We’ve reached Week 11 of the college football season, and the NFL Draft odds board has been completely reshuffled.
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has emerged as the new favorite to go No. 1 overall, leading the Crimson Tide on a seven-game win streak and into the No. 4 spot in the AP Poll.
2026 NFL Draft odds to be No. 1 pick
| Player | Position |  |
|---|---|---|
 Ty Simpson |
QB | +185 |
 Fernando Mendoza |
QB | +300 |
 Dante Moore |
QB | +600 |
 Rueben Bain Jr. |
DE | +750 |
 LaNorris Sellers |
QB | +800 |
 Arvell Reese |
LB | +1500 |
 Garrett Nussmeier |
QB | +3000 |
 Jayden Maiava |
QB | +3300 |
 Arch Manning |
QB | +4500 |
 Cashius Howell |
DE | +4500 |
Odds as of 11-5.
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NFL Draft betting trends
• Quarterback is the most important position on the football field, and following Tennessee taking Cam Ward at No. 1 in 2025, 21 of the last 28 first-overall picks have been QBs.
• All but two of the last 18 NFL Drafts have seen an offensive lineman get picked in the Top 10, with 2025 being no different, as Will Campbell went fifth, Armand Membou went seventh, and Kelvin Banks Jr. was picked ninth.
List of first overall NFL Draft picks
| Year | Player | Position |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 |  Cam Ward |
QB |
| 2024 |  Caleb Williams |
QB |
| 2023 |  Bryce Young |
QB |
| 2022 |  Travon Walker |
DE |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence |
QB |
| 2020 |  Joe Burrow |
QB |
| 2019 |  Kyler Murray |
QB |
| 2018 |  Baker Mayfield |
QB |
| 2017 | Myles Garrett |
DE |
| 2016 |  Jared Goff |
QB |
| 2015 |  Jameis Winston |
QB |
| 2014 |  Jadeveon Clowney |
DE |
| 2013 |  Eric Fisher |
OT |
| 2012 |  Andrew Luck |
QB |
| 2011 | Cam Newton |
QB |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford |
QB |
| 2009 |  Matthew Stafford |
QB |
| 2008 |  Jake Long |
OT |
| 2007 |  JaMarcus Russell |
QB |
| 2006 | Mario Williams |
DE |
How to bet on the 2026 NFL Draft
Sportsbooks will post odds for the player to go first overall in the draft as soon as the previous year's draft is over. Once the college football season begins in September, these odds could change weekly depending on how players are performing as well as the evaluations of trusted draftniks such as Mel Kiper Jr.
In addition, this NFL futures bet may also take into account the team needs of the worst team(s) in the NFL.
After the NCAA football season is over, NFL Draft odds will solidify after key events such as the underclassmen declaration deadline, the NFL Scouting Combine, and pro days. In the weeks leading up to the draft, sportsbooks will offer more NFL Draft prop bets.
Understanding NFL Draft odds
The odds of going first overall in the NFL Draft will typically look like this:
- Arch Manning +200
This means that if you placed a $100 bet on Manning, you would win $200 if the Longhorns QB goes first overall in 2026. When you get closer to the draft and there is a consensus on who will go first overall, you might see a player with a minus sign (-) ahead of his odds, like this:
- Carson Beck -550
This means you'd have to bet $550 to win $100 on Beck being drafted first overall.
Above we have posted the American odds for the 2026 NFL Draft. However, these are easy to convert to decimal odds or fractional odds with our odds converter tool.
Get more NFL Draft betting tips and strategies with our draft betting guide.
NFL Draft Odds FAQs
QBs Drew Allar and Garrett Nussmeier are the early favorites to go first overall.
Along with Manning, Allar, and Nussmeier, QB Cade Klubnik, S Caleb Downs, and DLs T.J. Parker and Keldric Faulk are among the top prospects in 2026.
Miami quarterback Cam Ward went No. 1 to the Tennesee Titans.
