Touchdowns were tough to find in Week 5 after several weeks of great NFL picks to open the season.
However, Week 6 offers plenty of value thanks to key injuries, evolving offensive roles, and favorable matchups.
These are my favorite NFL anytime touchdown scorer picks for Week 6, wrapping up with my Monday Night Football selections.
Best Week 6 anytime touchdown scorer picks
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| Game | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 HOUvs  JAX |
Brenton Strange |
21% |
 NOvs  NYG |
Kendre Miller |
39% |
 TENvs  IND |
Tyler Warren |
41% |
 CARvs  PHI |
Jalen Coker |
24% |
 CHIvs  ATL |
Luther Burden |
33% |
 NYJvs  NE |
Kyle Williams |
17% |
 PITvs  TB |
Germie Bernard |
23% |
 BALvs  CLE |
Denzel Boston |
33% |
 ARIvs  LAR |
Tyler Higbee |
28% |
 BUFvs  LV |
Cody White |
12% |
 LACvs  KC |
Jalen Royals |
18% |
 DALvs  GB |
Tucker Kraft |
33% |
 WASvs  SF |
Jacob Cowing |
19% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Texans vs Jaguars TD pick
Brenton Strange 20.1%
GRADE: 🟢
The Houston defense is traveling to London and ranks in the bottom half in EPA/dropback. I hate how the Jaguars use their running backs near the goal line, but Brenton Strange is priced at 4.8x compared to a fair price of 3.5x.
Strange has drawn eight targets in back-to-back weeks and is coming off two of the biggest games of his career. He hasn't scored in either outing but is seeing red-zone snaps and has emerged as the No. 2 option in the passing game.
Nobody seeing 6+ targets should be priced at 4.8x or longer for a TD.
Saints vs Giants TD pick
Kendre Miller 37.6%
GRADE: 🟡
Despite facing the Titans, Commanders, and Cardinals, New York still ranks 22nd in EPA per play allowed. The Giants also have five defensive backs on IR and another questionable this week. The Saints should be able to move the ball in Week 6.
Kendre Miller has taken over as the early-down back. He had three red-zone carries last week and was the only running back to see any red-zone opportunities. Alvin Kamara played just 12 snaps and had only one carry after the Saints' third drive.
If New Orleans reaches the red zone, it has a good chance of finishing drives with scores, as the Giants rank in the bottom third of the league in red-zone TD percentage allowed. The fair price for a Miller touchdown should be 2.4x.
Titans vs Colts TD pick
Tyler Warren 38.6%
GRADE: 🟡
The Titans are the lowest-scoring offense in football, and the survivor world will be backing the Colts this week.
Tyler Warren added a fourth-down, one-yard rushing TD last week, while leading the team with nine targets and pacing the Colts in receptions. His TD bets have returned a 78% ROI, with Warren scoring in three of his five games and being priced similarly in Week 4 to where he is this week.
The Colts also have three starters in the secondary on the early-week injury report, with starting safety Kevin Winston Jr. doubtful. Buy this to 2.4x.
Panthers vs Eagles TD pick
Jalen Coker 24.4%
GRADE: 🟢
I got this at 4.1x against a fair price of 2.4x and expect that number to drop as the week progresses. This is a classic post-bye-week value play for Jalen Coker, who faces a banged-up Eagles team on both sides of the ball.
Coker missed Week 4 before heading into the Week 5 bye, making him an afterthought for many. He was a full participant at practice Wednesday. In the two full games he's played this year, he's posted lines of 8/138/2 and 8/66/0. He's also seen five red-zone targets across those two games, more than Tetairoa McMillan.
The rest advantage for the Panthers is also significant, with the Eagles returning from London.
Bears vs Falcons TD pick
Luther Burden 33.9%
GRADE: 🟡
Caleb Williams was listed as a full participant at Wednesday's estimated walkthrough, which is great news for this offense in an indoor setting vs. Atlanta.
Luther Burden is coming off a season-high 76% snap share and added four rushing attempts. He saw another two red-zone targets and is tied for the team lead in looks inside the 20 through five games.
He has a higher target share than both Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland, yet is priced longer than both. Playing indoors should boost passing volume and efficiency, and the Bears are already running the most plays per game in the league. I got Burden at 2.95x and would play him down to 2.75x.
Jets vs Patriots TD pick
Kyle Williams 16.7%
GRADE: 🟡
I got this at 6x and have the fair price around 5x. Romeo Doubs hasn't impressed in an offense that has found a new gear over the last two weeks.
Doubs had just one catch despite playing 85% of the snaps and running a route on 92% of dropbacks. Meanwhile, speedster Kyle Williams had 91 yards and a TD on three targets despite just a 34% route share, with Efton Chism and Demario Douglas contributing, too.
Williams is getting more looks and played 41% of the snaps in three-WR sets. With Mack Hollins out, Williams should get his chances to impress and stretch the New York defense in an offense that ranks No. 1 in EPA per dropback over the last two weeks. He doesn't need much volume to cash this.
