Week 14 brings a classic NFC North showdown to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, where the Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears.
Chicago enters tied for the best record in the NFC, and my Bears vs. Packers predictions suggest oddsmakers aren’t giving the Bears the respect they’ve earned.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this marquee matchup between division foes on December 7. Coverage begins at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX.
Bears vs Packers prediction
Bears vs Packers Best bet: Bears +6.5 (-108)
Both of these teams have been winning but the Chicago Bears have done a significantly better job at covering the spread. The Green Bay Packers are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games but have gone just 3-7 against the spread during that span.
Meanwhile, the Bears are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 contests. Most of those wins came against teams with losing records but they proved they were legit last week by travelling to Philly and upsetting the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles.
Head coach Ben Johnson has Chicago's offense firing on all cylinders. The line has played much better over the last few weeks with the running back duo of Kyle Monangai and D'Andre Swift piling up yards.
Chicago is now ninth in the league in EPA/play while ranking fifth in third down conversion rate. Meanwhile, their defense does a great job forcing turnovers and leads the NFL with 2.2 takeaways per game.
The Packers have a highly-efficient offense spearheaded by Jordan Love but I'm reluctant to lay this many points in a divisional battle. Especially since the freezing 25 degree temps on Sunday could lead to a conservative gameplan from both offenses.
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Bears vs Packers same-game parlay
Green Bay RB Josh Jacobs has been hindered by a knee injury but played through it last week and ran for 83 yards on 17 carries against Detroit's solid run D. He should get a heavy workload against a Bears stop unit that is 29th in DVOA and success rate against the run.
Monangai and Swift have been splitting snaps the last few weeks but Monangai is dealing with an ankle injury. Swift has rushed for 80+ yards in five of his last seven games and he could shoulder the load if the rookie is unable to play or is less than 100%.
Bears vs Packers SGP
- Bears +6.5
- Josh Jacobs Over 77.5 rushing yards
- D'Andre Swift Over 51.5 rushing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Open door for Swift
Monangai has scored a touchdown in four-straight games but his bum ankle could lead to more red-zone snaps for Swift who has scored six TDs this year.
Bears vs Packers SGP
- Bears +6.5
- Josh Jacobs Over 77.5 rushing yards
- D'Andre Swift Over 51.5 rushing yards
- D'Andre Swift Anytime TD
Bears vs Packers game predictions
Bears vs Packers moneyline prediction
While I think this spread is a bit too wide, I expect the Packers to get the win. Lambeau is always a tough venue for visitors and the Packers are fifth in the league in DVOA while the Bears are 19th.
Bears vs Packers spread prediction
The Bears have won nine of their last 10 contests and are half a game above the Packers in the NFC North. Spotting them nearly a touchdown is too much, especially in a divisional game which tend to be competitive.
Bears vs Packers Over/Under prediction
The Under is being suppressed due to the freezing temps at Lambeau. However, there won't be any snow with barely any wind, so the offenses might not be as bad off as many seem to think.
The Packers lead the league in third-down conversion rate while Chicago is fifth, proving that both teams can march down the field with shorter chunk plays. That has me leaning towards the Over.
Bears vs Packers odds
- Spread: Bears +6.5 (-105) | Packers -6.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Bears +260 | Packers -320
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-120) | Under 43.5 (-102)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Bears vs Packers trend to know
The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Packers.
How to watch Bears vs Packers
| Location | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date | Sunday, December 7, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Bears vs Packers latest injuries
Bears vs Packers weather
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