Best NFL Picks Today

This is a pass-first offense that ranks third in PROE but really lays it on when trailing. Chuba Hubbard had four catches on five targets last week (27 yards) in a negative game script and still missed the fourth quarter after the Panthers pulled their starters. He's running routes on 55% of dropbacks and also gets looks in the red zone. This is a 5-star prop on the Covers projection page, with a projection of 19.8 yards and a fair price of 55%.

Travis Hunter broke out in Week 6, and although he wasn't running a ton of routes, he was targeted on four of his seven routes. Brian Thomas' role is falling off a cliff, and Liam Cohen is talking about "chomping away" at Hunter's increased role in the offense going forward. He isn't going to see 100 snaps, but his offensive role looks like it could slowly increase each week. The talent is there, and 13% doesn't seem like enough of an adjustment coming out of the bye. He shouldn't be less probable to score than Josh Cameron or Thomas.

I'm buying some Tony Pollard this week vs. the Bengals and willing to take this to 1.91x (52.4%). He had 28 RB opportunities last week, accounting for 88% of the backfield workload. The Titans don't want Cam Ward throwing 35 times a game, and Pollard will get fed even when trailing, especially in a neutral game script. This offense ranks dead last in PROE, and Tyjae Spears, who missed last week, had just one carry in Week 6. Pollard has one of the safest roles in any offense and has as many red-zone carries as Jonathan Taylor on the season.

Coming back from Europe with no bye is a death sentence for most teams, as they're a cool 0-8 ATS in the last eight of these situations. Pittsburgh's offense didn't look great vs. the Saints, so the TD choice in this game is pretty easy for me. The Steelers have allowed the fewest rushing TDs to opposing running backs in football, but after hitting Denzel Boston for two weeks with nothing to show for it, it's KC Concepcion for me. He had 10 targets last week and passed Boston for the team lead in target share. He also carried the ball three times, which is something the Browns might have to get creative with again this week against that Pittsburgh defense. I got this at 27% and would buy at 29%.

Aaron Jones exited last week, but even before the injury, Jordan Mason was eating up the biggest share of the RB pie with 57% of the backfield opportunities. Jones has always struggled to stay healthy and aggravated an existing knee injury last week. Mason could be the lead back on a defense-first team that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in PROE.  The Lions are one of seven teams allowing 27+ points per game and rank 27th in red-zone TD%. Jones didn't practice Wednesday, and this price should be 54% if he's out.

Baker is back, and the Buccaneers didn't need to pass much last week, finishing with the lowest PROE in football. That will be very tough to replicate, which should mean a bigger workload for Chris Godwin, who operated as WR1 with Emeka Egbuka out. Egbuka is dealing with multiple injuries, including a concussion, so his return to the field isn't guaranteed this week. The worst Godwin can be is WR2 against a defense that has given up 105 points over its last four games. I got this at 27% and would play to 32% if Egbuka sits and 30% if he plays.

Sunday’s trip to Dallas is a pass-positive game script for the large road underdog and while QB Jacoby Brissett has fallen off a cliff, he faces a soft Cowboys secondary making all QBs look like Pro Bowlers (opponent passer rating of 105.2). Most of Wilson's Week 8 projections sit north of 60 yards with a ceiling of 70 yards receiving. My forecast comes out to 63+ yards,  buying back a market that was as high as 80+ just three games ago.

Only the Bills' defense is allowing more TDs to opposing WRs than the Raiders. Since Week 3, this defense ranks dead last in EPA/play, success rate, and dropback success rate. Omar Cooper still ripped off 115 yards and a score last week despite the return of Adonai Mitchell and the team running just 53 plays. He's gone for 100+ yards and a score in back-to-back weeks. His efficiency is off the charts right now, and he shouldn't be priced 100 points longer than Garrett Wilson. I have Cooper at 30%.

Buffalo has had two weeks to rest and prep for Jackson and the Ravens, coming off a Week 7 bye. That also allows the Bills to get difference makers back on both sides of the ball, including WR1 D.J. Moore and DE Ed Oliver. Not only is Buffalo holding the rest edge, but this is its first home game in new Highmark Stadium in nearly a month. 

The Rams went with heavy TE sets last week without Davante Adams in the lineup, and Colby Parkinson stood out again while Tyler Higbee's targets continued to fall. However, Parkinson picked up a rib injury and didn't practice Wednesday, which could open the door for Davis Allen to step up. Allen had two TDs last week on five targets and could see some run as TE1 if Parkinson sits. He's also being used well in the red zone, with four RZ targets over his last three games. Terrance Ferguson is also out, creating the potential for a big role in an indoor game. Allen is at 15% but should be priced closer to 24%, around Higbee's current price.

Eli Raridon has been on my TD radar since opening night vs. the Seahawks. He added another score last week and has 50+ yards in two of his last three games, along with a red-zone target in four straight contests. Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are out, and A.J. Brown was limited at practice Wednesday. The rookie tight end has value at 5x or better as a legitimate red-zone threat on a team that's struggling to run the ball. I wouldn't go past 22% or 4.5x.

I recommend the Denver moneyline to 51%. The Broncos have won three straight with 23.3 points per game since head coach Sean Payton took over play-calling duties, and the defense has allowed the fourth-lowest EPA per play while ranking fifth in DVOA for the year. Kansas City has also dropped three straight games at Mile High, and Denver paces the NFL in PFF pass rush grade while ranking sixth in pass rush win rate.

Williams has carved out a spot as Washington’s top slot option, playing the inside position on almost half his snaps. That matches up well against Philadelphia, which has struggled to contain slot receivers this season. Williams caught all four balls his way for 64 yards and a touchdown in his pro debut versus the Eagles in Week 1. His Week 8 projections all sit north of 30 yards with a ceiling of 46+. My number boils down to 37 yards from the Commanders’ first-year receiver.