Week 11's Friday slate may feature just three games, but two of the teams taking the field are College Football Playoff hopefuls.
Both UCLA and Houston are double-digit favorites, and my Week 11 Friday night football picks back the Bruins' defense and the Cougars' offense to be the difference in their matchups.
My Friday night college football picks also fade a Florida State program in the middle of an ugly season.
Week 11 Friday night college football picks
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| Matchup | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Florida Statevs  Pitt |
-3.5 |
48% |
 Illinoisvs  UCLA |
-9.5 |
53% |
 Houstonvs  Colorado |
-9.5 |
50% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Friday night picks this week
Florida State vs Pitt: Pitt -3.5
In Florida State's first game after firing Mike Norvell, interim coach Rick Stockstill managed to get his alma mater a win, but that was against a Boston College team ranked 95th by SP+.
Pitt is 35th and can cover up to -6.5 against a Seminoles team with an astronomical number of players out on the ACC injury report.
While Pitt hasn't been the same since losing starting QB Mason Heintschel for the season a few weeks ago, the Panthers have found something in running back Damon Ferguson Jr. The freshman is coming off an 185-yard rushing performance and can carry the load against an FSU defense ranked 110th in rush success rate (47.1%).
As for the Seminoles' offense, they've lost so many playmakers to injury already that it's hard to imagine them finding much success against a Pat Narduzzi defense ranked 10th nationally in success rate (37.8%). Florida State will be without four of its top six playmakers, putting even more on QB Ashton Daniels, who leads the country in interceptions (12).
Illinois vs UCLA: UCLA -9.5
No matter who UCLA plays, the Bruins cover. They're 9-0 ATS in Bob Chesney's first season at the helm and have covered as double-digit favorites four times. Taking UCLA to cover against Illinois is among my favorite Top 25 predictions this week, and I would back the Bruins up to -12.5 against a Fighting Illini team making a cross-country trip.
While backing UCLA to cover yet again is all about their elite defense, their offense has actually weathered the storm of losing starting QB Nico Iamaleava. Backup QB Ty Dieffenbach has a respectable 68.9 QBR, and he has one of the best running back tandems in the country in Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods (1,313 combined rushing yards and 21 total TDs). They'll be a problem for an Illinois defense ranked 131st in success rate (49.5%).
The bigger problem for the Fighting Illini, though, will be scoring. UCLA leads the country in net EPA per play on defense and ranks No. 2 in defensive success rate (33.7%).
The key to a cover will be pressuring Katin Houser and keeping Collin Dixon quiet, but I'm not worried about how disruptive the Bruins' defense is, ranking sixth in havoc rate (21.2%).
Houston vs Colorado: Houston -9.5
It was getting late early last season for Deion Sanders, and now it's like a total lunar eclipse in Boulder, with Colorado being just 3-15 since the start of 2024 against Power Four opponents. That includes being 5-13 ATS in those games.
Against the best offense in the Big 12, the Buffaloes don't stand a chance, and I would play Houston up to -13.5.
The Cougars lead the country in offensive success rate (53.1%), rank No. 2 in available yards percentage (64.6%), and are one of only two P4 teams averaging 250+ passing yards and 200+ rushing yards per game.
Behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, Conner Weigman has been unstoppable this season, ranking fifth in QBR (84.8). He and his trio of star pass catchers (Amare Thomas, Patrick Overmyer, Trent Walker) will light up a Colorado defense that ranks 98th in EPA per dropback.
I'm not worried about Isaac Wilson and the Buffaloes offense keeping up, as Colorado sits 108th in offensive success rate (41.1%) and 119th in available yards percentage (38.6%).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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