Atlanta is bringing Michael Penix Jr. back in hopes that he can lead the Falcons to their first win and first red-zone visit of the season.
The Falcons visit Lambeau Field for Green Bay’s home opener on Thursday, September 24, with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET and the Packers favored by 6.5 points.
My Falcons vs. Packers prediction expects more frustration than fireworks with the total sitting at 44.5, while one of the NFL’s top playmakers stands out for my NFL picks.
TOP Pick
Falcons vs Packers prediction: Under 44.5
Michael Penix improves an Atlanta Falcons offense that hasn’t reached the red zone, but upgrading from Cooper Rush isn’t exactly a high bar. Atlanta averaged just 20.6 points in Penix’s nine starts last season — barely above Miami’s 25th-ranked 20.4 — and only 16 points per game in five road starts, where his stats fell off a cliff. Good luck at Lambeau in prime time.
The Green Bay Packers have problems, too. Jordan Love is completing just 52.1% of his passes, Jayden Reed was carted off vs. the Jets on Sunday, and the offensive line is hurting on a short week.
The defenses offer some positives, though. Both rank inside the top nine in yards per play allowed while ranking second and third in yards per rush attempt allowed. That could create some challenging third-down attempts for offenses ranked 29th and 32nd in third-down conversion rate.
COVERS INTEL: Last season, Michael Penix Jr. had a 76.7 QB rating on the road compared to 104.7 at home.
Falcons vs Packers combo
Atlanta doesn’t need to suddenly become elite to cover +6.5 against a struggling, injured Packers offense that managed just 199 total yards last week. The Falcons’ defense can keep this close, while getting Bijan Robinson more involved should be priority No. 1.
He opened the season with eight catches for 90 yards and averaged 53.7 receiving yards in Penix’s starts last season, making 40+ a reasonable ask. With Green Bay tough against the run, short passes offer another way to feed Atlanta’s best playmaker.
Add a Bijan touchdown, and we’re backing the Falcons to have the common sense (a lot to ask, I know) to put their biggest weapon to work in a pretty big desperation spot for the team.
Falcons vs Packers combo
- Falcons +6.5
- Bijan Robinson 40+ receiving yards
- Bijan Robinson anytime TD
Falcons vs Packers player prop: Bijan Robinson 40+ receiving yards
Bijan opened the season with eight catches for 90 yards before last week’s blowout cut his workload short. He averaged 53.7 receiving yards on 6.2 targets in Penix’s starts last season, reaching 40 yards in five of nine games. With Green Bay shutting down the run, short passes are an obvious way to get Atlanta’s best playmaker involved. An offense still searching for its first red-zone trip should probably try feeding the guy defenses actually fear.
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- Top picks: 2-0, +2.00 units
- Combos: 0-2, -2.00 units
Falcons vs Packers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Falcons +6.5 | Packers -6.5
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (50%) | Under 44.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Falcons 29% | Packers 71%
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Falcons vs Packers weather
Thursday night’s forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures around 60°F at kickoff, falling into the mid-50s as the game progresses.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Falcons vs Packers trend to know
Green Bay is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Packers.
How to watch Falcons vs Packers
| Location | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisc. |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Falcons vs Packers latest injuries
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