We made it. Seven months of mock drafts, free-agent grades, training camp reports, and convincing ourselves that this is definitely the year our team figures it out are finally over. The NFL is back.
And Week 1 doesn't exactly ease us into the season. We get a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks to kick things off tonight, followed by the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams taking their rivalry to Australia for Thursday Night Football.
I've spent the week digging through all 16 matchups, and below are my NFL picks against the spread for every game on the Week 1 board.
Check out our NFL picks for more expert betting analysis throughout the week.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 1
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| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Patriots vs  Seahawks |
-3.5 |
 49ers vs  Rams |
+3.5 |
 Buccaneers vs  Bengals |
+3.5 |
 Saints vs  Lions |
-6.5 |
 Jets vs  Titans |
+1.5 |
 Ravens vs  Colts |
-3.5 |
 Falcons vs  Steelers |
-3.5 |
 Bears vs  Panthers |
-3.5 |
 Browns vs  Jaguars |
-9.5 |
 Bills vs  Texans |
+1.5 |
 Dolphins vs  Raiders |
+3.5 |
 Packers vs  Vikings |
-1.5 |
 Commanders vs  Eagles |
+5.5 |
 Cardinals vs  Chargers |
+9.5 |
 Cowboys vs  Giants |
+2.5 |
 Broncos vs  Chiefs |
+2.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 1 NFL ATS picks
Patriots vs. Seahawks: Seahawks -3.5
I’m not betting on New England catching lightning in a bottle twice. The Patriots’ Super Bowl run was real, but TreVeyon Henderson being unavailable removes perhaps their most dangerous explosive weapon, and Seattle already showed how uncomfortable Mike Macdonald’s pressure packages can make Drake Maye.
Read Jason Logan's full Patriots vs. Seahawks predictions.
49ers vs. Rams: 49ers +3.5
The Rams are probably the better team, but 4.5 points is too much for me in a divisional matchup this familiar. Aaron Donald sitting out matters enormously for a San Francisco offensive line with questions inside, while Nick Bosa’s return gives the Niners another way to disrupt Matthew Stafford.
Add George Kittle potentially returning and suddenly San Francisco looks much healthier than it did a few weeks ago.
Read Joe Osborne's full 49ers vs. Rams predictions.
Buccaneers vs. Bengals: Buccaneers +3.5
Cincinnati may ultimately be the better team, but I'm not laying more than a field goal in what could become a track meet. The Bengals overhauled their defense, and Tampa Bay still has Baker Mayfield and enough offensive weaponry to attack a unit that may need time to come together.
Baker’s turnover tendency scares me, but that's baked into the number. With one of Week 1's highest totals, possessions should be plentiful. Give me the hook with Tampa Bay +3.5.
Saints vs. Lions: Lions -6.5
The Lions are replacing Taylor Decker and changing offensive coordinators, yet they still possess considerably more offensive firepower than a Saints team entering Week 1 with Tyler Shough at quarterback.
Jets vs. Titans: Jets +1.5
This might be my favorite trench mismatch of Week 1. Tennessee surrendered 56 sacks last season, and now that offensive line has to deal with a Jets front featuring rookie David Bailey.
Cam Ward can make special plays, but constantly asking your quarterback to create outside structure isn't sustainable. On the other side, Geno Smith has Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall and a much better offensive line around him. Tennessee being favored here surprises me a bit.
Ravens vs. Colts: Ravens -3.5
Week 1 is when I want to bet continuity, and Baltimore has it where it matters most. Lamar Jackson walks into another season in an offense built around everything he does well, while his mobility creates an immediate stress test for an Indianapolis defense that has to maintain gap integrity on every snap.
The Colts have enough talent to keep this competitive, but I trust Baltimore’s floor considerably more.
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Falcons vs. Steelers: Steelers -3.5
This is a brutal spot for Atlanta to unveil its new offense. Tua Tagovailoa won the quarterback competition, but now he gets T.J. Watt in Pittsburgh while learning a new system.
Atlanta’s own pass rush is simultaneously compromised after losing Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., who combined for 16 sacks last season.
