Prime-time football blows into the Windy City in Week 7, as the Chicago Bears take on the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football tonight.
My Patriots vs. Bears prop picks break down individual performances, key mismatches, statistical models, and prediction markets to find the best NFL picks for Oct. 22.
Meanwhile, Joe Osborne’s Patriots vs. Bears predictions are banking on plenty of points at Soldier Field.
Best Patriots vs Bears props
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 A.J. Brown 70+ receiving yards |
50% |
 D’Andre Swift 3+ receptions |
54% |
| Caleb Williams 1+ touchdown |
21% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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More Patriots vs. Bears Thursday Night Football coverage
- Patriots vs. Bears prediction, picks and odds: Joe Osborne’s full game breakdown and top pick
- Patriots vs. Bears best bets and expert picks: four plays from the Covers staff
- Patriots vs. Bears computer picks and player prop projections: eight TNF props with Kalshi probabilities
- Patriots vs. Bears anytime touchdown scorer predictions: Kyle LaRusic’s TD picks and long shots
- Patriots vs. Bears parlays and top combo picks: three TNF combos from Jason Logan
- NFL Week 7 picks against the spread: expert ATS picks for every game, including Patriots vs. Bears
Prop pick #1: A.J. Brown 70+ receiving yards
It’s safe to say A.J. Brown’s return on investment hasn’t been great for the New England Patriots so far.
The Pats’ big-name acquisition was injured in Week 1 and had an ugly return in Week 6, catching only three of 10 targets for 27 yards, including three drops.
Both Brown and his QB Drake Maye said all the right things after that sloppy showing, and with the rust shaken off, New England should continue to trust its WR1.
That’s especially true considering leading receiver Romeo Doubs was placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury this week.
Brown had success against this Chicago Bears defense last season, when he was with Philadelphia. He hauled in 10 receptions for 132 yards and two touchdowns in Week 13.
Brown does his best work against man coverage, ranking among the top WRs versus man at PFF over the previous four seasons. He now faces a Chicago secondary that’s missing bodies and uses man coverage at the league’s second-highest rate this season.
Brown’s projections for Thursday sit between 70 and 88 yards. My number comes out at 78 receiving yards, respecting the higher ceiling given the matchup and the pass-positive game script for New England.
Brown is also one of four plays in our Patriots vs. Bears expert picks, joined by Swift receptions, the Over and the Bears moneyline.
Prop pick #2: D’Andre Swift 3+ receptions
The Bears’ rushing attack is missing Kyle Monangai as much as I miss flip-flop weather. Chicago has mustered only 3.0 and 3.6 yards per carry without him in the past two games.
Monangai has been ruled out for Thursday with thumb and turf toe injuries, and he will miss a third straight game.
With D’Andre Swift unable to gain traction on the ground, Ben Johnson is finding other ways to get the ball in the running back’s hands.
Swift has been targeted 10 times over the past two games, hauling in eight catches for 56 yards. His Week 7 models lean toward three grabs, with a high of 2.8 receptions forecasted.
New England has shown a soft spot against pass-catching RBs this season, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to the position and ranking 22nd in pass-defense DVOA versus running backs at FTN.
Prefer a yardage angle? Our Patriots vs. Bears computer picks project Swift’s receiving yards, along with seven other TNF player props. Swift’s receptions also pair with Brown’s yardage and the Bears moneyline in our Patriots vs. Bears parlays and top combo picks.
Prop pick #3: Caleb Williams 1+ touchdown
Caleb Williams looked good in his return from a hamstring injury last week.
The Bears QB passed 36 times against Atlanta but was less inclined to take off running than he was in the opening two weeks of the season.
With a few more days to strengthen that hamstring, Williams’ rushing projections look very positive, as models flirt with 30 rushing yards in Week 7.
He had solid production with his legs against the blitz-heavy schemes of Carolina and Minnesota (before getting hurt against the Vikings) and now faces a Patriots defense that brings extra rushers at the ninth-highest rate.
I like Williams to go for 20+ rushing yards on TNF (51%), and there’s value in buying his touchdown prop too.
New England also has a very stingy red-zone defense that has tightened the bolts in recent weeks, allowing a measly 40% touchdown rate to opponents over the past three games. That could leave Williams coming up empty on his progressions and opting to run it in himself.
Williams rushed for two touchdowns in the Week 1 win versus the Panthers and has six red-zone runs in his two-and-a-half outings this season. His touchdown probabilities sit as high as 31% for Thursday.
Kyle LaRusic’s Patriots vs. Bears anytime touchdown picks also favor a sprinkle on Caleb Williams to find paydirt in prime time.
- Prop picks: 25-11, +13.14 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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