The AFC is down to two squads, with the New England Patriots heading into the altitude to take on the Denver Broncos at Empower Field.
The Broncos are turning to Jarrett Stidham under center after a season-ending Bo Nix ankle injury, and while there's reason to be skeptical, our Patriots vs. Broncos predictions and NFL picks have reason to be optimistic, too.
Patriots vs Broncos predictions
- Broncos +5.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
- Under 41.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
- Hunter Henry anytime touchdown (+200 at FanDuel)
- Drake Maye Over 223.5 passing yards (-112 at FanDuel)
Patriots vs Broncos best bets
Broncos +5.5
This spread has moved seven points from the look-ahead line due to Jarrett Stidham replacing an injured Bo Nix at QB. That looks like an overreaction, given Stidham's familiarity with this offense and his solid track record.
Across four career NFL starts, Stidham has completed 62.5% of his passes for 270 passing yards per game with a passer rating of 89.7. He won't be asked to do too much since the Denver Broncos are anchored by their elite defense. They boast the league's best pass rush, which will make things tough for New England Patriots pivot Drake Maye, who has been sacked a whopping 57 times.
Under 41.5
The Pats benefited from an error-plagued performance from Texans QB C.J. Stroud, which helped their offensive effort appear stronger than it really was. New England scored a defensive touchdown, averaged only 4.0 yards per play, and had three turnovers of its own against Houston’s top-tier defense.
The Broncos present more of the same. Denver ranks among the top stop units in the land and will lean heavily on that defense to keep the team within striking distance. This Broncos playbook was conservative with Nix, but it will be very vanilla with Stidham as it tries to lure the Pats into a low-scoring grinder.
Patriots vs Broncos TD picks
Hunter Henry anytime touchdown
Dalton Kincaid burned the Broncos for 83 yards and a touchdown on six catches last week, and Hunter Henry will likely be a focal point of attack for the Patriots.
Henry is Drake Maye’s go-to target in the red zone, with his 22 targets inside the 20 being bested on the season by only five other players. Five of those targets have led to touchdowns, and he’s found the endzone in three of his last five games.
Patriots vs Broncos props
Drake Maye Over 223.5 receiving yards
Drake Maye has cleared this total in 14 of 19 games, and while there have been the noted playoff hiccups, he did pace the league in EPA+CPOE composite and yards per attempt during the regular season.
This matchup against the Broncos might not be as tough as it is being billed, either.
Patriots vs Broncos odds
Patriots vs Broncos game info
| Location: | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Sunday, January 25, 2026 |
| Kickoff: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
CBS |
Patriots vs Broncos latest injuries
Patriots vs Broncos weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
