Kansas City @ Denver Picks & Props

The Broncos are definitely better than the display they put on against the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday Night Football last week, but they’ve also been inconsistent on offense, with below-average ranks in PFF offense grade, offensive DVOA, yards per play, and EPA per play. While there’s no questioning the Denver defense, the Kansas City stop unit is also solid, and I give a notable advantage to the Chiefs at the quarterback position. KC QB Patrick Mahomes ranks fourth in adjusted EPA per play while airing it out for 7.4 yards per attempt, while Broncos quarterback Bo Nix ranks 21st while throwing for just 6.1 YPA, after all.

JK Dobbins didn’t practice Thursday, which opens the door for RJ Harvey to take on a full workload — and he’s more than capable of handling it. Getting an RB1 in a competitive matchup at better than even money is solid value. This backfield had been a timeshare, but if Dobbins sits (and an IR stint is reportedly possible), it’s hard to see Tyler Badie cutting much into Harvey’s volume. Harvey is a complete back and game-script-proof thanks to his work in the passing game. The rookie has five total touchdowns over his last four games — three through the air and two on the ground — and with a bye coming in Week 12, he should get all the touches he can handle. A potential 70% workload makes this touchdown price well worth the play.

This is the best defense the Chiefs have faced all season and a much stiffer test than Kansas City’s recent foes that have helped spark its turnaround. Denver sits Top 5 in many of the “All Holy” advanced metrics like EPA allowed per play, success rate, and DVOA. Most importantly, this Broncos defense brings the heat. Denver leads the NFL in sacks and QB hits, while generating the fourth highest pressure rate. The Bills were able to crack a suspect KC offensive line in Week 9, sacking Patrick Mahomes three times and pressuring him on almost 53% of his dropback. The left Mahomes to go 3-for-16 passing for 61 yards and an INT when under duress.

The Chiefs are fresh off a bye but Denver will also be well-rested after playing on TNF last week. It hasn't always been pretty for the Broncos but they've been winning, going 8-2 this season while riding a seven-game win streak. Their only two losses came on last-second field goals to the Colts and Chargers. Both of those games came on the road and they have a significant home-field advantage playing at elevation. With their elite defense, I would take them at more than a FG in Denver against anybody in the league — including the Chiefs who are 1-3 SU and ATS on the road.

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.. Rashee Rice's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 81.1% to 77.7%.. This year, the strong Denver Broncos defense has surrendered a feeble 62.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 8th-smallest rate in the NFL.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Denver's unit has been very good this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league against the Broncos defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Denver's unit has been very good this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league against the Broncos defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).. The Broncos pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, yielding 7.02 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-fewest in football.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Denver's unit has been very good this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.. This year, the feeble Kansas City Chiefs defense has been torched for a whopping 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-worst rate in the NFL.

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.0 per game) this year.. The Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the best CB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.9%) versus WRs this year (69.9%).

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.0 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. In this week's game, Courtland Sutton is projected by the projections to secure a spot in the 90th percentile among wide receivers with 8.3 targets.. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.. This year, the weak Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded a colossal 87.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 6th-worst rate in football.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.1% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game.. Kareem Hunt's 40.4% snap rate this year signifies a noteable reduction in his offensive usage over last year's 51.7% figure.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.