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2027 NFL Draft favorites to go No. 1
Jeremiah Smith (WR, Ohio State)
Jeremiah Smith isn't chasing the quarterbacks anymore. He's the favorite.
Smith exploded for 12 catches, 217 yards, and four touchdowns against Illinois, pushing his probability to go No. 1 overall from 13% to 27%. That wasn't empty production against an overmatched September opponent, either. It was the type of dominant performance that forces NFL teams to ask whether positional value should really outweigh elite talent.
A wide receiver hasn't gone No. 1 overall since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996, so the historical hurdle is still very real. But Smith has now created separation in a market filled with quarterbacks. The question has flipped: instead of wondering whether Smith can catch them, Manning, Carr, and company now have to catch him.
Arch Manning (QB, Texas)
Arch Manning remains firmly in the race, but the market is finally making him earn the No. 1 label rather than simply handing it to him.
Texas survived Tennessee 20-17, but Manning finished with 201 passing yards, no touchdowns, and an interception while taking six sacks. That's hardly the type of performance that was going to protect a 25% probability when Smith was simultaneously setting fire to Illinois.
Manning has now fallen to 17%, but quarterback value keeps him extremely relevant. He doesn't need to match Smith statistically every Saturday. He does need to start stacking performances that make NFL evaluators see a clear franchise quarterback rather than a player still trading heavily on projection and pedigree.
CJ Carr (QB, Notre Dame)
CJ Carr is suddenly one percentage point away from being the highest-priced quarterback in the market.
Carr accounted for four touchdowns in Notre Dame's 49-10 demolition of Purdue, throwing for 237 yards and three scores while adding another touchdown on the ground. He did throw his first interception of the season, but it's hard to complain about the overall body of work with Notre Dame sitting at 4-0.
At 16%, Carr's path is obvious. Keep winning, keep protecting the football, and prove he can make the same throws when the level of competition rises. Manning's grip on QB1 has loosened considerably, and Carr is now close enough to take advantage.
Darian Mensah (QB, Miami)
Darian Mensah isn't merely hanging around this race anymore. He's becoming increasingly difficult to explain away.
Mensah completed 23 of 27 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns in Miami's 52-3 destruction of Central Michigan while adding another score on the ground. Through four games, he has now thrown 14 touchdown passes compared to just 12 incompletions.
That's absurd efficiency, but now comes the test this market has been waiting for. Miami heads to Clemson next, giving Mensah a chance to produce against a conference opponent in a hostile environment. If the accuracy and decision-making survive that jump in competition, his 13% probability could move quickly.
Dante Moore (QB, Oregon)
Dante Moore's evaluation now comes with a much bigger variable than anything he put on film Saturday.
Moore left Oregon's 41-27 win over USC following a late hit in the second quarter and was taken from the Coliseum in an ambulance. Oregon rallied behind backup Dylan Raiola, but the immediate concern for Moore is obviously his health rather than his draft probability.
From a market perspective, that makes his status critical. Moore entered the weekend as one of the quarterbacks with a legitimate path toward challenging Manning, but any extended absence would cost him valuable opportunities to build his case during conference play.
Drew Mestemaker (QB, Oklahoma State)
Drew Mestemaker might be the most interesting riser in the entire market.
His probability has doubled from 4% to 8% after throwing for a season-high 389 yards and three touchdowns in Oklahoma State's 41-24 road win over West Virginia. He completed 20 of 27 passes, wasn't sacked, and helped the Cowboys produce 609 yards of offense in their Big 12 opener.
Now there is something tangible behind the price movement. Mestemaker is producing explosive plays, winning conference games, and putting together the type of statistical profile that can force his way into a quarterback conversation that looked much more established only a couple of weeks ago.
Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss)
Trinidad Chambliss finally hit some resistance, and the market reacted.
After soaring into the No. 1 pick conversation following his breakout against LSU, Chambliss has slipped from 11% to 8% after Ole Miss was hammered 52-28 at Florida. His individual performance wasn't disastrous — he completed 25 passes for 298 yards and a touchdown — but he also threw an interception as the Rebels suffered their first loss.
That shouldn't erase what Chambliss has done, but it does slow the momentum that fueled his initial rise. Ole Miss now has time to regroup before returning to SEC play, and his next stretch will tell us whether the LSU performance was the beginning of a sustained breakout or the high point of an early-season surge.
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NFL Draft betting trends
• Quarterback is the most important position on the football field, and following Las Vegas taking Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 in 2026, 22 of the last 29 first-overall picks have been QBs.
• All but two of the last 18 NFL Drafts have seen an offensive lineman get picked in the Top 10, with 2025 being no different, as Will Campbell went fifth, Armand Membou went seventh, and Kelvin Banks Jr. was picked ninth.
List of first overall NFL Draft picks
| Year | Player | Position |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 |  Fernando Mendoza |
QB |
| 2025 |  Cam Ward |
QB |
| 2024 |  Caleb Williams |
QB |
| 2023 |  Bryce Young |
QB |
| 2022 |  Travon Walker |
DE |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence |
QB |
| 2020 |  Joe Burrow |
QB |
| 2019 |  Kyler Murray |
QB |
| 2018 |  Baker Mayfield |
QB |
| 2017 | Myles Garrett |
DE |
| 2016 |  Jared Goff |
QB |
How to bet on the 2027 NFL Draft
Sportsbooks will post odds for the player to go first overall in the draft as soon as the previous year's draft is over. Once the college football season begins in September, these odds could change weekly depending on how players are performing as well as the evaluations of trusted draftniks such as Mel Kiper Jr.
In addition, this NFL futures bet may also take into account the team needs of the worst team(s) in the NFL.
After the NCAA football season is over, NFL Draft odds will solidify after key events such as the underclassmen declaration deadline, the NFL Scouting Combine, and pro days. In the weeks leading up to the draft, sportsbooks will offer more NFL Draft prop bets.
Understanding NFL Draft odds
The odds of going first overall in the NFL Draft will typically look like this:
- Arch Manning +250
This means that if you placed a $100 bet on Manning, you would win $250 if the Longhorns QB goes first overall in 2027. When you get closer to the draft, and there is a consensus on who will go first overall, you might see a player with a minus sign (-) ahead of his odds, like this:
- Dante Moore -550
This means you'd have to bet $550 to win $100 on Moore being drafted first overall.
Above we have posted the American odds for the 2027 NFL Draft. However, these are easy to convert to decimal odds or fractional odds with our odds converter tool.
Get more NFL Draft betting tips and strategies with our draft betting guide.
NFL Draft Odds FAQs
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (27%) is the betting favorite to go No. 1 overall.
Along with Smith, QB's, Arch Manning, CJ Carr and Darian Mensah are among the prospects to watch.
Indiana Hoosier QB, Fernando Mendoza went No.1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.
