Colts vs Bengals Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 14: Pittman Jr. Torches Bleak Bengals Secondary

Indianapolis is on a roll and a lot of credit has to be given to Michael Pittman Jr. for stepping up on offense. Find out why the Colts' No. 1 WR is our target of focus in Week 14 when Rohit Ponnaiya gives out his Colts vs. Bengals betting picks.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Dec 10, 2023 • 08:16 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The Cincinnati Bengals host the Indianapolis Colts in Week 14 odds of NFL action on Sunday. The Bengals are 6-6 and will look to keep pursuing a playoff spot despite the loss of superstar quarterback Joe Burrow. Meanwhile, the Colts are 7-5 and just one game behind the banged-up Jaguars for first place in the AFC South.

NFL odds for this contest have flipped, with the Colts opening as 1.5-point road faves before jumping the fence to favor the Bengals at -2. Here are my best free NFL picks for Colts vs. Bengals on December 10.

Colts vs Bengals odds

Colts vs Bengals predictions

I've been on the Michael Pittman Jr. prop train all season and it's been paying off. The Indianapolis Colts wide receiver is tied for second in the league in targets (127) while sitting fourth in receptions (87). Pittman has snagged at least eight catches in each of his last five games and he's coming off a season-high 11 receptions on 16 targets against the Titans last week.

Expect Pittman to have plenty of success against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that ranks 31st in the league in dropback success rate and surrenders 254.3 passing yards per game. Despite having subpar outside corners, the Bengals play man at the 10th highest rate in the league and Pittman boasts an elite 29.5% target share against man coverage. 

I was initially tempted to play the Over 73.5 on Pittman's receiving yards total, but considering the high winds we could see in Cincinnati on Sunday, it makes more sense to take his receptions prop since downfield passing won't be as easy for Gardner Minshew.

Over 6.5 receptions is currently priced anywhere from -122 to -140, but even the higher figure is not a high cost to bear, given how frequently Pittman has consistently surpassed that tally this year.

My best bet: Michael Pittman Jr. Over 6.5 receptions (-122 at FanDuel)

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Colts vs Bengals same-game parlay

Michael Pittman Jr. Over 6.5 receptions

Colts +1.5

Tanner Hudson Over 24.5 receiving yards

While the spread has flipped for this game, I'm going against the line movement and backing the road team here. While quarterback Jake Browning looked fantastic for Cincinnati last week, this is a sell-high spot for the backup. Additionally, the Bengals have a far worse defense than Indy, ranking 26th in defensive EPA and 31st in success rate. 

While I'm not expecting another 354-yard performance from Browning, I do expect him to hook up with tight end Tanner Hudson for at least 25 yards. Despite only gaining 18 receiving yards in Browning's initial start, he still managed to receive five targets and complete four catches in that Week 12 game.

In fact, that clash against the Steelers has been the only time in the last five games that Hudson has posted fewer than 33 receiving yards. With the Colts having a tough time covering tight ends, expect Hudson to eclipse his low receiving yards total. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Colts vs Bengals spread and Over/Under analysis

The lookahead line for this game had the Colts as 2.5-point favorites, but after Browning completed 80% of his passes for 354 yards last week, money has steadily come in on the Bengals. The Bengals were 1-point favorites by Thursday, and as of Friday, they are as high as -2 depending on the book. 

Given the Bengals' offense demonstrating its ability to score even without Burrow, and considering both teams' vulnerable defenses, the total has experienced considerable fluctuations. It initially opened at 40.5, and after being hammered by sharps and the public, the O/U has since climbed to 44. 

The Colts are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in their last four games, but the teams they played during that span were a combined 12-36 entering Week 14. The Bengals are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four, but beating the Jaguars on the road last week showed that they can't be taken lightly — even without Burrow. 

Colts vs Bengals betting trend to know

The Over is 14-5 in the Colts' last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 41% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Bengals.

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Colts vs Bengals game info

Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Date: Sunday, December 10, 2023
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
Opening odds: Bengals +2.5, 40.5

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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