An 11-5 week (+1.59 units) was spoiled by the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys finishing with a 40-40 tie (scorigami alert!) on Sunday night.
My Week 4 picks were extremely bullish on Tampa Bay getting the best of Philadelphia, but I’ll be fading Baker Mayfield & Co. when they head to the Pacific Northwest to take on an elite Seattle Seahawks defense.
Bye weeks have arrived for four teams, cutting down 16 games to 14, so here are my NFL picks with moneyline odds and selections for every game on the Week 5 schedule.
Week 5 NFL moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 49ers vs  Rams |
-330 |
 Vikings vs  Browns |
-194 |
 Cowboys vs  Jets |
-142 |
 Broncos vs  Eagles |
-198 |
 Texans vs  Ravens |
-126 |
 Giants vs  Saints |
-124 |
 Raiders vs  Colts |
-330 |
 Dolphins vs  Panthers |
-102 |
 Buccaneers vs  Seahawks |
-180 |
 Titans vs  Cardinals |
-430 |
 Commanders vs  Chargers |
-158 |
 Lions vs  Bengals |
-520 |
 Patriots vs  Bills |
-420 |
 Chiefs vs  Jaguars |
-178 |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel.
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Expert Week 5 NFL moneyline picks
49ers vs. Rams: Rams (-330)
While Kyle Shanahan has often had Sean McVay’s number, the 49ers’ mounting injuries could catch up to them against their division rivals.
Brock Purdy didn’t look 100% healthy against Jacksonville, and the San Francisco QB has already thrown four interceptions in two starts.
Expect the Rams to stay undefeated at SoFi.
Vikings vs. Browns: Vikings (-194)
Minnesota holds a notable edge by staying overseas ahead of Sunday’s early game in London.
Carson Wentz will need to keep his turnover issues in check against Cleveland, but the Browns’ offense lacks the firepower to go toe-to-toe with the Vikings following a drubbing in Detroit.
Cowboys vs. Jets: Cowboys (-142)
The Cowboys have been the only offense to make Green Bay’s defense look human, and an encore is in store against a Jets team that continues to shoot itself in the foot with penalties and poor tackling.
(I'm officially out on Aaron Glenn as New York's HC).
Broncos vs. Eagles: Eagles (-198)
Philly has shown that it really doesn’t matter what elements are at play. The defending champs can win a low-scoring game, a high-scoring shootout, a matchup in blistering heat, or one in a snowstorm.
It might not be pretty, but I’m done betting against the Eagles — they'll find a way to prevail on Sunday.
Texans vs. Ravens: Texans (-126)
With Lamar Jackson sidelined, a disastrous start for the Ravens will get even worse, as Cooper Rush goes up against an elite Texans defense.
Anything C.J. Stroud & Co. can muster up on offense will be gravy.
Giants vs. Saints: Saints (-124)
Jaxson Dart's promising debut was completely upended by Malik Nabers' season-ending ACL tear.
Considering New Orleans just put up a big fight in Buffalo, I'll take NOLA to notch its first win of the year at the Superdome.
Raiders vs. Colts: Colts (-330)
The Colts beat themselves last week in SoCal, but having the Rams on the ropes was a statement in itself.
Facing a Raiders squad that lacks the talent to thrive under Pete Carroll, Indy is set to bounce back at home.
Dolphins vs. Panthers: Panthers (-102)
Tyreek Hill is officially done for the year, and Miami's offense is about to be way more one-dimensional going forward.
I’ll take a shot on Carolina, who — despite coming off a blowout loss in England — are relatively healthy heading into this showdown with the Dolphins.
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks: Seahawks (-180)
Tampa Bay’s injury report is riddled with key names, including starting corners Jamel Dean and Benjamin Morrison, who are listed as questionable ahead of the Bucs’ trip to the Pacific Northwest.
Seattle’s defense has been the most dominant unit in football through the first month of the season, and the screaming 12s at Lumen Field will help lift the Hawks to their fourth straight win.
Titans vs. Cardinals: Cardinals (-430)
As Jason Logan alluded to in his Week 5 Survivor Picks, this is the heaviest chalk the Cardinals will be all season.
A cupcake matchup against Tennessee is just what the doctor ordered following Arizona’s tough divisional losses to San Francisco and Seattle.
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Commanders vs. Chargers: Chargers (-158)
Jayden Daniels is expected to return under center for Washington, though just how healthy is he?
Los Angeles’ offense laid an egg in the Meadowlands last week, but the defense still limited the Giants to just 119 passing yards.
Against a weak Commanders secondary, the Chargers will be chomping at the bit to get back on track.
Lions vs. Bengals: Lions (-520)
The week’s biggest mismatch has Detroit’s offense squaring off against Cincinnati’s abysmal stop unit.
Meanwhile, Jake Browning has struggled to keep the chains moving for the Bengals, and the Lions trail only Denver in team sacks entering Week 5.
Patriots vs. Bills: Bills (-420)
Who needs a defense when you have Josh Allen as your quarterback?
Buffalo has won six straight home games against New England, and that streak will continue on Sunday Night Football.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Chiefs (-178)
The last time Jacksonville won a matchup against Kansas City? You'd have to go all the way back to 2009!
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense broke out against Baltimore last week, and Kansas City has too much prime-time experience to suffer a setback in Duval County.
My 2025 NFL moneyline record is 45-19 for +10.84 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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