One of the biggest NFL betting traps to watch out for is a favorite coming off a short week playing against a team fresh off a bye.
Week 12 features that scenario with the San Francisco 49ers facing off against the Los Angeles Rams in an NFC West showdown.
With NFL odds installing the Rams as 6.5-point favorites, can they cover despite the rest disadvantage? We let you know our thoughts as we bring you our best NFL free picks for the 49ers vs. Rams on Sunday, November 29, with kickoff at 4:05 p.m. ET.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview
This game will be taking place at SoFi Stadium, which is covered by a translucent roof, so weather won't play a role. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other Week 12 games with our NFL weather info.
49ers: Tom Compton G (Out), Tevin Coleman RB (Out), Trent Williams T (Out), George Kittle TE (Out), Jimmy Garoppolo QB (Out), Arik Armstead DL (Out), Nick Bosa DE (Out), Javon Kinlaw (Out), DJ Jones (Out), Jaquiski Tartt S (Out), K'Waun Williams CB (Out), Jeff Wilson RB (Out), Dee Ford DL (Out), Solomon Thomas DL (Out), Weston Richburg C (Out), Ezekiel Ansah DE (Out), Ronald Blair III DL (Out), Brandon Aiyuk WR (Out), Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB (Out).
Rams: Brian Allen OL (Out), Taylor Rapp S (Out), Kai Forbath K (Out), Andrew Whitworth T (Out), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Rams are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Rams.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
I'm not sure I've ever seen a team as devastated by injuries as the 2020 San Franciso 49ers, just take a look at some of their key players on the IR listed above.
Not only is the Niners offense floundering without their starting quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo), best pass catcher (George Kittle), two best offensive lineman and top two running backs, but the defense, which was arguably the best in the league a year ago, is missing almost their entire starting front—AND their backups.
After defeating the Patriots five weeks ago, the 49ers have gotten clobbered in their last three games, losing each contest by double digits. In the closest game in that span, a 10-point loss to the Seahawks, they trailed 30-7 in the fourth quarter before scoring three garbage-time touchdowns.
The Rams lost 24-16 against San Francisco earlier this season. However, they are coming off back-to-back impressive victories over playoff-caliber teams in the Seahawks and Buccaneers and currently sit atop a very competitive NFC West with a 7-3 record.
It's also worth noting that the loss against the Niners came back in Week 6, when San Fran got impressive performances from Garoppolo, Kittle, wide receiver Deebo Samuel and running back Raheem Mostert, all of whom are currently out of commission.
It seems unfair to kick a team when they're down, but if teams across the league are doing it, sports bettors may as well follow suit. Take L.A. to win and cover.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-110)
Ever since the 49ers lost Garopollo and Kittle they have really struggled to move the chains, averaging just 323 yards and 19 points per game over their last three contests.
Now they face a Rams defense that yields the fewest yards per game (291.9) and the second-fewest points per game (19.2) in the league.
Although the Rams have a strong offense, they have a tendency to turn the ball over and rank a modest 17th in league scoring with 24.3 ppg.
L.A. went just Over the total in their Week 11 Monday Night matchup with the Bucs but had cashed the Under in each of its previous six games. Look for them to get back to that trend and take the Under for Sunday.
PREDICTION: Under 46.5 (-110)
One interesting tidbit about the Rams is that even though they rank second in the league in scoring defense, they rank 25th in the league in first-half defense by surrendering 14.6 ppg through the first 30 minutes. They've been even worse lately, giving up 18.3 first-half points per game over their last three contests.
It's the second half when the Rams defense really shines, locking down opponents to the tune of just 4.6 ppg. Wager on the first half being the highest scoring half of the game.
PREDICTION: Highest scoring half - first half (-120)
49ers at Rams Betting Card
- Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-110)
- Under 46.5 (-110)
- Highest scoring half - first half (-120)
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