It's Week 1 of the NFL season, which means my very first touchdown scorer picks of this Fall. We have a great slate ahead, and the late-afternoon games offer plenty of opportunity.
We don't have a huge amount of data to go on at this point, but looking across the matchups, these feel like the three best-value first TD picks. Read on for my NFL picks for Sunday, Sept. 13.
For more action in the scoring market, check out our complete touchdown predictions.
Best Week 1 first touchdown scorer props
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Omarion Hampton
Jayden Daniels
Ashton JeantyPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Omarion Hampton first touchdown
Omarion Hampton Kalshi probability: 20%
A strong ground game has been key to Jim Harbaugh's success throughout his career, and the Los Angeles Chargers have now added Mike McDaniel as OC.
He turned De'Von Achane into a monster in Miami with 12 touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. Omarion Hampton is leading the Chargers backfield, and the sophomore finished last season with five touchdowns, despite missing half of the season with injury.
He was dangerous in the open field and averaged six yards per reception. With McDaniel scheming to get him open, he has one of the very best in the NFL helping him.
- Matchup: Cardinals vs. Chargers
- Date/Time: Sunday, Sept.13 at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- TV: CBS
Pick #2: Jayden Daniels first touchdown
Jayden Daniels Kalshi probability: 7%
Going back to last year, we were expecting to see Jayden Daniels explode after an incredible rookie season.
Injuries took their toll, and it was very much a missed year for the Washington Commanders' quarterback; however, people have been too quick to forget that rookie season and his seven rushing touchdowns.
Whilst we need to be wary of preseason hype, there have been glowing reports from camp around Daniels, with many beat writers speculating he's back to his best.
Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles gave up the second-most rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season, allowing seven in 17 games.
Given Daniels speed and agility with his legs, and the Commanders' lack of a bell-cow RB, he's worth a bet to open the scoring here.
- Matchup: Commanders vs. Eagles
- Date/Time: Sunday, Sept.13 at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field
- TV: FOX
Pick #3: Ashton Jeanty first touchdown
Ashton Jeanty Kalshi probability: 20%
Las Vegas Raiders' running back Ashton Jeanty is off the injury report, and it couldn't happen at a better time. The Raiders announced this week that their top offensive talent, Brock Bowers, underwent a procedure and will miss this and subsequent games.
With no Bowers, it means Jeanty has a clearer path to red zone touches. Jeanty's rookie season was better from a data perspective than it looked on the box score, with 80% of his rushing yards coming after initial contact, while he generated 8.4 yards after the catch.
With better blocking and quarterback play, he could be poised for a big season.
Then we factor in the opposition. The Miami Dolphins are lacking superstars across the field and almost certainly have the worst roster in football, as well as a QB who has yet to have an extended period as a starter in this league.
- Matchup: Dolphins vs. Raiders
- Date/Time: Sunday, Sept.13 at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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