The Buffalo Bills are in pole position for the AFC No. 1 seed, and a visit to the 2-7 New York Jets on Sunday isn’t likely to slow down Josh Allen and Co.
With a perfect 4-0 road mark this season, Buffalo enters as a 7.5-point favorite, and my Bills vs Jets predictions signal a shootout at MetLife Stadium as both teams flash their big-play strengths.
Check out our NFL picks and betting tips for Sunday's divisional matchup on Nov. 15, with kickoff set for 1 p.m. ET.
TOP PICK
Bills vs Jets prediction: Over 50.5
It'll take more than a short week to impact a Buffalo Bills offense that leads the league with 386.4 yards per game and 32 points per game — and this AFC East showdown with the New York Jets provides a familiar punching bag, with Buffalo scoring 30+ points in four of the last five meetings.
Behind Josh Allen and James Cook, the Bills are scoring on 67% of their red-zone trips — a rate they could improve against New York's shaky run defense. The Over has also cashed in three of Buffalo's four road games this year.
But this pick is about the Jets, too. Garrett Wilson's return will fuel the New York passing game, and Geno Smith won't shy away from throwing downfield — he's completed a pass of 40+ yards in four straight games. The Over is 3-1 in the hosts' past four contests, and I'd play this up to 56%.
COVERS INTEL: Look for both teams to bring aggressive aerial game plans — the Bills average 8.6 yards per pass attempt (No. 1 in the NFL), while the Jets are just inside the top 10 at 7.7.
Bills vs Jets combo
After giving up 73 points over the last two games, the Jets' defense is a gift to Over bettors, and Allen has a healthy receiving corps capable of producing big plays.
Buckle up for a major mismatch when the potent Buffalo ground game (146.6 rushing yards per game, second in the NFL) collides with a New York run defense that allows 128 rushing yards per game, ranking in the bottom 10. That paves the way for Cook to pile up carries. He's gone over this rushing attempts line in four straight games, and the Bills could lean even more heavily on the run if they build a big lead.
Look for Allen to benefit, too. With nine rushing TDs already this season, he's been unstoppable near the goal line. His scrambles to escape a dangerous Jets pass rush could also carry him into the end zone.
Bills vs Jets combo
- Over 50.5
- James Cook Over 19.5 rushing attempts
- Josh Allen anytime TD
Bills vs Jets touchdown scorer: Keon Coleman
There are more mouths to feed in Buffalo's offense with DJ Moore healthy again. But neither Moore nor Khalil Shakir offers the same red-zone threat as Keon Coleman, who's hauled in three touchdown catches this year.
Coleman has earned Allen's trust, drawing 15 targets in his last three games, and his 6-foot-3 frame makes him a natural target on jump balls and fades.
With the Bills likely to find success on the ground against a struggling Jets defense, play-action shots downfield could also create anytime TD value for Coleman. I'd play this up to 30%.
- Top picks: 3-3, -0.35 units
- Combos: 1-5, -2.0 units
Bills vs Jets odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Bills -7.5 | Jets +7.5
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (51%) | Under 50.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Bills 79% | Jets 21%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board and Bills vs. Jets matchup.
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Bills vs Jets weather
The forecast calls for cool, sunny conditions at MetLife Stadium, with a moderate wind for quarterbacks and kickers to navigate.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Bills vs Jets trend to know
The Bills have won five in a row against the Jets, covering the spread in each victory. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs Jets.
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How to watch Bills vs Jets
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 15, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Bills vs Jets latest injuries
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