Despite being only 30 miles apart, Saturday, Sept. 5 will be the first time the Texas State Bobcats and Texas Longhorns meet in nearly 100 years. Relatively speaking, these programs are much closer in distance than in championship hopes.
As +30.5 underdogs, it'll be a miracle if the Bobcats can drive to Austin and beat the Longhorns in Week 1. Spoiler alert: My Texas State vs. Texas prediction isn't an upset, but rather a brutal beating by one of the favorites to win the national title.
Check out all of our college football picks for the opening weekend.
TOP PICK
Texas State vs Texas prediction: Texas -30.5
Between overall talent, continuity and returning production, the Texas Longhorns are rightfully the third- or fourth-betting favorite in the national championship odds.
Given their slow start to last season (0-3 against the spread in its first three games), I'm expecting Texas to make a statement in Week 1 and put a 50-burger on the Texas State Bobcats.
One of the favorites in the Heisman Trophy odds, Texas QB Arch Manning has more than enough help with last year's team leader in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in wide receiver Ryan Wingo, and preseason first-team All-America WR Cam Coleman.
The Longhorns have beaten the brakes off inferior, non-conference opponents in recent years, featuring a 55-0 win over Sam Houston State last season, and three 48+ victories over non-Power 4 schools in 2024.
COVERS INTEL: Longhorns EDGE Colin Simmons is a game-wrecker who led the SEC with 12.0 sacks last season. 
Texas State vs Texas combo
Texas State dual-threat QB Brad Jackson and his two 1,000+ yard receivers, Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn, returned this season. The Bobcats should be up against it Saturday, and their offense will be desperate to keep up with the Longhorns.
Furthermore, Texas State's defense is 98th in returning production from last year's team, according to ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly, and its offense ranks 12th.
Even though Texas State should chip in on the Over leg of my combo cashing, Texas's defense is so good it could get defensive scores and give its offense short fields, leading to easy touchdowns.
Texas State vs Texas combo
- Texas -30.5
- Over 59.5
Texas State vs Texas odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Texas State +30.5 (46%) | Texas -30.5 (54%)
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 (49%) | Under 59.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Texas State 3% | Texas 99%
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Texas State vs Texas weather
It's going to be hot in Austin (93° expected temperature) Saturday with a slight chance of rain (17%).
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Texas State vs Texas trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Longhorns' last four games as a favorite. Find more college football betting trends for Texas State vs. Texas.
How to watch Texas State vs Texas
| Location | DKR-Texas Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Texas State vs Texas latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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