The AFC pecking order gets a shuffle when the Jacksonville Jaguars host the reigning conference winners, the New England Patriots, in Week 3.
Jacksonville is coming off a loss in Denver while New England earned a victory in Pittsburgh this past weekend. Despite the contrasting results, my Patriots vs. Jaguars predictions aren’t discounting the home team - even if oddsmaker are.
Here are my early leans and NFL picks for September 27.
Patriots vs Jaguars predictions
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Early Patriots vs Jaguars spread pick: Pick
My first trade of NFL Week 3 was the Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 on Sunday night when odds opened across the industry. I love this home chalk under a field goal.
Jacksonville is a far better team than Pittsburgh, especially at the quarterback position. Trevor Lawrence is off to a good start in 2026 and presents an uptick in QB quality for the New England Patriots. They’ve dealt with a QB2 in Drew Lock and a zombie Aaron Rogers to open the season.
Backing up Lawrence is a Jaguars defense that’s bringing the heat with just the front four. Jacksonville is among the leaders in many pass rush metrics despite blitzing at one of the lowest rates through two weeks.
New England QB Drake Maye has already shown highs and lows, with a lingering Super Bowl hangover. He’s been sacked six times with four interceptions thrown and rates 34th among all QBs when under pressure at PFF.
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Early Patriots vs Jaguars total pick: Under 44.5
The Patriots put up 20 points on the Steelers, thanks to a fourth-quarter defensive touchdown that made things look a little better than they truly were.
New England’s offense sits in the lower third of the league in many advanced stats and has the seventh worst points per play heading on the road in Week 3.
Jacksonville has a dynamic attack, not only threatening down field with Lawrence and the passing game but also running well to start the schedule. The Jags are Top 8 in EPA per handoff and success rate per run, meaning they’re avoiding third-and-long scenarios.
We’re seeing Jacksonville sit Top 11 in first downs, third down conversions, and time of possession. The Jaguars are also eating up the ninth most seconds per play clock.
New England’s defense is still among the elite, so there are no easy yards. The Patriots protect against the deep ball and this Week 3 war will be fought in the trenches
Patriots vs Jaguars odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Patriots vs Jaguars spread: Jaguars -2.5
- Patriots vs Jaguars moneyline: Patriots 42%, Jaguars 58%
- Patriots vs Jaguars Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Patriots vs Jaguars
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Jacksonville, FL
- Venue: EverBank Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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