The race to become the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft has a new favorite, and it's a quarterback who wasn't even on most people's radar entering the season.
Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker has surged to a 41% implied probability of going first overall, overtaking Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith (30%) following another monster performance. Meanwhile, Notre Dame's CJ Carr (11%) and Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss (10%) remain in the mix, while preseason favorite Arch Manning is down at 6%.
With the college football season entering its final stretch, the latest NFL Draft odds have become a battle between Mestemaker's meteoric rise and Smith's generational talent. And with quarterbacks dominating the history of No. 1 overall selections, the Oklahoma State signal-caller is beginning to separate himself from the pack.
2027 NFL Draft odds to be No. 1 pick
| Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Drew Mestemaker (QB) |
41% |
 Jeremiah Smith (WR) |
30% |
 CJ Carr (QB) |
11% |
 Trinidad Chambliss (QB) |
10% |
 Arch Manning (QB) |
6% |
 Darian Mensah (QB) |
6% |
Probabilities updated October 27, 2026.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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2027 NFL Draft favorites to go No. 1
Drew Mestemaker (QB, Oklahoma State)
Drew Mestemaker has officially taken over as the favorite to go No. 1 overall, and his latest performance explains why. The Oklahoma State quarterback threw for 386 yards and four touchdowns in Saturday's 57-24 win over Colorado, extending his streak of 300-yard passing games to six.
He's now second nationally with 2,326 passing yards through seven games. Mestemaker's rise from an overlooked high school prospect to a potential No. 1 pick has been remarkable, and his 41% probability represents a 16-percentage-point jump from October 19.
Jeremiah Smith (WR, Ohio State)
Jeremiah Smith has slipped behind Mestemaker despite continuing to dominate at Ohio State. The superstar receiver has 52 catches for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns through seven games, but quarterback Julian Sayin's throwing-arm injury adds uncertainty to the Buckeyes' passing attack.
With Ohio State coming off a bye week, Smith remains one of the most talented prospects in the class, though history is working against him. No wide receiver has been drafted first overall since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996.
CJ Carr (QB, Notre Dame)
CJ Carr remains among the leading contenders at 11%, but he has some ground to make up after Notre Dame's 28-24 loss at BYU on October 17. Carr completed just 27 of 49 passes for 261 yards without a touchdown in that defeat, and the Fighting Irish were idle this past weekend.
He's thrown 16 touchdown passes against just one interception this season, but the next two games against Navy and Miami will be crucial opportunities to rebuild his momentum.
Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss)
Trinidad Chambliss has emerged as another contender, climbing to a 10% implied probability despite a difficult outing in Saturday's 34-27 loss at Texas. The Ole Miss quarterback threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns but was intercepted three times, including on the final play as the Rebels threatened to force overtime.
Chambliss has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but that performance serves as a reminder of the volatility in this quarterback class.
Popular NFL betting tools
NFL Draft betting trends
• Quarterback is the most important position on the football field, and following Las Vegas selecting Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 in 2026, 22 of the last 29 first-overall picks have been quarterbacks.
• All but two of the last 18 NFL Drafts have featured at least one offensive lineman selected in the Top 10. The 2025 draft was no exception, with Will Campbell going fourth, Armand Membou seventh, and Kelvin Banks Jr. ninth.
List of first overall NFL Draft picks
| Year | Player | Position |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 |  Fernando Mendoza |
QB |
| 2025 |  Cam Ward |
QB |
| 2024 |  Caleb Williams |
QB |
| 2023 |  Bryce Young |
QB |
| 2022 |  Travon Walker |
DE |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence |
QB |
| 2020 |  Joe Burrow |
QB |
| 2019 |  Kyler Murray |
QB |
| 2018 |  Baker Mayfield |
QB |
| 2017 | Myles Garrett |
DE |
| 2016 |  Jared Goff |
QB |
How to bet on the 2027 NFL Draft
Sportsbooks typically post odds for the player to go first overall shortly after the previous year's draft. Once the college football season begins, these odds can change weekly depending on player performances, draft evaluations, and team needs.
This NFL futures market also accounts for which teams are projected to hold the earliest picks, particularly those needing a quarterback.
After the college football season concludes, NFL Draft markets continue to evolve following the underclassmen declaration deadline, NFL Scouting Combine, and individual pro days. In the weeks leading up to the draft, sportsbooks typically offer additional NFL Draft prop bets.
Get more NFL Draft betting tips and strategies with our draft betting guide.
NFL Draft Odds FAQs
Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker is the betting favorite to go No. 1 overall.
Along with Mestemaker, WR, Jeremiah Smith and QB's, Arch Manning, CJ Carr, Darian Mensah are among the prospects to watch.
Indiana Hoosier QB, Fernando Mendoza went No.1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.
