A middling 9-7 week (-1.02 units) dropped my NFL moneyline picks into the red after the Bears, Jets, and Bucs all came up short at home.
However, there's no time to sulk and start pointing fingers (cough, Aaron Rodgers).
It's time to bounce back in Week 3, which features plenty of intriguing matchups, including the Baltimore Ravens facing the Dallas Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro.
Led by Lamar Jackson picking apart the Cowboys' vulnerable defense, here are my favorite NFL picks for Week 3.
My NFL moneyline record is 20-12 this season for +1.73 units.
NFL moneyline picks for Week 3
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| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Falcons vs  Packers |
72% |
 Chiefs vs  Dolphins |
86% |
 Panthers vs  Browns |
60% |
 Titans vs  Giants |
59% |
 Patriots vs  Jaguars |
60% |
 Chargers vs  Bills |
75% |
 Jets vs  Lions |
74% |
 Texans vs  Colts |
59% |
 Seahawks vs  Commanders |
75% |
 Bengals vs  Steelers |
64% |
 Cardinals vs  49ers |
79% |
 Vikings vs  Buccaneers |
53% |
 Raiders vs  Saints |
40% |
 Ravens vs  Cowboys |
61% |
 Rams vs  Broncos |
44% |
 Eagles vs  Bears |
68% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Thursday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. ET
Falcons vs. Packers: Packers
Who else is excited to watch the Atlanta Falcons on national television for the next three weeks?!
This is usually the part where I harp on Green Bay's questionable offensive line, but it shouldn't matter against a Falcons defense missing Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr.
Sure, Michael Penix Jr. is an upgrade over Cooper Rush, but that won't matter much given Atlanta's bleak receiving options beyond Drake London.
The Kevin Stefanski era is already off to a messy start in Atlanta, and things will get even uglier when the Packers blow out the Falcons in prime time.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Chiefs
The Chiefs are averaging a league-high 457.5 yards per game through the first two weeks of the season, and now Patrick Mahomes & Co. get a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that just gave up 35 points to San Francisco and, outside of Chop Robinson and Jordyn Brooks, lacks any player I can name off the top of my head.
Mahomes continues to rise in the Comeback Player of the Year odds, and his probability at Kalshi will get another nice bump following a cupcake matchup.
Panthers vs. Browns: Panthers
It's time to put some respect on Bryce Young's name! Boasting a 113.3 passer rating and leading the NFL in passing touchdowns heading into Week 3, Young has Carolina's offense firing on all cylinders under Dave Canales.
Devin Lloyd is also making his mark on defense, coming off a monster performance against Atlanta with two interceptions and a sack.
Although Todd Monken is firing back at Browns critics, I don't expect him to silence the doubters for much longer.
Titans vs. Giants Giants
An injury to Jaxson Dart makes this pick more complicated than initially expected, but Jameis Winston has proven to be more than serviceable as a backup over the years.
Facing a franchise that has won just six games since 2024, I'll take the G-Men to bounce back at home.
Patriots vs. Jaguars: Jaguars
As impressive as New England's defense has looked, the Patriots have faced Drew Lock and a stale Steelers offense. Let's settle down for a second.
Drake Maye has continued to struggle since the start of last year's postseason, and now he'll face a Jaguars defense that, as Jason Logan breaks down in his Patriots vs. Jaguars early leans, excels at pressuring the quarterback with just its front four.
In the Duval heat, I'm not going against the Jags.
Chargers vs. Bills: Bills
2 teams in NFL history have started 0-2 with losses to teams with a win pct under .200 the previous year
— Doug Clawson (@doug_clawson) September 21, 2026
1995 Jaguars (1st 2 games of existence)
2026 Chargers (not 1st 2 games of existence)
Bills in a rout. NEXT!
Jets vs. Lions: Lions
Detroit showed some serious fight in the second half of what could've been a completely embarrassing loss to Buffalo.
Defensive woes aside, the Lions' offense remains elite, and I trust this group much more in crunch time, especially with Jets head coach Aaron Glenn continuing to make boneheaded decisions.
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Texans vs. Colts: Texans
Alec Pierce will be sidelined until at least midseason, Charvarius Ward is injured again, and the Colts' defense has been the worst unit in football through two weeks, surrendering an NFL-worst 7.25 yards per play.
As sloppy as Houston's start has been, the Texans overcame a similar stumble last season, and DeMeco Ryans' crew has won four straight matchups against Indy.
The Texans will keep Colts fans — myself included — miserable on Sunday.
Seahawks vs. Commanders: Seahawks
New year, new gruesome Jayden Daniels injury.
Seattle's Super Bowl-winning defense has already forced four interceptions and ranks fourth in havoc rate (43%), which spells trouble for journeyman backup Marcus Mariota.
Drew Lock looked just fine in Week 2, as did his chemistry with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so the Seahawks will win this one by double digits.
Bengals vs. Steelers: Bengals
If you enjoy watching paint dry, I highly recommend tuning into the 2026 Pittsburgh Steelers offense!
Aaron Rodgers has yet to complete a pass of 20+ yards this season, and now Pittsburgh faces a Bengals defense that has already racked up a league-high eight sacks.
Meanwhile, Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase remain the best connection in football. Expect Cincy to improve to 3-0.
Sunday, 4 p.m. ET
Cardinals vs. 49ers: 49ers
Brock Purdy boasts an absurd 80.4% completion rate heading into this NFC West matchup against Arizona, and as Geoff Clark detailed in his Cardinals vs. 49ers early leans, the 49ers are 6-2 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Cardinals, with all six wins coming by at least 16 points.
With San Francisco's stars still fairly healthy (for now), I'm backing the 49ers to stay hot.
Vikings vs. Buccaneers: Vikings
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now failed to cover in 11 straight games, and while that's more relevant to Chris Vasile's Week 3 ATS picks than this column, there's still plenty to dislike about the Bucs.
With Kyler Murray cleared to start, Minnesota's defense continuing to thrive under Brian Flores, and Baker Mayfield off to an awful start, I'm trusting the road team.
Raiders vs. Saints: Raiders
New Orleans just lost its starting left tackle to injury, Klint Kubiak has plenty of familiarity with the Saints' offense from his time as their OC, and Brock Bowers could be in line for his season debut.
Give me the Rrrrrraiders to pull off another road upset.
Ravens vs. Cowboys: Ravens
Of the Cowboys' 16 defensive series this season, opposing offenses have crossed the 40-yard line on 13 occasions.
While Jesse Minter and Anthony Weaver are still working out the kinks on Baltimore's defense, the talent on that side of the ball is hard to overlook.
Lamar Jackson & Co. will prevail in Rio de Janeiro.
Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. ET
Rams vs. Broncos: Broncos
Puka Nacua's injury status is something to monitor as the week progresses, but I'm inclined to fade the Rams in this spot, especially with Los Angeles coming off a short week and now having to travel into the thin air of the Mile High City.
Per Jason Logan, the Broncos are also 41-15 straight up (73%) at home during the first four weeks of the season since 2000.
Monday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. ET
Eagles vs. Bears: Eagles
While Caleb Williams was able to escape what initially looked like a season-ending injury, the Bears will likely be without their star quarterback in Week 3.
With Tyson Bagent also in concussion protocol, Case Keenum could be under center on MNF, and the 38-year-old hasn't started an NFL game since 2023.
Roll with the Eagles to stay undefeated.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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