The Carolina Panthers head to the Sunshine State to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL action today. Carolina has the worst record in the league at 2-13 but Jacksonville hasn't exactly looked good lately either, losing four in a row.
Oddsmakers expect the Jags to snap that skid in this Week 17 matchup with NFL odds installing them as 6.5-point home favorites. Here are my free NFL picks for the Panthers vs. Jaguars on December 31.
Panthers vs Jaguars odds
Panthers vs Jaguars predictions
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-4 straight up and against the spread in their last four games and are coming off an ugly 30-12 loss to the Buccaneers. The biggest betting concern about backing the Jags right now is the health of franchise QB Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence has been getting the crap beaten out of him over the last month. He played through an ankle injury in Week 14 before getting a concussion in Week 15, and then suffered an injury to his throwing shoulder last week.
Lawrence was a limited participant in practice on Thursday and it's uncertain whether he or backup C.J. Beathard will suit up on Sunday. That said, Lawrence at clearly less than 100% might not be much better than the subpar Beathard. Since Week 14, Lawrence is just 26th among quarterbacks in EPA/play while ranking 32nd in completion percentage (57.4%).
Jacksonville has also been struggling on the other side of the ball. Since their bye at the start of November, the Jags are just 28th in defensive EPA and success rate.
The Panthers are a terrible team as their 2-13 record would suggest, but after struggling mightily all season we've recently seen them a bit undervalued. They are 3-1 ATS in their last four games with an upset win against the Falcons two weeks ago and a competitive 33-30 loss to the Packers last week.
The biggest positive of that defeat to the Packers was the play of No. 1 draft pick Bryce Young. Young put together his best performance of the season, completing 23 of 36 passes for 312 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions.
With this Panthers offense trending in the right direction and the Jags looking like a mess on both sides of the ball, I'll lean towards the underdogs on the spread, but I recommend buying half a point to get that key number of 7.0.
My best bet: Panthers alternate spread +7 (-125 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Panthers vs Jaguars spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Jaguars as 6.5-point favorites. While early money came in on the Jags, shifting that spread to -7, buyback immediately came in on the other side moving this line back down to -6.5 by Wednesday. Earlier last week, the look-ahead line was as high as Jacksonville -9.
The Over/Under opened at 37.5 and has moved up ever-so-slightly to 38. Both numbers are lower than the lookahead total which was at 39.5 and given the status of Lawrence the lower number makes plenty of sense.
The Jaguars are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games with their last two losses coming by more than two touchdowns. The Panthers are just 4-9-2 ATS this season but have covered in three of their last four games. The Under is 7-2 in their previous nine contests.
Panthers vs Jaguars betting trend to know
The Jaguars are 2-5 SU and ATS in seven games at home this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Jaguars.
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Panthers vs Jaguars game info
| Location: | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, December 31, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Jaguars -6.5, 37.5 O/U |
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