Seven weeks into the college football season, the race to become the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft is looking nothing like we expected.
Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith remains the favorite after helping the Buckeyes knock off Indiana, but Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker is suddenly right behind him. Meanwhile, preseason favorite Arch Manning has fallen all the way to 5%.
With the regular season entering its second half, the biggest question surrounding the latest NFL Draft odds is whether Smith can overcome the NFL's preference for quarterbacks, or if Mestemaker's remarkable rise will carry him all the way to No. 1.
2027 NFL Draft odds to be No. 1 pick
| Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jeremiah Smith (WR) |
30% |
 Drew Mestemaker (QB) |
25% |
 CJ Carr (QB) |
13% |
 Darian Mensah (QB) |
7% |
 Trinidad Chambliss (QB) |
6% |
 Arch Manning (QB) |
5% |
 Dante Moore (QB) |
2% |
Probabilities updated October 19, 2026.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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2027 NFL Draft favorites to go No. 1
Jeremiah Smith (WR, Ohio State)
Jeremiah Smith strengthened his case with a crucial 38-yard touchdown in Ohio State's 19-15 win over Indiana, tying the Big Ten career record with 39 receiving scores. But quarterback Julian Sayin's shoulder injury could complicate things moving forward. Smith has the talent to make history, but no receiver has gone first overall since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. That's still a significant hurdle.
Drew Mestemaker (QB, Oklahoma State)
Nobody has climbed this board faster than Drew Mestemaker, who has gone from an overlooked high school quarterback to a legitimate No. 1 pick contender. He's thrown for 1,940 yards and 16 touchdowns through six games, and some prominent draft evaluators already rank him as QB1. Oklahoma State's loss to Houston hasn't slowed the market's enthusiasm. At this point, Mestemaker is Smith's biggest threat.
CJ Carr (QB, Notre Dame)
CJ Carr's stock has taken a hit after Notre Dame's first loss of the season, a 28-24 defeat at BYU. Carr completed just 27 of 49 passes for 261 yards without a touchdown and lost a fumble. He still has 16 touchdown passes against just one interception this season, but that BYU performance exposed some concerns. Carr needs another strong stretch to reclaim momentum in this quarterback race.
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NFL Draft betting trends
• Quarterback is the most important position on the football field, and following Las Vegas taking Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 in 2026, 22 of the last 29 first-overall picks have been QBs.
• All but two of the last 18 NFL Drafts have seen an offensive lineman get picked in the Top 10, with 2025 being no different, as Will Campbell went fifth, Armand Membou went seventh, and Kelvin Banks Jr. was picked ninth.
List of first overall NFL Draft picks
| Year | Player | Position |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 |  Fernando Mendoza |
QB |
| 2025 |  Cam Ward |
QB |
| 2024 |  Caleb Williams |
QB |
| 2023 |  Bryce Young |
QB |
| 2022 |  Travon Walker |
DE |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence |
QB |
| 2020 |  Joe Burrow |
QB |
| 2019 |  Kyler Murray |
QB |
| 2018 |  Baker Mayfield |
QB |
| 2017 | Myles Garrett |
DE |
| 2016 |  Jared Goff |
QB |
How to bet on the 2027 NFL Draft
Sportsbooks will post odds for the player to go first overall in the draft as soon as the previous year's draft is over. Once the college football season begins in September, these odds could change weekly depending on how players are performing as well as the evaluations of trusted draftniks such as Mel Kiper Jr.
In addition, this NFL futures bet may also take into account the team needs of the worst team(s) in the NFL.
After the NCAA football season is over, NFL Draft odds will solidify after key events such as the underclassmen declaration deadline, the NFL Scouting Combine, and pro days. In the weeks leading up to the draft, sportsbooks will offer more NFL Draft prop bets.
Understanding NFL Draft odds
The odds of going first overall in the NFL Draft will typically look like this:
- Arch Manning +250
This means that if you placed a $100 bet on Manning, you would win $250 if the Longhorns QB goes first overall in 2027. When you get closer to the draft, and there is a consensus on who will go first overall, you might see a player with a minus sign (-) ahead of his odds, like this:
- Dante Moore -550
This means you'd have to bet $550 to win $100 on Moore being drafted first overall.
Above we have posted the American odds for the 2027 NFL Draft. However, these are easy to convert to decimal odds or fractional odds with our odds converter tool.
Get more NFL Draft betting tips and strategies with our draft betting guide.
NFL Draft Odds FAQs
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (27%) is the betting favorite to go No. 1 overall.
Along with Smith, QB's, Arch Manning, CJ Carr and Darian Mensah are among the prospects to watch.
Indiana Hoosier QB, Fernando Mendoza went No.1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.