That makes life much easier for Pittsburgh’s questionable tackles. There are uncertainties on both sides, but the Steelers have the defensive matchup advantage I trust most.
Bears vs. Panthers: Bears -3.5
I’m willing to buy Chicago before this gets to a field goal. The Bears scored 441 points last season, Caleb Williams is finally operating with some continuity, and an offensive line that allowed only 24 sacks gives him a solid foundation entering Week 1.
Carolina still needs Bryce Young to prove he can consistently generate offense when the Panthers fall behind schedule. Chicago has more ways to create explosive plays, and I do think they are more than four points better.
Browns vs. Jaguars: Jaguars -9.5
Laying 10 points in Week 1 normally makes me uncomfortable. Cleveland makes me willing to do it. Deshaun Watson is making his first regular-season start since 2024 behind an offensive line featuring rookie left tackle Spencer Fano, who draws Josh Hines-Allen in his NFL debut.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, returns almost its entire starting lineup. That continuity is a massive advantage this early in the season.
Bills vs. Texans: Texans +1.5
Buffalo being Buffalo appears to be doing some work in this number. Houston already owned one of the NFL's better defenses, then spent the offseason attacking the part of its roster that wasn't good enough: the offense.
David Montgomery adds a physical running element, the offensive line was reinforced, and three of Houston's first four draft picks went to that side of the ball.
Josh Allen is always terrifying, but this game is essentially a pick'em in Houston. Give me the Texans plus the points.
Dolphins vs. Raiders: Dolphins +3.5
This isn't an endorsement of Miami. It's a rejection of laying 3.5 points with Las Vegas.
The Dolphins are rebuilding under Jeff Hafley, but the Raiders also have their own transition happening with a new coaching staff, a new offensive system and 38-year-old Kirk Cousins. In a game carrying a total around 40, every point becomes more valuable.
Packers vs. Vikings: Vikings -1.5
Kyler Murray learning Kevin O’Connell’s offense introduces some uncertainty, but Green Bay has bigger immediate problems with Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs unavailable.
That's elite production missing from both sides of the football. Minnesota also gets to unleash Brian Flores' pressure packages at U.S. Bank Stadium, where communication becomes another problem for visiting offenses.
At -1.5, I'm not asking Murray to light up Green Bay in his Vikings debut. I'm essentially asking Minnesota to win at home.
Commanders vs. Eagles: Commanders +5.5
Philadelphia is more talented, but nearly a touchdown feels like we're pricing the Eagles as though nothing changed.
Both offenses are installing new coordinators, and Philadelphia is asking Jalen Hurts to adjust to Sean Mannion's system after an uneven training camp.
Washington gets Jayden Daniels back and added Stefon Diggs, giving the Commanders considerably more explosive-play potential. Vic Fangio's defense is the matchup concern, but Washington doesn't need to win. In a divisional game with this much offensive transition, I'll grab 5.5.
Cardinals vs. Chargers: Cardinals +9.5
Do I think Arizona wins? Probably not. Do I think the Chargers should automatically be laying double digits in Week 1? Absolutely not.
Jacoby Brissett gives Arizona a veteran quarterback, while Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride provide enough receiving talent to sustain drives and threaten the back door. Jim Harbaugh has built a much better Chargers team, but covering 10.5 requires more than simply being better.
In a week filled with uncertainty, I'll take the enormous cushion with Arizona.
Cowboys vs. Giants: Giants +2.5
The star on the helmet is doing too much work here. Dallas went 7-9-1 last season and surrendered 511 points, yet we're being asked to lay points on the road in Week 1 against a division rival.
New York wasn't good either, but John Harbaugh immediately raises the defensive floor, while Malik Nabers gives the Giants a weapon capable of changing a game with one touch.
I'll buy what Harbaugh is selling, at least for one week.
Broncos vs. Chiefs: Broncos +2.5
Patrick Mahomes could walk onto the field on one leg, and I'd still hate betting against him. But there's a price for everything.
Mahomes is only nine months removed from tearing his ACL and LCL, while Kansas City also has uncertainty at left tackle.
Denver arrives with Bo Nix, Sean Payton and far greater offensive continuity. Give me the team trending upwards as an underdog.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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