Texas heads to Knoxville as a 5.5-point favorite for a marquee SEC matchup against Tennessee at Neyland Stadium on Saturday.
My early Texas vs. Tennessee predictions discuss the tried-and-true college sports angle of backing home underdogs in conference games.
Find more analysis in our college football picks for September 26, and don't miss kickoff at noon ET on ABC.
Texas vs Tennessee predictions
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Early Texas vs Tennessee spread pick: Tennessee +5.5
Give me Tennessee down to +3.5 at home against Texas on Saturday.
I'm using an old-school handicapping angle of fading the higher-rated team as a road favorite in conference play. I expect most of the public action to be on Texas after its crazy come-from-behind win over then-No. 1 Ohio State two weeks ago.
That said, I'm siding with ESPN's Bill Connelly, who thinks this matchup is closer than the market does. Connelly ranks Texas sixth in his SP+ Ratings and makes the Longhorns 4-point favorites, while Tennessee ranks 10th.
Also, the Volunteers have a higher early-down EPA per play on both sides of the ball, per GameOnPaper.com. Early-down efficiency is predictive because the whole playbook is available on first and second downs, rather than being forced into obvious passing situations.
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Early Texas vs Tennessee total pick: Under 55.5
I'm much more confident in Tennessee ATS, but I lean toward the Under down to 53.5, because 55 is the most important key number for college football totals.
Furthermore, Texas' offense looks shaky. I'm not tripping about the Longhorns only scoring 24 points against Ohio State, which could have the most talented defense in the country.
But Texas scoring just 30 points against UTSA last week is a little concerning. The Longhorns had less than 5.0 yards per play against Ohio State and UTSA, and the Under cashed in both games.
Finally, I'm counting on a run-heavy game plan from Tennessee's offense, which means a lot more time coming off the clock. The Volunteers have four returning starters on their offensive line and rank second nationally in rushing yards per game against FBS schools.
Texas vs Tennessee odds
- Texas vs Tennessee spread: Texas -5.5 (52%), Tennessee +5.5 (53%)
- Texas vs Tennessee moneyline: Texas 69%, Tennessee 36%
- Texas vs Tennessee Over/Under: 55.5
How to watch Texas vs Tennessee
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, noon ET
- City: Knoxville, Tenn.
- Venue: Neyland Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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