J.K. Dobbins is done for the year, which means RJ Harvey takes over as the bellcow in the Bronco backfield. It also means he likely inherits the 20 red-zone carries Dobbins had this season. That's great news for a back who already leads the NFL in touchdown catches out of the backfield with four on the season. And he's caught touchdown passes in three of his last four games. The Chiefs rank 22nd in success rate against the run and 25th in EPA. They're also allowing 4.3 yards a carry. Running the ball is the best way for the Broncos to help Bo Nix and the offense maintain drives, and his increased snap count makes this price far too favorable to ignore.
Mahomes will be under relentless pressure from this Denver pass rush. Additionally, he will face a defense that ranks fifth in man coverage rate. That means plenty of chances to take off. The Lions are a similar defensive profile to the Broncos, and Mahomes scrambled five times in that contest while registering a season-high 10 carries. Three of those carries came via kneel-down, which is an additional boost. The Broncos are struggling to put together consistent drives and are 3.5-point underdogs here. With Mahomes likely getting a couple of kneel-downs, combined with the favorable scrambling scenario, this is a terrific floor to aim for.
Andy Reid is going to need to utilize the screen game to help slow down the Denver pass rush. With Isiah Pacheco out and the Clyde Edwards-Helaire experiment proving to be a bust, this presents a great chance for Brashard Smith to be targeted in the pass game again. Smith has electrifying speed out of the backfield and is averaging nearly nine yards a catch. The Broncos are very strong against the run, meaning the passing game will be the most efficient way for the Chiefs to get their backs involved. Before suddenly being abandoned in the last two games, Smith had at least three catches in four straight games. Look for him to be included in the game plan by Reid after having a bye week during which to prepare.
With J.K. Dobbins sidelined by a foot injury, the Denver's backfield now belongs to R.J. Harvey. The rookie RB was selected in the second round after a highly-productive career at UCF where he rushed for 1577 yards with 25 total touchdowns as a senior. Harvey has been productive in limited touches as a rookie, rushing for 214 yards and two touchdowns with 4.3 yards per carry. He's also has 25 receptions for 175 yards with another four scores through the air. Harvey has carried the ball just six times in the red zone, compared to 20 for Dobbins. Now that he's the lead back, he'll see his usage soar near the goal line.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid will need to get creative with his play-calling if he wants to score against an elite Denver defense, and that means getting the ball into the hands of Worthy. As a rookie last year, Worthy scored 12 touchdowns (nine receiving and three rushing) in the regular season and playoffs. The speedster has just one TD this season but there's plenty of reason to think that will turn around. Despite the return of No. 1 WR Rashee Rice, Worthy has held on to his starting spot while earning a snap share of 84% over the last two games. He had seven targets in both of those contests and he's still also being used as a runner, logging seven carries for 73 yards this season.
The Broncos are definitely better than the display they put on against the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday Night Football last week, but they’ve also been inconsistent on offense, with below-average ranks in PFF offense grade, offensive DVOA, yards per play, and EPA per play. While there’s no questioning the Denver defense, the Kansas City stop unit is also solid, and I give a notable advantage to the Chiefs at the quarterback position. KC QB Patrick Mahomes ranks fourth in adjusted EPA per play while airing it out for 7.4 yards per attempt, while Broncos quarterback Bo Nix ranks 21st while throwing for just 6.1 YPA, after all.
JK Dobbins didn’t practice Thursday, which opens the door for RJ Harvey to take on a full workload — and he’s more than capable of handling it. Getting an RB1 in a competitive matchup at better than even money is solid value. This backfield had been a timeshare, but if Dobbins sits (and an IR stint is reportedly possible), it’s hard to see Tyler Badie cutting much into Harvey’s volume. Harvey is a complete back and game-script-proof thanks to his work in the passing game. The rookie has five total touchdowns over his last four games — three through the air and two on the ground — and with a bye coming in Week 12, he should get all the touches he can handle. A potential 70% workload makes this touchdown price well worth the play.
This is the best defense the Chiefs have faced all season and a much stiffer test than Kansas City’s recent foes that have helped spark its turnaround. Denver sits Top 5 in many of the “All Holy” advanced metrics like EPA allowed per play, success rate, and DVOA. Most importantly, this Broncos defense brings the heat. Denver leads the NFL in sacks and QB hits, while generating the fourth highest pressure rate. The Bills were able to crack a suspect KC offensive line in Week 9, sacking Patrick Mahomes three times and pressuring him on almost 53% of his dropback. The left Mahomes to go 3-for-16 passing for 61 yards and an INT when under duress.
The Chiefs are fresh off a bye but Denver will also be well-rested after playing on TNF last week. It hasn't always been pretty for the Broncos but they've been winning, going 8-2 this season while riding a seven-game win streak. Their only two losses came on last-second field goals to the Colts and Chargers. Both of those games came on the road and they have a significant home-field advantage playing at elevation. With their elite defense, I would take them at more than a FG in Denver against anybody in the league — including the Chiefs who are 1-3 SU and ATS on the road.
This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs.. The projections expect the Broncos as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.0% red zone pass rate.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.2% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the predictive model to run 66.8 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.
The Chiefs are a 4-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league against the Broncos defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Denver's unit has been very good this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.
This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs.. The projections expect the Broncos as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs.. The projections expect the Broncos as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.. This year, the feeble Kansas City Chiefs defense has been torched for a whopping 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-worst rate in the NFL.
The Chiefs are a 4-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league against the Broncos defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).. The Broncos pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, yielding 7.02 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-fewest in football.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Denver's unit has been very good this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.0 per game) this year.. The Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the best CB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -4-point underdogs.. The projections expect the Broncos as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.9%) versus WRs this year (69.9%).
This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.0 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. In this week's game, Courtland Sutton is projected by the projections to secure a spot in the 90th percentile among wide receivers with 8.3 targets.. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.2% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the predictive model to run 66.8 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game.. Kareem Hunt's 40.4% snap rate this year signifies a noteable reduction in his offensive usage over last year's 51.7% figure.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.
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