Congrats. You’ve made it to October.
Escaping the first month of the schedule is a solid start to Survivor Pool success, especially if you’ve been able to stash away plenty of power teams for a rainy day.
Week 5 features a few one-sided matchups, so finding a solid survivor option shouldn’t be too much of a task.... as long as we don't have any more damn ties.
I give my best survivor pool NFL picks for Week 5 and highlight the “safest” selection, based on the latest NFL odds.
Best survivor pool bets for Week 5
Arizona Cardinals
Detroit Lions
My pick: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: vs. Tennessee Titans
Moneyline odds: -450 (81.82% implied win probability)
The Arizona Cardinals are beefy favorites in Week 5. Arizona is well rested after playing last Thursday and welcomes the terrible Tennessee Titans to Glendale.
Is Arizona worthy of this moneyline price? Ehhhhh…
The Cardinals could have a bad habit of playing to their opposition, which has led to four tight games to start 2025. They’re 2-2 on the season, with all four of those contests decided by a touchdown or less. This may not be a comfortable survivor pool pick.
However, the Cards will never be this big a favorite for the rest of the season, and most of their remaining games come against quality competition. Using Arizona allows you to ride a big fave while not burning up the Bills, Lions, or another top-tier team.
Safest pick: Detroit Lions
Opponent: at Cincinnati
Moneyline odds: -550 (84.62% implied win probability)
The Detroit Lions are laying the lumber on the road in Week 5. I usually stay away from visitors when it comes to survivor selections, but this Cincinnati Bengals team is in bad shape.
Not only is this defense one of the worst in the league, but it has to prep for Detroit’s offense on a short week after getting blasted by the Broncos on Monday night. If Denver can hang 500 yards on Cincy, just imagine what Jared Goff & Co. will do.
Detroit’s defense is also picking up steam, and this pass rush will go against a garden gate offensive line ranked dead last in pass block win rate at ESPN. Backup QB Jake Browning has been sacked seven times and hit another 10 times through three appearances.
According to the Week 5 odds, the Lions are the safest selection and offer moderate future value down the road, with games against the Giants and Cowboys looming in the winter.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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