The Week 11 afternoon slate is stacked with five dynamite matchups, and this AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos is going to live up to the hype Sunday, November 16.
My Chiefs vs. Broncos predictions and NFL picks expect Patrick Mahomes & Co. to cover the number at Empower Field at Mile High.
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Chiefs vs Broncos prediction
Chiefs vs Broncos Best bet: Chiefs -3.5 (-110)
This AFC West showdown is one of the marquee matinee matchups of Week 11, and when push comes to shove, I want to back the better quarterback.
Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes ranks fourth in adjusted EPA per play while airing it out for 7.4 yards per attempt, and I’m anticipating he’ll be set up for success by head coach Andy Reid following the Week 10 bye week.
On the flip side, Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix ranks 21st in adjusted EPA per play while throwing for just 6.1 YPA, and the team has been inconsistent on offense all season with below-average ranks in PFF offense grade, offensive DVOA, yards per play, and EPA per play.
Make no mistake, there’s no questioning the Denver defense. It’s just that the Kansas City stop unit is also solid.
The Chiefs hit Mile High, allowing the fourth-fewest points per game and 12th-lowest EPA per play while ranking 13th in defensive DVOA.
I also value Kansas City averaging the longest average drive length in the NFL, while also ranking ninth in third-down conversion percentage and fourth in converting fourth downs.
Expect multiple long, clock-churning drives helping the Chiefs win the time of possession battle en route to covering the number Sunday afternoon.
Finally, let’s not overlook the Chiefs have faced the hardest schedule in the league per PFF, while the Broncos have faced the seventh easiest.
Chiefs vs Broncos same-game parlay
As good as the Denver defense has looked, the Broncos have also benefited from pinning their ears back against some replacement-level quarterbacks. Just check the box scores.
Additionally, Mahomes has at least 250 passing yards in each of his past six games for a solid 8.0 YPA and 67.3 completion percentage. He’s cleared this total in four of six, too.
The Broncos have also been a little leaky against opposing tight ends the past four games and allowed the third-most yards (320) and third-highest yards per target (9.7) to the position dating back to Week 7.
Of course, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce has also recorded 43 or more receiving yards in eight of nine games and has been coming on of late with 15.6 yards per reception for 297 total yards through four games leading into the Week 10 bye.
Chiefs vs Broncos SGP
- Chiefs -3.5
- Patrick Mahomes Over 261.5 passing yards
- Travis Kelce Over 42.5 receiving yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Tight end day
As noted, the Broncos have been beaten by tight ends of late, and Noah Gray has yet to find the end zone this year after scoring five times in 2024.
Chiefs vs Broncos SGP
- Chiefs -3.5
- Patrick Mahomes Over 261.5 passing yards
- Travis Kelce Over 42.5 receiving yards
- Noah Gray anytime touchdown
Chiefs vs Broncos odds
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-120) | Broncos +3.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Chiefs -215 | Broncos +180
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-115) | Under 44.5 (-105)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Chiefs vs Broncos trend to know
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the spread in five of their past seven games. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Broncos.
How to watch Chiefs vs Broncos
| Location | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date | Sunday, November 16, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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