Two teams coming off extremely different performances meet under the lights tonight at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind., at 8 p.m. ET (FOX), as Purdue hosts Washington.
The Boilermakers are 3.5-point favorites, but my Washington vs. Purdue prediction and college football picks expect the Huskies to keep it close on Friday, Oct. 16, despite their precarious QB situation.
TOP PICK
Who will win Washington vs Purdue: Washington +3.5
Washington is riding a three-game losing streak, and starting QB Demond Williams Jr. is questionable against Purdue. However, the Boilermakers are in a clear letdown spot, and I'd take Washington to cover +2.5 or better.
Last week, Purdue upset a Minnesota team in a letdown spot, winning the Little Brown Jug for just the fifth time since 1968. Now, the Boilermakers face a hungry Huskies program desperate for a win.
Even if Williams doesn't go, backup Elijah Brown can challenge Purdue, one of the country's worst defenses. The former blue-chip recruit posted a 90.9 QBR last week while relieving the injured Williams against an Iowa defense ranked No. 15 by SP+. Purdue's defense is 100th.
COVERS INTEL: Purdue's defense allows 400.7 yards per game, the seventh-most in the Power Four (P4). It ranks 128th nationally in available yards percentage (60.2%) and outside the Top 115 in both early-down EPA per play and third- and fourth-down success.
Washington vs Purdue Over/Under pick: Over 51.5
Purdue is one of the best Over teams in the country, thanks to its defense. The Boilermakers are 5-1 to the Over this season and have hit it in all four home games (4-0), which is why I like the Over at 53.5 or better.
Purdue has allowed 38 or more points against three of its five P4 opponents this season. Although Washington has struggled offensively because of its offensive line issues, that might not be a problem against the Boilermakers. Purdue is tied for the sixth-fewest sacks in the P4 (seven) and ranks 14th in the Big Ten in havoc rate (13.8%).
However, Purdue's offense has been impressive and should do enough to push this game Over the total, even against a strong Washington defense. The Boilermakers rank 10th nationally in net adjusted EPA per play and have scored 24+ points in four of their five P4 games.
Washington vs Purdue prop: Washington TT Over 23.5
Washington has been offensively challenged this season, but I like Jedd Fisch's team to go Over 23.5 or better. The Huskies have faced a tough schedule, with all five FBS opponents ranked in the Top 70 in SP+ defense.
This is the worst FBS defense Washington has seen by a large margin, and Purdue is still without its best defensive back, Mister Clark. Whether it's Williams or Brown at QB, the Huskies should move the ball consistently against a defense ranked 130th in net EPA per drive.
Purdue struggles the most against the pass, sitting 115th in pass success rate on defense (50%), and Washington is a pass-first team.
Washington vs Purdue combo
Coming off two straight upset wins against overrated teams, Purdue could lose this game outright, especially on a short week. Washington has an underrated defense that's 26th nationally in net EPA per play and 13th in EPA per rush.
Purdue has been inconsistent against strong defensive teams. The Boilermakers have played two teams with defenses ranked in the Top 35 by SP+ and failed to cover in both those games (losing by an average of 26.5 points). Washington's defense ranks 32nd.
Even with the Huskies' QB situation, their massive defensive advantage could help them pull off the upset.
Washington vs Purdue combo
- Washington +3.5
- Over 51.5
- Purdue team total Under 27.5
- Top picks: 13-9, +2.73 units
- Combos: 5-17, -1.84 units
Washington vs Purdue odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Washington +3.5 | Purdue -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (52%) | Under 51.5 (48%)
- Moneyline: Washington 39% | Purdue 61%
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Washington vs Purdue weather
The weather shouldn't be an issue by kickoff, but the forecast does call for rain in West Lafayette leading up to the game.
That could impact the field conditions at Ross-Ade Stadium, which is natural grass.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Washington vs Purdue trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Purdue's last five home games. Find more college football betting trends for Washington vs. Purdue.
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How to watch Washington vs Purdue
| Location | Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Ind. |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 16, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Washington vs Purdue latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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