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Steelers vs Buccaneers TD pick
Germie Bernard 22.7%
GRADE: 🟢
Germie Bernard will be the WR2 in the passing game this week with Roman Wilson, Ben Skowronek, and Michael Pittman out.
When Wilson exited last week, Bernard played 93% of the snaps and posted a 6/80/0 line on a team-high nine targets. Aaron Rodgers has also talked up the rookie, which isn't something that happens every day.
A WR2 in this offense should be priced shorter than 4x, not the 4.35x available on Friday. In games where Bernard has played 30+ snaps, he's seen 8+ targets in each. He's also seen a red-zone target in three of his four starts.
The Bucs have two starters in the secondary listed as questionable, making a play on the rookie even more enticing at a long price.
Ravens vs Browns TD pick
Denzel Boston 32.8%
GRADE: 🟢
I'm backing Denzel Boston at 3.1x with a buy-to price of 2.85x. Boston's TD price has been as short as 2.8x already, but his TD probability is increasing each week, and even more so this week with injuries to Quinshon Judkins and KC Concepcion.
Concepcion has been limited at practice and is also coming back from a concussion, so there is some concern about his workload, while Judkins was a DNP mid-week. That's going to make Boston the focal point of this Cleveland offense at home vs. a Baltimore defense that has been more than generous to opposing wide receivers.
On the year, the Ravens are allowing the most receiving yards to the position, while Boston is accounting for 46% of the team's air yards and has scored TDs in three of five games.
Cardinals vs Rams TD pick
Tyler Higbee 27.8%
GRADE: 🟡
Tyler Higbee is at a three-week TD price high of 3.6x, which I'd play to 2.35x this week. He might be fourth on the offensive totem pole, but Higbee has emerged as the most productive tight end in this offense.
Higbee sports 5+ catches in three straight games, is coming off a season-high in yards, and has 18 grabs for 212 yards since Week 3.
There's enough volume in this offense to support a fourth mouth, as the Rams rank second in football in plays per game (70.6), with the fourth-highest pass rate over expected at +2.8%. Matthew Stafford has attempted 50+ passes in three straight games, while the Cardinals are one of just two teams allowing 70+ receiving yards and 0.80+ touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends this season.
Bills vs Raiders TD pick
Cody White 12.5%
GRADE: 🟢
Cody White was 8x midweek and should be priced at 5.75x. Jalen Nailor hasn't practiced due to a concussion, so White is going to see plenty of snaps against a struggling Bills defense that's allowing the second-most passing yards per game (280.4) and 2.6 passing TDs per contest.
The Raiders are playing at a high pace (eighth in plays per game) and passing a ton with the league's second-highest PROE. Brock Bowers is going to draw plenty of attention away from White, who is running well ahead of the receivers behind him.
It's an indoor game, and the Raiders can flirt with 25+ points.
Chargers vs Chiefs TD pick
Jalen Royals 18.2%
GRADE: 🟢
With Rashee Rice still not practicing midweek following the Week 5 bye, it's looking increasingly likely that Jalen Royals will serve as the No. 2 WR against the Chargers.
That should price Royals at 4x, not the 5.5x available Friday. The loss of Tyquan Thornton only opens up more snaps for Royals, who should see 70% of the snaps against a defense that currently has six starters listed as questionable.
It's been a couple of weeks since we've seen the Chiefs, who rank fourth in EPA/play, but with an implied team total of 25 points, Royals as a WR2 is a good look at this price.
Cowboys vs Packers TD pick
Tucker Kraft 33.3%
GRADE: 🟡
Tucker Kraft's production is rising alongside Green Bay's offense. He has 11 catches on 12 targets over the last two weeks, with four red-zone targets and a touchdown. He's priced longer to score than Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, but his fair price should be closer to 2.7x than the 3x available.
The Cowboys are one of eight defenses allowing 2+ passing TDs per game and rank dead last in EPA/dropback. None of the big three pass-catching options in this offense should be priced longer than 2.8x.
Kraft also had a QB sneak last week that could translate to a goal-line opportunity if needed.
Commanders vs 49ers TD pick
Jacob Cowing 19%
GRADE: 🟡
I got this at 5.25x, with a fair price of 4.8x if Deebo Samuel sits, which looks increasingly likely.
Deebo exited in the third quarter last week and looks set to miss multiple weeks. With Demarcus Robinson already out and Mike Evans a breath away from an injury, Jacob Cowing is a great down-the-order look on an elite offense vs. the Commanders, who rank in the bottom six in EPA/dropback on defense.
Cowing saw 92% of the snaps in 3-WR sets and could see more looks in 2-WR sets following the Deebo injury. He played more snaps last week than both Brandin Cooks and Jordan Watkins.
My weekly NFL TD props column is 18-53 this season for -4.41 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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