It’s time to be thankful and enjoy some post-holiday football. We’ve got you covered for NFL props because we’ve spent all week looking into every NFL market in search of value and great numbers—so you don't have to!
Today, we’re looking to cash some big tight end touchdown props, fading a pair of QBs and backing a quarterback whose last name is a structure AND a liquid.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 12.
NFL Prop Picks for Sunday
Buckingham Dallas
Philadelphia coach Doug Pederson is doubtful that TE Zach Ertz will suit up on Monday against the Seahawks and their garbage pass defense. Ertz has missed the last four games with Dallas Goedert benefitting the most, as he has 25 percent of the team’s air yards over the last two weeks, and led the Eagles in receiving with 77 yards and a TD in Week 11.
We will be waiting for Goedert’s markets to open once the Ertz news is official and will be looking to hit the Over on his receiving yards. In the meantime, we have no problem putting some money on his anytime TD prop that sits at a tasty +280.
While we’re here, we might as well sprinkle some on his two-or-more TD prop. If Ertz sits, and Pederson believes he will, these prices will drop quickly.
PREDICTION: Dallas Goedert Over 0.5 TDs (+280) and Over 1.5 TDs (+2,000)
Tannehill Without Grace
The Titans are losers of three of their last five and have played some elite defenses in Pittsburgh, Chicago, Indianapolis and Baltimore. This week, they face the Colts for the NFC South division lead and could be without some important pieces of their offense.
Tennessee’s starting center and left guard are questionable. They’re already without their starting left tackle and his backup, and now face an Indianapolis defense rated No. 5 in DVOA.
The Titans have really ramped up their running game on early downs in the first half according to Warren Sharp on Twitter. Tennessee is running 62% (up from 52% in the team’s first five games) of the time on early downs in the first half, which leads the league.
Already without WR Adam Humphries, it could be an uneventful day for Ryan Tannehill, who is averaging just 203.4 passing yards per game over his last five contests. Opposing QBs are throwing for under 200 yards against the Colts since Week 9.
PREDICTION: Ryan Tannehill Under 242.5 passing yards (-120)
Sam to the Slaughter
The Jets will have QB Sam Darnold back Sunday, which doesn’t even register on the excitement meter. Darnold ranks dead-last in QBR which is tough to do with Drew Lock around. He will have all three of his receivers this week, but some key pieces on the offensive line are likely watching Week 12 instead of playing.
RT George Fant is doubtful and so is his backup, Chuma Edoga. Darnold’s blindside will be under constant pressure from Miami’s Top-10 pressure rate defense. The Dolphins are allowing just 209 passing yards per game on the road this year while Darnold has yet to pass for over 230 yards this year (six games).
PREDICTION: Sam Darnold Under 228.5 passing yards (-120)
Bridge of Revenge
The Minnesota Vikings have five defensive backs out or on the IR and safety Harrison Smith was limited this week but will likely suit up against the Panthers.
Last week, the Vikings allowed 31 points to the Cowboys as QB Andy Dalton tossed three TDs. Only the Seahawks have allowed more passing TDs than Minnesota this year.
Teddy Bridgewater will start this week after missing Week 11. The Carolina QB will be working on a revenge angle, as the Vikings drafted Bridgewater in 2014 with the 32nd-overall pick. He has one of the best trios of receivers at his disposal as DJ Moore, Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel are averaging 197.4 receiving yards per game and could have their way with the Minny secondary.
With Bridgewater’s Over 1.5 passing TDs at almost -200, we are passing on that prop and hitting the Over 252.5 passing yards instead. The Vikings are allowing 33 points per game at home along with 305 passing yards.
PREDICTION: Teddy Bridgewater Over 252.5 passing yards (-120)
NFL Prop Picks for Saturday
Jet Lag
Yesterday, we jumped on the Chiefs to score every quarter (they’ve hit it in five straight) and today we are playing a team that can’t stop teams from hitting the every-quarter prop.
The Jets’ quest to 0-16 is in phase three and opposing teams have been scoring early and often against the winless team. New York has played 40 quarters this year and its opponents have scored in 37 of them. That’s a prop that is 7-3 to the yes on the year.
The Dolphins sit as 6.5-point road favorites and have already beat Gang Green 24-0 this year. QB Tua Tagovailoa is questionable this week but against the Jets, it doesn’t matter as backup Ryan Fitzpatrick is just as, or even more, capable of moving this offense.
Sam Darnold will give it another shot this week but his league-worst QB rating won’t shy us away from this bet.
PREDICTION: Miami Dolphins to score in every quarter — YES (+175)
Big Bang Ridley
The Atlanta Falcons are gaining 11 yards per completed pass this year which is a Top-8 rate. QB Matt Ryan could possibly lead the league in passing yards by season’s end. This week, he could be without the unreliable Julio Jones, who is questionable with a hamstring injury.
