Your first taste of NFL action in Week 3 is smothered in cheese with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football.
I top that midweek snack with my best Falcons vs. Packers prop picks, sizing up the individual efforts and measuring the matchups for my NFL picks on Sept. 24.
Best Falcons vs Packers props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 MarShawn Lloyd 30+ rushing yards |
47% |
 Drake London 60+ receiving yards |
56% |
| Tucker Kraft anytime touchdowns |
32% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Falcons vs Packers prop pick #1: MarShawn Lloyd 30+ rushing yards
The Green Bay Packers have injuries stacking up on the offensive line as well as at receiver, which could lead Matt LaFleur to a more run-centric attack. Game script also says the Cheeseheads hand off more in the second half, given Green Bay is laying -6.5 at home.
LaFleur has spread carries around in the opening two games, facing two sound run-stop units from Minnesota and New York.
Marshawn Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson got the bulk of the work in Week 2, and even with LaFleur stating Johnson will see more touches, Lloyd’s downhill running style and positive projections have me taking his Over on rushing yards Thursday.
The Atlanta Falcons also sit among the better run stop units, rated sixth in run stop win rate and seventh in both EPA allowed per handoff and opponent success rate per run. That said, the Falcons have been great getting to outside runners but are bullied on power pushes up the middle, rating dead last at FTN.
Lloyd’s Week 3 forecasts are very positive, sitting between 45 and 57 yards. That’s well past his 30+ rushing yards market and offers value to ladder his gains on the ground (40+, 50+, and 60+).
Falcons vs Packers prop pick #2: Drake London 60+ receiving yards
Atlanta gets Michael Penix Jr. back at QB in Week 3.
Even though Penix has had ups and downs in his time for the Falcons (mostly down), he’s an upgrade over what we’ve seen under center the past two weeks. It can’t be any worse.
Penix playing is a big boost for WR Drake London. He’s the QB’s favorite target and faces a zone-anchored pass defense from the Packers, who are dropping back in zone on almost 80% of snaps.
London rated out No. 4 among WRs versus zone coverage in 2025 and is currently No. 8 against zone in 2026, despite crappy QBs throwing him the ball.
His projections all sit north of 60 yards, ranging from 62 to 72 yards with my number coming out to 67+ receiving yards on Thursday. The Falcons +6.5 is a negative game script, so we’ll see plenty of passing from the visitors.
Falcons vs Packers prop pick #3: Tucker Kraft anytime touchdown
The Falcons just watched Carolina tight end Darren Waller score two touchdowns in their Week 2 belly flop and face another TE with a nose for the end zone in Green Bay.
Tucker Kraft scored six TDs in eight games before getting injured for the remainder of the season in 2025. In fact, Kraft struck for 13 touchdowns in his last 26 games going back to 2024.
He’s yet to be targeted inside the red zone in 2026, but with the receiving corps missing bodies and Christian Watson playing through pain, Kraft could find himself running more routes (13th among all TE in routes run).
Touchdown probabilities have Kraft’s chances at reeling in his first TD of the season between 30% and 41%.
- Prop picks: 10-5, +5.24 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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