Week 7 brings several heavy favorites and a few survivor traps hiding in plain sight. My NFL Survivor picks separate the strongest path from a risky alternative, and two teams to avoid.
Check out our other NFL picks for Week 7.
Vikings
Rams
Texans
49ersPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Week 7 Survivor Pool first look
The Denver Broncos over the Arizona Cardinals is a "safe option" worth considering. Denver is 7-1 straight up (SU) as a road favorite with a +7.0 margin of victory since hiring Sean Payton in 2023, and Arizona just won its Super Bowl by upsetting the Los Angeles Rams on the road in Week 6.
The Cleveland Browns over the Tennessee Titans is a solid "contrarian pick" this week. Cleveland beat the first-place Carolina Panthers and the 4-2 Pittsburgh Steelers, while this could be a let-down game for Tennessee, which got its first win Sunday after knocking off the Indianapolis Colts on the road.
Don't take the New York Jets over the Miami Dolphins in Week 6. The Jets are poorly coached and terrible in the trenches. You probably shouldn't use the Jets in survivor this season unless they are playing a team in Week 18 that is resting its starters.
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Teams to target in Week 7
Safe pick: Vikings (vs Colts)
Minnesota is coming off a bye and Indianapolis is in disarray having just fired longtime general manager Chris Ballard after losing at home to the Tennessee Titans in Week 6. Per Pro Football Focus, Colts QB Daniel Jones is 33rd out 37 qualifiers in offensive grade while under pressure, and the Vikings lead the NFL in quarterback pressure rate on defense.
Risky pick: Rams (@ Raiders)
Despite being 2-4, the Rams still have the fifth-best price at Kalshi to win the Super Bowl, and they are 12-3 SU with a +8.7 scoring margin as road favorites after a loss under Sean McVay. Las Vegas doesn't have a quality win this year and have lost three straight games to teams with similar power ratings as the Rams.
Teams to avoid in Week 7
Texans (vs Giants)
This is a bad spot for Houston, which beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in London this past weekend. Teams are 0-2-1 SU and 0-3 against the spread in their first game back from London. The Texans will be the most popular team in survivor in Week 6, and the most-used team in survivor has lost in back-to-back weeks.
49ers (@ Falcons)
San Francisco plays at home on Monday Night Football in Week 6 and has to travel across the country for a 1 p.m. ET game in Atlanta on a short week against a Falcons team that is good at stopping the run and leads the league in net quarterback pressure rate, per Pro.NFL.com.
Week 7 Survivor Pool strategy
Not only do I have a weird feeling about the Niners this week, but they have great future value. The 49ers host the Raiders after their bye in Week 9 and the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17, who just announced starting QB Jalen Hurts will be out for the rest of the season.
Another "contrarian pick" is the Carolina Panthers over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are probably starting undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels again. The Panthers continued to be underrated in the market and this is a division game, so they shouldn't be popular this week.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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