In Jones’ absence, receiver Calvin Ridley has filled in admirably, receiving a 30 percent target share and 52 percent of Atlanta’s air yards. He’s averaging 83 yards per game on the season, which ranks him 10th in the league. The Raiders are giving up 180 receiving yards to opposing WRs this year and allowing the fourth-most passing yards over the last three weeks at 303.
Jones could suit up, but we are taking Ridley’s total early, as we think he can top his total regardless if Jones is in or not.
PREDICTION: Calvin Ridley Over 74.5 receiving yards (-120)
Kirk of Art
The Arizona Cardinals will be without WR Larry Fitzgerald (COVID) this Sunday against the Patriots. Fitzgerald has been averaging over 30 yards on 5.7 targets per game. The Cards are one the deepest receiving corps in the league and Fitz’s target share won’t go to waste.
If you can find an Andy Isabella receiving total, by all means jump on, as he has shined when put into a Top-3 role. However, we still love the total on Christian Kirk, who has emerged as Kyler Murray’s No. 2 and is averaging 53.5 yards per game. His 67 receiving yards per game over the last four weeks is just three yards behind teammate DeAndre Hopkins.
The New England secondary is giving up the highest yards per completion this year at 12.1. With Kirk’s 15.4 yards per completion, he is set up for a big day without Fitzgerald.
PREDICTION: Christian Kirk Over 52.5 receiving yards (-120)
King of the Hill
The Las Vegas Raiders have the league’s worst DVOA run defense per Football Outsiders as they are allowing 1.6 rushing TDs per game. This week, they get to face a Todd Gurley-less Falcons rushing attack. That may not be a good thing for Las Vegas as Atlanta's backup, Brian Hill, is gaining 4.4 yards per carry compared to Gurley’s 3.7.
Hill will make his first start of the year with Gurley sidelined with a knee injury. He made two starts last season and had 28 total carries. Gurley had 46 red zone rushes (80 percent share) this year which he turned into eight red zone rushing TDs.
The Falcons haven’t had the best season on the ground, as they rank as the 28th DVOA rush offense, but their 1.1 rushing TDs per game is the 10th-best mark in the league.
With Hill as the top dog against a bad rush defense and a total of 53, we’re dipping on a plus-money Hill TD play.
PREDICTION: Brian Hill Over 0.5 TDs (+145)
NFL Prop Picks for Friday
Taking Kansas
We have fallen in love with the “to score in every quarter” prop. We are 6-for-6 on this play over the last five weeks and have learned that the Kansas City Chiefs are the bosses of this prop play.
Patrick Mahomes and the boys have scored in 37 of 41 quarters this season, which is good for 90 percent. The Chiefs have cashed this plus-money prop five games in a row and will look to make it six against the Buccaneers Sunday afternoon.
Kansas City is the highest-scoring offense in the league at 32 points per game and is scoring over 34 points per over its last three games.
The Bucs were once thought of as the best defense in the league but are giving up nearly 30 points per match over their last three. You can’t stop KC.
PREDICTION: Kansas City to score in every quarter – YES (+137)
The Bad Boys Chubb
Cleveland’s Nick Chubb has topped 100 yards rushing in both games since returning from injury. He looked a little rusty in his first game but was his dominant self last week in the rain, rushing 20 times for 114 yards with a long run of 54 yards.
Cleveland will finally get to play in some good weather, as the Browns’ previous three games have come in terrible football-playing conditions. With a little more footing, Chubb and his RB-leading 5.9 yards per carry could be in for a big day against the Jaguars and their 31st-ranked defense.
Jacksonville will also be without three key defenders this week as they placed DE Josh Allen, CB D.J. Hayden and S Daniel Thomas on the I.R. this week.
We have no problem backing the league’s best rushing attack against arguably the worst defense in the league. As six-point road favorites, the Browns should be in run-mode for the majority of the game.
PREDICTION: Nick Chubb Over 88.5 rushing yards (-120)
Goff is Chucking It
The Rams’ Jared Goff has turned into quite the gunslinger over the last month. The 2016 first-overall pick is averaging 49.67 passes per game across that stretch, which leads all QBs. The Rams were once a bottom-third team in terms of pass attempts per game, but Sean McVay has opened up the playbook and has been letting Goff ball.
The Rams sit as 6.5-point home favorites against a 49ers team that is hard to watch. San Fran isn’t a great matchup for Goff, as they are allowing 32 passes per game to opposing teams this year, but with Goff’s pass attempt total at a mere 35.5, the matchup almost doesn't matter.
Goff has gone Over 35 passes in four of his last five games which includes a 38-pass game against the 49ers back on October 18.
PREDICTION: Jared Goff Over 35.5 pass attempts (-120)
Point of Kelce
KC’s Travis Kelce has the best TE matchup this week per PFF. The Chiefs’ star tight end’s primary defender is Tampa’s Devin White, who is five inches shorter and 23 pounds lighter. White is the third-worst coverage linebacker per PFF amongst 74 rated LBs.
