Drake Maye has thrown 10 touchdown passes during New England’s three-game winning streak, but our Patriots vs. Bears score prediction expects Chicago to bring that run to an end tonight when these two 4-2 teams meet at 8:15 pm ET (Prime Video) from Soldier Field in Chicago.
Our AI projection model forecasts a 24-23 Bears win as part of our NFL AI predictions for Week 7, putting us on Patriots +3.5 and Under 50.5. Below, we break down those picks, make our anytime touchdown selection, and compare our AI model's picks with our Covers projections and expert picks using the latest odds from the best prediction market apps.
Patriots vs Bears score prediction & AI picks
Win probability courtesy of Kalshi at time of publish; odds may vary.
Patriots vs Bears AI prediction
THU · 8:15 pm ET · Prime Video
Win probability based on marketMore analysis
New England’s route to a cover starts on first and second down. Chicago ranks 29th in defensive EPA per play on those downs but fifth on third down, making early passing success especially important for a depleted Patriots line. Play-action gives Maye a way to attack: the Bears rank 28th in EPA per dropback against play-action from under center. Keeping extra blockers in can help protect him while receivers work downfield. With guards Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker out and tackle Morgan Moses questionable, avoiding obvious passing situations is central to our Patriots +3.5 case.
New England’s recent red-zone defense gives the Under a route even if both quarterbacks move the ball. Opponents have scored touchdowns on just 40% of their red-zone trips over the past three games; forcing Chicago to settle for field goals would help keep this near our 47-point projection. The risk is clear: Caleb Williams threw for 305 yards in his return, and Patriots cornerback Carlton Davis III is out. Joe Osborne backs Over 50.5 in his Patriots vs. Bears prediction. We retain Under 50.5, with explosive scores and short fields the biggest threats.
Patriots vs Bears AI touchdown projection
Patriots vs Bears AI projections & expert picks
| AI model | Covers projections | Covers expertBy Joe Osborne |
|---|---|---|
| NE+3.5 | NE+3.5 | NE+3.5 |
Our AI model is in agreement with both our full Covers projections and our expert Joe Osborne with Patriots +3.5 as the top pick for Thursday Night Football tonight. Our AI model expects a one-point Bears win, while the Covers projected score favors New England outright and Joe Osborne backs the road underdog in his Patriots vs. Bears picks.
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How our NFL AI predictions work
Our NFL AI predictions use a custom forecasting model built with GPT-6 Astra to project a final score for each matchup using historical scoring results and team-strength ratings. We review injuries and matchup news for the accompanying analysis.
The score forecasts are fixed before we compare them with the selected Kalshi spread and total to produce our ATS and Over/Under picks. Kalshi percentages are market quotes, separate from the score forecasts. Our touchdown pick is an AI-assisted editorial selection based on player usage and matchup research, not an output of the team-score model. We track results against the original selections and lines at time of publish.
We’ll continue updating the process as the season develops and publicly track every published score prediction, ATS pick, and Over/Under selection.
