With Steve Sarkisian and Arch Manning's seats getting hotter, Texas will be desperate for a win when it hosts Ole Miss at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
The Longhorns are 3.5-point favorites, and despite two straight losses, my Ole Miss vs. Texas predictions and college football picks back Sarkisian and Manning to get back in the win column.
Ole Miss vs Texas predictions
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Early Ole Miss vs Texas spread pick: Texas -3.5
Everything has gone wrong for Texas lately, but despite losing to Florida by three last week, I like the Longhorns to cover -5.5 or better against Ole Miss. Remember, these Rebels lost by 24 to those Gators a few weeks ago.
Although Ole Miss just beat Missouri 31-3, Trinidad Chambliss had arguably his worst game of the season, frequently missing throws and putting up just a 65.7% adjusted completion percentage. He can't afford to struggle against a Texas defense that's third nationally in net adjusted EPA per play.
Even with Colin Simmons out, the Longhorns' defense can be the difference. It ranks top 25 in the country in havoc rate (20%), success rate (38.3%), and available yards percentage (31.2%).
In what will be a high-scoring game, Texas' defense should only need a few stops to beat Ole Miss by 4+ points. And at some point, Chambliss constantly needing to put on the Superman cape will catch up to the Rebels.
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Early Ole Miss vs Texas total pick: Over 53.5
Although the Texas defense is the strongest unit in this game, Ole Miss' style of play lends well to hitting the Over, something the Rebels have done in all three of their Power Four games away from home.
Even with Arch Manning's struggles, I like the Over at 54.5 or better. Ole Miss' defense ranks just 65th nationally in success rate (43.5%) and 89th in net EPA per drive. The Rebels are allowing the most yards per game in the SEC (390), with opponents rushing for 153.5 on them (14th-most in the P4).
That's why Chambliss, who ranks top 20 in the country in QBR (83.4) and TD passes (14), is constantly having to go hero mode to lead Ole Miss to wins. He has the Rebels top 10 in points per opportunity (4.86) and offensive success rate (51.9%).
And this is the perfect bounce-back opportunity for Manning, especially with Texas' offensive line talent and running back duo set to take advantage of the Ole Miss defense. I have the Longhorns winning 31-24.
Ole Miss vs Texas odds
- Ole Miss vs Texas spread: Texas -3.5
- Ole Miss vs Texas moneyline: Ole Miss 42%, Texas 58%
- Ole Miss vs Texas Over/Under: 53.5
How to watch Ole Miss vs Texas
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Austin, Texas
- Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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