Broncos vs Raiders Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 18: Not So Elite QB Play

There’s good news and bad news for both the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders ahead of their Week 18 meeting at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday. The good news is that whoever wins comes second in the division, but the bad news is that neither will make the playoffs. 

Despite the Raiders never having lost to Denver since moving to Vegas, this is a game between two run-heavy teams with poor quarterbacks and there is no reason not to get on this Under early before it moves anymore in the NFL odds.

I break down the Week 17 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Broncos vs. Raiders on January 7. 

Broncos vs Raiders odds

Broncos vs Raiders predictions

I am not overthinking this game and hitting the Under at 38 before it moves any more south. 

It opened at 38.5 and has already taken some under money with a few 37.5s popping up at the time of writing on Tuesday. 

This is a game between two teams that love to run and will feature Aiden O’Connell vs. Jarrett Stidham.

The new Denver Broncos starter was nothing special last week vs. a bad Chargers defense. He finished 23rd in average intended air yards, 25th in CPOE, and 24th in third-down success rate. Denver already played at a Top-10 slow rate with Russell Wilson and things didn’t change with Stidham under center. 

The Broncos will want to run the ball but will struggle vs. a very underrated Las Vegas Raiders run defense that ranks first in success rate since Antonio Pierce took over in Week 9. 

Pierce is also fond of running with Zamir White who has 59 carries in his three starts, I can’t see Josh Jacobs coming back this week but even if he did, the Raiders will continue to run the ball.

Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in pace of play and each club is happy to lean on the run late with a lead so late scoring could be hard to find. On the season, the Raiders are 4-12 O/U on the fourth-quarter total. 

Denver could also be without receivers Marvin Mims (hamstring) and Courtland Sutton (concussion) as both pass-catchers missed last week. If they can’t go, expect this number to drop more. This is shaping up to be one of the ugliest games of the Week 18 slate. 

My best bet: Under 38 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Broncos vs Raiders same-game parlay

Under 38.5

Over 3.5 field goals

Las Vegas -2.5

+650 at bet365

There are few props available for this game so this one is a little more creative than others.

There are no flat totals at 365, hence the 38.5. I'm getting a good multiplier with the Under and Over 3.5 field goals but if this game is going to sail to the Under, it will be done with FG attempts and not red-zone success. Vegas is starting to get some money which is turning the 2.5s to 3s. The Raiders are going to finish strong for Antonio Pierce and have the motivation factor in their favor. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Broncos vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis

The Under is the move on the total in my opinion, and I think more money is going to come in on the Raiders this week that will push the 2.5s to 3s.

Despite both teams having nothing to play for, the Raiders are going to be motivated for interim coach Antonio Pierce and play well so the coach can get another win finish second in the division, and have a shot at keeping his job. 

Pierce and the Raiders are 4-4 SU since he took over (3-5 SU before him) and have more motivation than a Denver team that has gone through another season of distraction from the Nathaniel Hackett comments, to the 70-20 loss, and now the Russell Wilson benching and the noise that comes with that. 

When Pierce was asked about what might lay ahead in the offseason this week, he replied. “I’m staying present. At the end of the day, everything will be looked at by wins and losses, and I think that’s fair and that’s what this business is about. I said that at the very beginning, it's production-based, and it’s about wins and losses.” 

To me, that is more motivating than a team in Denver that benched its starter to save money and could be without its two best WRs for a second straight week. Denver’s starting right tackle also exited last week vs. LA. 

The Raiders are also a perfect 7-0 SU vs. Denver since moving to Las Vegas. It’s not that important in my handicap, but it’s worth mentioning. But ultimately, the Denver strength is in its run game and the Raiders have the best run defense in football since Week 9. Stidham is not a QB I want to back in trail-mode and he might be passing to Lil’ Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson this week with Sutton and Mims banged up. 

I love the Under 38 but also like the Raiders at -2.5 — even an expensive one. 

Broncos vs Raiders betting trend to know

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 43% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Raiders.

Broncos vs Raiders game info

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