Kelce is red-hot coming into Sunday’s showdown, having topped 100 yards receiving in three straight weeks and catching 26 balls over that time. The Chief’s TE is third in the league in receiving yards, behind only WRs Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins. The next closest TE is Darren Waller, who is 377 yards behind Kelce.
Kelce can pretty much win any matchup, but throw in one of the league’s worst coverage linebackers and the world champion could have his way all game against Tampa.
PREDICTION: Travis Kelce Over 75.5 receiving yards (-120)
NFL Prop Picks for Thursday
Results May Terry
The Dallas Cowboys have allowed a whopping 19 TDs to opposing WRs this year. To put that in context, the Seattle Seahawks and their historically bad passing defense have surrendered just 13 TDs to opposing WRs this season.
This Turkey Day, the Boys will get a heavy dose of Washington’s Terry McLaurin who has built a quick rapport with new(ish) QB Alex Smith. Over the two games that Smith has started, the second-year receiver has accumulated 12 catches (16 targets) for 179 yards. On the year, he leads his team in red-zone targets with 14 which is good for a 31 percent red zone target share.
McLaurin only has three TDs this year but one of those came against Dallas back in Week 7. He also scored a TD against the Cowboys in his only game against Dallas last season.
PREDICTION: Terry McLaurin Over 0.5 TDs (+120)
Bathing in Brady’s Badness
The Buccaneers are losers of two of their last three as Tom Brady has thrown five interceptions over that stretch. Those three contests were against two Top-7 DVOA pass defenses and things won’t get any easier for Tampa in Week 12 with the Kansas City Chiefs on deck.
The Chiefs may be junk against the run, but they do own a Top-10 pass defense. KC has held opposing QBs to the league’s fourth-lowest quarterback rating and is averaging one interception per game this season. If Kansas City can force Brady to throw downfield, it will be playing into the 43-year old’s weakness.
Brady is 0-for-19 on passes of 20 yards or more over the last month, according to Ian Rapoport on Twitter. Brady has struggled so much that even his head coach told the media that Tom may be confused by the coverages he is seeing of late—thanks coach.
We got just the right prop for you if you can’t stand Mr. Six Rings and want to possibly win some money by his misfortunes.
PREDICTION: Tom Brady Under 38.5 yards longest completed pass (-117)
Bounceback Bills
The Buffalo Bills had a full two weeks to sit and think about that catch. That’s an eternity for football players. Instead of a four-game winning streak and a two-game lead in the division, Buffalo needs to win Sunday to stave off the Dolphins, who sit one game back.
A week of extra prep will go a long way against a rookie QB in Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ defense. The L.A. D has allowed 118 points over the last four games to the Jets, Dolphins, Raiders and Broncos—two of which are the league’s worst DVOA offenses. Since the start of October, the best this defense has done was to hold the Jaguars to 29 points and the Jets to 28.
Buffalo is a Top-10 team in yards per play, is scoring 32.7 points per over its last three games and is putting more than 29 points per game at home, which included some non-optimal weather games. Things are looking pretty good in Buffalo on Sunday.
PREDICTION: Buffalo Bills team total Over 29.5 (-120)
Cincinnati’s Lost Season
The Cincinnati Bengals may have nothing left to play for after rookie QB Joe Burrow went down last week with what was a season-ending knee injury.
Backup QB Ryan Finley came in and stunk up the joint, going 3-for-10 with an interception, which led to the announcement that Brandon Allen will start in Week 12. It could be a long finish to the season as the team is already without RB Joe Mixon and now No. 2 running back Gio Bernard is in jeopardy of missing this Sunday.
Bernard is dealing with a concussion that popped up midweek, which isn’t a good sign for Sunday’s availability. If he were to sit, Samaje Perine would be the next man up. Perine has only 29 rushes over the last two seasons and is on his third team in four years.
The Bengals were already scoring a lowly 16.7 points per game over their last three weeks and we doubt things will get better with Allen (or Finley) at the helm.
The New York Giants have held their last five opponents to an average of 20.6 points per game and some expected rain could help the Giants slow down Cincy’s No. 27 DVOA offense.
PREDICTION: Cincinnati Bengals team total Under 17.5 (-120)
Year-to-date record: 111-85 (57 percent)
NFL Week 12 Prop Betting Card
- Dallas Goedert Over 0.5 TDs (+280) and Over 1.5 TDs (+2,000)
- Ryan Tannehill Under 242.5 passing yards (-120)
- Sam Darnold Under 228.5 passing yards (-120)
- Teddy Bridgewater Over 252.5 passing yards (-120)
- -
- Kansas City to score in every quarter – YES (+137)
- Nick Chubb Over 88.5 rushing yards (-120)
- Jared Goff Over 35.5 pass attempts (-120)
- Travis Kelce Over 75.5 receiving yards (-120)
- -
- Terry McLaurin Over 0.5 TDs (+120)
- Tom Brady Under 38.5 yards longest completed pass (-117)
- Buffalo Bills team total Over 29.5 (-120)
- Cincinnati Bengals team total Under 17.5 (-120)
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